The NCAA men’s lacrosse committee’s most difficult decision might have been made for it Sunday morning.

Loyola’s withdrawal from the Patriot League tournament due to a positive COVID-19 test in the team’s Tier 1 testing pool means the Greyhounds won’t have a chance to claim an automatic berth. It also throws into question whether Loyola would be available for an NCAA tournament first-round game next week.

After Saturday’s play, the committee’s at-large math appeared clear. Four ACC teams are near-certain to be seeded in the top five. Denver and Syracuse, while not perfect, are good bets to claim berths.

That leaves two spots for three teams: Army, Rutgers and the Patriot League runner-up. With Lehigh taking the automatic berth in a no-contest, Loyola is the third team in this mix.

Quantifiable accomplishments clearly favor the two Patriot League schools. Army won at Syracuse in February and Loyola in April. Loyola stunned Georgetown to close the regular season, took the rubber game of three from Navy on Tuesday and then salvaged a season split with Army on Friday.

And then there’s Rutgers, with zero victories over teams with winning records and a loss to 4-9 Johns Hopkins. Of the teams in the mix for the final spot, Loyola’s setback at 6-8 Towson in late March is the only misstep in the same area code as the Scarlet Knights’ Big Ten semifinal loss.

In a sense, it would be an appropriate comeuppance for the Big Ten to find itself as one-bid territory. The league’s decision not to participate in any non-conference games when nearly every other conference permitted them played an oversized role in creating the committee’s near-impossible task of comparing teams.

Even if each Big Ten team played only a couple non-conference games, the value of contests with manageable travel like Johns Hopkins-Loyola, Maryland-Virginia (a series that was supposed to resume last year), Ohio State-Notre Dame, Penn State-Villanova and Rutgers-Army mixed into the data would be immense.

At the same time, it takes a cold, cold heart to have no sympathy for Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights had near-misses in 2016, 2017 and (to a lesser degree) 2018, and Brian Brecht’s program is due for its first NCAA trip since 2004 — and overdue for a Selection Sunday break.

But not like this.

Loyola had finally figured things out after a couple frustrating months, winning four in a row to charge into at-large contention. It was going to have a chance to render the issue moot Sunday afternoon in the final game of the regular season, the only contest standing between the committee and its final verdict in this most unusual of years.

Instead, it’s an only-in-2021 conclusion. Loyola is sidelined, definitely for today and possibly for longer. The uncertain availability would make it easier to plug Army and Rutgers into the final two spots and call it a day.

Easier, in this case, isn’t better. It’s just a reminder the pandemic that’s done so much to upend everything in the last 14 months is still collecting collateral damage. 

Automatic Qualifiers (8)

It’s going to be difficult to hand Maryland the top overall seed given the impossible-to-avoid questions about the Big Ten’s strength. It’s also going to be difficult to drop the undefeated Terrapins much further than the No. 2 seed. … Georgetown can comfortably take in Selection Sunday after defeating Denver for its third consecutive Big East tournament title. The Hoyas should land the No. 6 or No. 7 seed. …

Drexel isn’t going to be seeded, but the Dragons are a team no one should want to deal with in the first round. Winners of nine in a row, Drexel is a threat to at least match its quarterfinal trip from its only other tournament appearance in 2014. … Bryant is cooking heading into the NCAA tournament, scoring 70 goals in its last four games. That includes a 16-10 drubbing of Saint Joseph’s in the Northeast title game. …

Congrats to Vermont, the only first-time participant in this year’s NCAA tournament field. The Catamounts shrugged off Albany in the America East title game, and their distance from any of the anticipated sites makes them a prime candidate to get shipped to Denver to play the Pioneers or Notre Dame. … It just makes too much sense to pair High Point with either Duke or North Carolina for a first-round game. The Southern Conference champs faced both teams earlier this season. …

Lehigh picked up the Patriot League’s automatic berth as part of the fallout from Loyola’s withdrawal from the conference tournament. At 10-1, the Mountain Hawks stand a decent chance to be the No. 7 or No. 8 seed. … After having its first eight games decided by a combined 12 goals, Monmouth won its final two games in the Metro Atlantic tournament by a total of 12 goals. The Hawks are making their second NCAA trip.

At-Large (12 teams/8 slots)

North Carolina will make its 33rd NCAA tournament appearance overall and 10th under Joe Breschi but its first since 2017. The Tar Heels could be the No. 1 seed for the first time since 1993. … Like North Carolina, Duke beat everyone in the ACC at least once. It is hard to see the Blue Devils falling further than the No. 3 seed in their 24th NCAA appearance and 14th in a row. …

Still the most recent national champions, Virginia will make its 40th NCAA tournament appearance. Only Johns Hopkins (47) and Maryland (this year will be the Terrapins’ 43rd) have more. … Notre Dame will make its 25th NCAA tournament under Kevin Corrigan. That’s the most for any coach at a single school and the third-most appearances overall, behind Bill Tierney and Dom Starsia. …

Syracuse is an interesting case in this particular season. The good (sweep of Virginia) and bad (four blowout losses) are well known. The right call is to let the Orange in as an unseeded team. … So here’s the question for Army: Does its victory in February at Syracuse carry enough weight to get it in? Its thumping of Loyola in Baltimore last month also looks better by the day. …

Is Denver in a dicey situation? Probably not. The guess here is the Pioneers pop up as the No. 7 or No. 8 seed and have one of the most intriguing matchups of the first round. … Is Loyola going to be available to play within a week after its positive virus test? It is a discussion the selection committee will no doubt be having today. ...

There just isn’t a strong enough argument to get Delaware into the field, but Ben DeLuca clearly has things cooking in Newark. The Blue Hens will be in contention again, and soon. … Navy is another rising program, but the Midshipmen’s overall profile probably isn’t going to get them over the top. They should, however, be one of the handful of teams just on the outside of the field. …

Take a look at that chart, and the loss to Johns Hopkins sticks out for Rutgers. If the Scarlet Knights don’t make it, that will be the reason why. … Villanova didn’t do anything dumb, but it also didn’t take full advantage of its opportunities. That it nearly did so means the Wildcats were probably part of the committee’s discussions this week.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• The NCAA plans to use four predetermined first-round sites that it will announce on Selection Sunday, with two games played at each. This bracket was constructed under the assumption Denver, Maryland, North Carolina and Virginia will be the host schools.

• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-16 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.

• Quarterfinal hosts are funneled into their home sites. So whichever quadrant of the bracket Notre Dame lands in will play a second-weekend game on the Fighting Irish’s home field. The same would be true for Hofstra if it wins the Colonial tournament.

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal    

(1) North Carolina vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Monmouth (at North Carolina)
(8) PATRIOT/Lehigh vs. Syracuse (at Maryland)

Notre Dame, Ind., quarterfinal

(5) Notre Dame vs. AMERICA EAST/Vermont (at Denver)
(4) Virginia vs. COLONIAL/Drexel (at Virginia)

Notre Dame, Ind., quarterfinal

(3) Duke vs. SOUTHERN/High Point (at North Carolina)
(6) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. Rutgers (at Virginia)

Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal    

(7) Denver vs. Army (at Denver)
(2) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. NORTHEAST/Bryant (at Maryland)

Last three included: Syracuse, Army, Rutgers
First three on the outside: Loyola, Navy, Villanova

Moving in: Bryant, Monmouth
Moving out: Manhattan, Saint Joseph’s

Conference call: Atlantic Coast (5), Big East (2), Big Ten (2), Patriot (2)