THE FAVORITE
No one
Really? You want to bank on anyone in this year’s field to win four in a row? Maryland and Yale lost in conference title games, Albany looked vulnerable late in the season (though it didn’t against Vermont), Duke fell in the ACC semifinals and Johns Hopkins lost at home (granted, in overtime against Maryland) a little more than a week ago.
Maryland could serve as the default answer; it is the No. 1 seed and has the benefit of having thrived in the postseason crucible in recent years. But these Terrapins haven’t played as crisply as their two immediate predecessors. It’s a wide-open field.
LAST TEAM IN
Villanova
The data always favored the Wildcats. They owned a solid RPI (13). They boasted a top-tier victory (Yale). Their strength of schedule, particularly outside of conference play, was strong. And they did well in average RPI in both wins and losses.
They also hadn’t played particularly well in the season’s latter stages — which, it should be noted, is not part of the selection criteria. Year after year, the numbers guide the committee’s decisions. Villanova snagging the final at-large bid was a fairly predictable result.
FIRST TEAM OUT
Bucknell, Ohio State and Rutgers
Hardt didn’t commit to a single team just on the outside of the field. When the edge of the field narrowed as Georgetown and Cornell won their respective leagues, a group of four teams for three spots became a group aiming for one.
“It was a little bit different than my previous experience in that rather than having one or two teams vying for that final at-large spot, this year we had a grouping of four programs that were closely and tightly clustered,” Hardt said.
Bucknell (victories at Loyola and Yale) and Ohio State (excellent schedule strength and a triumph at Maryland) had some noticeable strengths and Rutgers was solid across the board. That makes three years in a row the Scarlet Knights have found themselves just outside the tournament field.
TOUGHEST DRAW
Notre Dame
The ACC tournament champions finished strong and are finally healthy on offense. But despite some favorable RPI and strength of schedule numbers, the Fighting Irish were dealt the No. 7 seed and will face Denver in the postseason for the third time in four years. Get past the Pioneers for the second time this season, and Kevin Corrigan’s team could have to go through Albany to reach Foxborough.
Just about any path is going to be challenging, but Notre Dame certainly didn’t catch a break with this bracket.
UPSET ALERT
Cornell at Syracuse
That is, if you want to consider it an upset for the Big Red to follow up their Ivy League title with a victory over a team they already defeated. Absolutely no one should be astonished if Jeff Teat and the superb Cornell offense can work its magic in the Big Red’s first postseason game against the Orange since the 2009 title game.
Frankly, no one should be startled if Denver (at Notre Dame) or Virginia (at Loyola) managed to advance as road teams, either. A year without dominant teams could lend itself to a tumultuous opening weekend.
PAYBACK TIME?
Half of the first round
There are four regular-season rematches in the opening weekend. Cornell handled Syracuse 13-8 in the regular season and must now head to the Carrier Dome. Loyola opened the year with a 13-12 loss at Virginia and now welcomes the Cavaliers to Baltimore. Denver fell 11-9 at Notre Dame in March and gets a return trip to South Bend. Yale handled UMass 13-10 in the season’s early stages.
Only one of the eight games is a postseason rematch from this decade. Denver beat Notre Dame in both the 2015 semifinals (11-10) and last year’s quarterfinals (16-4).
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Trevor Baptiste, Denver: The brilliant faceoff ace has won 76.9 percent of his draws this season, second in the country behind Albany’s TD Ierlan (83.4 percent). The possession advantage the Pioneers enjoy is directly tied to the senior, and he’s put a major thumb on the scale to help a Denver offense that isn’t as prolific as some of its predecessors.
Connor Fields, Albany: The senior has 29 goals and 42 assists, but his health will be one of the postseason’s major subplots. Knee injuries hampered him in the second half of the spring, and he sat out the Great Danes’ America East title game romp against Vermont. Albany’s ceiling is higher if Fields can be more than a decoy.
(As an aside, Fields’ injury had no impact on Albany’s placement in the field. The Great Danes landed the No. 2 seed, the best in program history.
“While eligibility and availability of student-athletes is part of the selection criteria, the committee — at least this version of it — believes that without unequivocal information about a player’s status, it really isn’t a factor for consideration,” Hardt said.)
Justin Guterding, Duke: It still feels like Guterding is a bit overlooked in the national player of the year discussion, which is odd for such a dominant attackman. He leads the country in goals (56) and shares the lead in points (96) with Cornell’s Jeff Teat. The confident Guterding will be a central figure in how the tournament unfolds.
