Lacrosse Reference goes beyond the box score. Beyond the basics, if you will.
Lacrosse Reference was created in 2016 with the goal of bringing the analytical methods used in other sports to college lacrosse. The site’s focus has been on finding innovative ways to compare teams and players that are more nuanced than the broad-brush metrics that were common at the time.
As we head into the 2022 season, these are the metrics that matter about the teams in our Nike/USA Lacrosse Division I Men’s Preseason Top 20.
For a glossary of terms, head here.
1. VIRGINIA
GROUND BALL WIN RATE
Virginia ended 2021 with a second consecutive national title and the most ground balls per game (41.9) in the country. The ground ball totals title feels like a birthright for the Hoos at this point. But you aren’t the best ground ball unit by winning the most ground balls. You win that title by winning the highest percentage of the ground balls. And on that measure, Virginia was No. 14 nationally (52.3 percent); good, but not great. Rate stats are greater than counting stats.
2. MARYLAND
INDIVIDUAL ASSIST RATE PERCENTILE
Losing Jared Bernhardt is going to, by definition, give the Maryland offense a different feel. No offense to the guys, but I doubt they have another athlete available who could drop his stick and go win a football national title. The question is, who generates the offense for the Terps this year? Having Logan Wisnauskas on hand is a good fallback option; his individual assist rate (assists divided by play share) puts him in the 74th percentile nationally in terms of assists-per-touch. If he can avoid letting turnovers creep up with the increased role, Maryland will likely be just fine.
3. DUKE
ASSIST-TO-TURNOVER RATIO
Michael Sowers was the attackman that got the attention, and he was great. But based on the defensive schemes that teams employed against Duke, he wasn’t the key to the offense. That was Joe Robertson. When Robertson had more turnovers than assists, Duke was 0-3 and put up an offensive efficiency of just 19 percent. When he had as many (or more) assists compared to turnovers, Duke was 15-0 and the efficiency rating was 35 percent.
4. GEORGETOWN
EXCESS SAVES
The 71 percent save percentage that Owen McElroy put up last year was impressive. Heck, the entire Georgetown defense was impressive. But when you dig into the numbers, another stat may be even more impressive. Based on the expected shooting percentage of the shots he faced, McElroy prevented 14.9 more goals than you’d expect an average goalie to stop. Sometimes the quality of the defensive effort means goalies with high save percentages make the saves they should make and no more. That was not the case here.
5. NOTRE DAME
CLEAN FO WIN RATE
Faceoffs were a huge strength for the Irish last season. With the losses of Kyle Gallagher and Charles Leonard, the stripe immediately switches into a huge question mark for Kevin Corrigan’s squad. To highlight how good their FOGOs were last year, we can split out their overall win rate based on whether a FOGO or a wing picked up the ground ball. When wings were involved, Notre Dame’s FO win rate was 57 percent (pretty good). When the FOGO picked up the ground ball, they won 65 percent (really good).
6. NORTH CAROLINA
LATE POSSESSION SHOOTING PERCENTAGE
UNC’s offense was otherworldly last year. Their defense, not so much. If you want to diagnose the issues with UNC’s defensive unit, late possession offense seems like a good place to start. Across all of Division I men’s lacrosse, teams shot 26.9 percent in the last 20 seconds of the shot clock. In general, shooting percentage drops with every second that comes off the clock. Against UNC though? Teams shot 32.2 percent in the last 20 seconds of the shot clock. Something to work on for this year.
7. LOYOLA
USAGE-ADJUSTED EGA
I’ll be interested to see if Joey Kamish can stay healthy this year and if he can carry forward his remarkable efficiency into 2022. Kamish was the second-most efficient player in the nation during his injury-shortened season a year ago. His 6.72 usage-adjusted EGA came from a 14-point effort (across five games) in which he had more ground balls (5) than turnovers (4).
8. YALE
OPPONENT LAXELO RATING
What to say about a team that hasn’t played in almost two years? Well, we can look forward at their schedule and see what the win probability model thinks about their slate. The average LaxElo rating of the Bulldogs’ opponents is 1600 (equivalent to the 26th-best team in the country). Their schedule ranks as the 14th-most difficult of any team.
9. PENN
ASSIST-TO-TURNOVER RATIO
When you think of Sam Handley, the image is a big goal-scoring machine. But don’t sleep on his ability to generate offense for others. His career assist-to-turnover ratio is .875, which is good for the 88th percentile all-time. And going a level deeper, his assists-per-touch rate is actually in the 96th percentile. Time to adjust that mental image.
