5 Bold Predictions for the 2021 Division I Women's Lacrosse Season

To some degree, any and all predictions as they pertain to the upcoming lacrosse season are bold. In a COVID world, the only thing that’s certain is uncertainty.

We can still take a shot, right? Lacrosse is back, and it feels so good. There’s a reason that statement graces the dual covers of our February 2021 magazine. Let’s ride that high and project just a little.

The most anticipated lacrosse season in the sport’s history is upon us, with the first women’s games of 2021 scheduled for Friday. Let’s live in the moment and enjoy the ride while these five bold predictions come to fruition.

DUKE IS BACK

It’s been four years since Duke, once one of the preeminent powerhouses of Division I women’s lacrosse, has made the NCAA tournament. It’s been three years since Duke posted a .500 record or better in ACC play.

The conference around Duke has gotten better, with marked improvements by Notre Dame and Boston College in recent years shaking up the hierarchy of the ACC. And even though the ACC is still deep — North Carolina, Notre Dame and Syracuse are all in the top four of the Nike/US Lacrosse Top 20 — Duke is poised to make its grand return to the big leagues.

Even with six of 10 ACC games against the aforementioned three teams, the Duke offense is loud enough to make plenty of noise. Adding Penn transfer Gabby Rosenzweig and her steadying veteran presence will only improve an offense that averaged 17.67 points per game last year, which ranked fifth in the nation.

With Maddie Jenner dominating the draw and Caroline DeBellis, Catriona Barry, Katie Cronin and Catherine Cordrey all back, the offense will again be strong. All Duke needs to do is play defense. In the team’s 6-3 start to 2020, it posted a scoring margin of 7.11 — ninth-best in the country.

Duke starts 2021 ranked No. 15 in the Top 20, but the Blue Devils are candidates to rise.

SHANNON KAVANAGH BREAKS PROGRAM SINGLE-SEASON GOALS RECORD

In 2019, Lindsey Ronbeck needed 21 games to score 89 goals, establishing a new Florida single-season record. With enough games, Shannon Kavanagh will crack 90.

The senior midfielder has steadily progressed her scoring numbers since her freshman season. She scored 1.7 goals per game over 21 contests in 2018, 3.28 goals per game over 21 games in 2019 and 4.25 goals per game over eight games in the shortened 2021. Had she kept up that pace, she would have scored 89 goals in 21 games.

It’s logical to expect even more progression. Kavanagh had to do much of the heavy lifting for the Gators in 2020 as the team’s young players acclimated to the starting lineup. Coach Amanda O’Leary considers last spring something of a crash course to college lacrosse for those underclassmen, who now return as more capable options to take pressure of Kavanagh.

The Gators are a dangerous team, and Kavanagh is the star. The goals record is within reach. Of course, it’s all predicated on how many games the Gators actually get to play.

STANFORD STAKES ITS CLAIM ON THE PAC-12

USC has been the class of the Pac-12 for several years, rising as high as No. 8 in last year’s Nike/US Lacrosse Top 20, while Stanford and Colorado have teetered on the cusp of the rankings.

The landscape of the Pac-12 looks vastly different entering 2021. That’s not to say that USC is irrelevant, as Lindsey Munday’s Women of Troy are still stocked with talent. But the Cardinal appear ready to make a significant jump.

They were 3-4 last year, but one-goal, ranked losses to Virginia and USC could have easily swung the other way. Mikaela Watson was a bona fide West Coast star, while Jay Browne, Ali Baiocco, Katherine Gjertsen and Galen Lew provided ample support. And there’s more help on the way.

Stanford coach Danielle Spencer is welcoming in three five-star, top-25 recruits. Ashley Humphrey and Sarah Jacques, attackers from Darien (Conn.) High School, are instant difference-makers. Ailish Kelly, a midfielder from Bayport-Blue Point (N.Y.) High School, is another impact player.

There are certainly still questions, mostly on defense and in goal, but Stanford is poised to make a jump.

THE ALL-TIME ASSIST MARK FALLS

In 2018, Kylie Ohlmiller set the all-time assists record and finished her storied Stony Brook career with 246. By season’s end, there will be a new No. 1.

Kailey Conry, the former Boston U. standout now at Denver, and Katie Hoeg, North Carolina’s all-time points leader, both need career-best seasons, but the top spot isn’t an impossibility. Conry is closest, needing 80 assists to tie Ohlmiller, but Hoeg probably has the easier path despite needing 86 more.

Conry steps into a new team, and her role is a little less defined. Hoeg, on the other hand, is the primary feeder on what’s expected to be one of the top offenses in the country. She had 73 assists in 2019 and 26 in 2020, albeit in six games. Had she kept up last year’s pace, she would have totaled 91 assists.

The Tar Heels have an embarrassment of offensive riches. Jamie Ortega, Scottie Rose Growney, Tayler Warehime and Ally Mastroianni are back. Caitlyn Wurzburger, one of the best high school players of all time, is in the fold. Katie Bourque, Dartmouth’s leading scorer last year, transferred in. As did Kerrigan Miller, a gritty, do-it-all midfielder.

With those options and what’s anticipated to be a deep run through the NCAA tournament, Hoeg could challenge Ohlmiller.

THE TEWAARATON FINALISTS

Emily Hawryschuk: The graduate student is one of the best pure scorers in the country and anchors a Syracuse team with the talent to make a run at a championship. In 2019, she scored 75 goals.

Shannon Kavanagh: For every reason mentioned above, Kavanagh is a Tewaaraton candidate. But what wasn’t talked about earlier is her mastery of the draw. She’s controlled 238 draws in 50 career games and is truly Florida’s offensive catalyst.

Ally Kennedy: The US Lacrosse Magazine Preseason Player of the Year is a relentless midfielder who impacts the game on offense, defense and the draw.

Jamie Ortega: Ortega enters this season tied for fourth in UNC history in goals (183) and fifth in points (243). She’s a lethal scorer, leading the nation last year with a shooting percentage of 76.2.