10. RUTGERS
INCOMING TRANSFER EGA
Rutgers is losing a lot of production from last year’s team. Adam Charalambides, Connor Kirst, Kieran Mullins — those were the top three rotation players for the Scarlet Knights, and all have moved on. But it’s not as dire as it looks. Rutgers’ incoming transfers generated 35.5 worth of EGA (expected goals) last season, which is the fifth-most of any Division I men’s lacrosse team that has published their 2022 roster. Big holes for sure, but they’ve brought in some players who can fill them.
11. LEHIGH
FACEOFF ELO RATING
1500 is the average Faceoff Elo rating, which captures a FOGO’s skill by factoring the strength of their opponents from their overall win percentage. It’s a career rating, and Mike Sisselberger has managed to scale to the rarified heights where only two players have higher fElo ratings — Trevor Baptiste (1802) and TD Ierlan (1792). Will he supplant either of those two this year? Stay tuned.
12. DENVER
ASSIST SHARE
The one-year experiment of pairing Jack Hannah with Jackson Morrill was, at best, a mixed success for Denver. In 2020, pre-Morrill, Hannah generated 25.6 percent of the team’s assists and had a 1.92 uaEGA rating (player efficiency). In 2021, with Morrill taking on the distributor role, Hannah had just 6.8 percent of the team’s assists and a 1.77 uaEGA. Look for Hannah to take back some of that initiator role this year.
13. ARMY
LAXELO
The Black Knights ended 2021 with their highest LaxElo rating (1702) and ranking (12th). It was largely on the strength of a defensive unit that ranked No. 3 nationally in opponent-adjusted efficiency. (Who remembers that Syracuse game?) With Brendan Nichtern continuing in the distributor role, it feels like the offense is a finisher (or two) away from being able to keep pace with the defense. That would make for a scary combo in the Patriot League.
14. SYRACUSE
ADJUSTED EMO EFFICIENCY
The story of Syracuse in 2021 was great offense, not so great defense. And when you factor in their schedule, the offensive numbers look even better. They were the ninth-best offense in terms of raw efficiency, but No. 4 when you account for the strength of the defenses they faced (even without Lehigh on that list). But the jewel in their statistical crown was the EMO unit, which was the second-best in the country at 59.3 percent (opponent-adjusted).
15. JOHNS HOPKINS
FACEOFF ELO RATING
Matt Narewski won 56.2 percent of his faceoffs last year, putting him in the 82nd percentile nationally. But because of the conference-only Big Ten schedule, the Jays played the 11th-toughest slate of opposing FOGOs. That means that Narewski’s actual faceoff rating (1638) lands him in the 90th percentile. Opponents matter.
16. DELAWARE
LAXELO
Ben DeLuca’s Blue Hens squad ended 2021 on a sour note, but despite the CAA tournament disappointment, they ended the year with their highest end-of-season program rating (LaxElo) since the stat has been tracked. The challenge they’ll need to overcome to break their own record is that Delaware returns just 74 percent of their offensive production from last year and just 54 percent of their faceoff unit production.
17. DREXEL
USAGE-ADJUSTED EGA
On an opponent-adjusted basis, the Dragons ranked No. 1 on offense in the CAA (33.1 percent adjusted efficiency). But they also lose Reid Bowering and Collin Mailman from last year’s squad. There will be a gap to fill. Enter Zach Augustine, whose 3.59 usage-adjusted EGA mark put him in the top percentile last year among the most efficient players in Division I men’s lacrosse.
18. CORNELL
SHOOTING PERCENTAGE
The last time we saw Cornell on a field in a real game was that amazing battle with Penn State in March 2020. Since then, Jeff Teat has moved on and the team missed all of 2021. If you want to highlight an heir apparent, look at John Piatelli. He shot a career-high 48.8 percent in 2020, and his efficiency marks were better for the third straight season. If he can maintain that efficiency in what will be a larger role, the post-Teat drop-off may not be too steep.
19. VERMONT
ADJUSTED FACEOFF WIN RATE
He didn’t get nearly as much attention as Mike Sisselberger last year, but Tommy Burke had a phenomenal season. You probably wouldn’t have guessed that Vermont quietly had the second-best opponent-adjusted faceoff win rate in the country. Burke ended last year as the ninth-rated FOGO according to the faceoff Elo model. The Catamounts will be looking to him to maintain that level this year.
20. BRYANT
USAGE-ADJUSTED EGA
There is something in the water up in Rhode Island. When I calculated the most efficient players in Division I men’s lacrosse, two of the top five were Bryant Bulldogs. You know the name Marc O’Rourke, but the player with the highest usage-adjusted EGA in the nation last year was his teammate, Isaiah Davis. I’ll be watching to see if he’s able to make a leap this season.