Connor Kelly, Maryland: Kelly has 40 goals and 33 assists. As a midfielder. That’s above average, and it makes the senior a worthy successor to a string of stars to wear No. 1 in College Park, most recently Matt Rambo.
Ben Reeves, Yale: Another stellar senior, Reeves broke Jon Reese’s school goals record during Sunday’s Ivy League title game. He’s one of the most decorated players in school history, but getting the Bulldogs back to the semifinals for the first time since Reese was prowling the field in 1990 would only add to an impressive legacy.
Pat Spencer, Loyola: It feels like Spencer’s been at Loyola for more than three seasons. His exceptional vision and stickwork remain major assets, and his ability to produce a monster day as either a scorer or feeder (or both) makes the sixth-seeded Greyhounds a dangerous foe.
Joel Tinney, Johns Hopkins: While Tinney is still capable of slinging in shots from the outside, he’s been an exceptional feeder for the Blue Jays as a senior. He enters the tournament with 30 assists and will be a large part of whatever run Dave Pietramala’s team can produce this month.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF …
Virginia-Loyola is a classic
Virginia will run at any opportunity. Much of Loyola’s identity is tied to creating chances in transition. And the teams have a history of playing tight games in February, with Virginia winning by a goal four times in the last five seasons — including a 13-12 double overtime decision in Charlottesville on Feb. 10.
Now, it’s time to see if that can translate to May.
“I think what it has been is an exciting game for both schools to open up the year,” Loyola coach Charley Toomey said. “There’s been fireworks in February. To have it be the last game of the night [Saturday], I think it’s going to be a great atmosphere here in Ridley. It’s two teams that want to get up and down.”
YOU’LL HEAR A LOT ABOUT …
Robert Morris and geography
In talking to coaches Sunday night about what stood out about the bracket, one team kept getting mentioned: Robert Morris, which visit Canisius in Wednesday’s opening round game. The winner visits top-seeded Maryland on Sunday.
This was despite Robert Morris owning an RPI that was more than 10 spots ahead of Richmond.
“I was surprised they have to play an extra game,” Virginia coach Lars Tiffany said.
“They have an incredibly hard job year in and year out,” said Toomey, a former committee member. “The one question I had was about Robert Morris. You look at Robert Morris versus Richmond. I think Richmond should be in the play-in game and Robert Morris deserved a better fate.”
“I’ve typically worked from the bottom up with the RPI,” Maryland coach John Tillman said. “As a creature of habit, if these are the lowest two teams, Canisius was the lowest [automatic qualifier in the RPI] and Richmond was next. Listen, there’s probably a reason for that. I kind of look at it as you’re going to have to play good teams. We’ll find out who we play Wednesday and take what they give us.”
So, what was the deal?
“There’s always geographical considerations,” Hardt said. “The NCAA wants the committee to limit flights for participating teams and that’s certainly the case in the play-in game.”
In other words, a Robert Morris-Canisius matchup would allow for a bus trip, while a Canisius-Richmond pairing would require a team to fly.
Credit Hardt, who said he was not in the room for play-in game deliberations because of his role as Richmond’s athletic director, for providing a candid answer. The problem here isn’t the committee. It’s further up the food chain at the NCAA level.
If there’s going to be a play-in game, it should feature the teams in the field with the two weakest resumes. It’s a disservice to Robert Morris that it has to play Wednesday, and a lot of people recognized it Sunday night. The Colonials might have the most valid Selection Sunday gripe since Georgetown was excluded with a top-10 RPI in 2010.
PHOTO BY KEVIN P. TUCKER
Georgetown coach Kevin Warne and Denver coach Bill Tierney share a laugh with a officials before the Big East championship game Saturday at Villanova.
PREDICTIONS
1. An unseeded team will make it to Foxborough.
The days of bluebloods dominating the landscape are long gone. An unseeded team has advanced to the semifinals in seven of the last eight years, and there’s a crop of interesting road teams (Cornell, Denver, Georgetown and Virginia) capable of creating real problems for nearly anyone in the field.
2. Maryland will reach another final four.
Death, taxes and a Tillman-coached team in the NCAA quarterfinals. The Terrapins could have to navigate a highly motivated Robert Morris bunch in the first round, but if they survive that, they head into the weekend they’ve dominated under Tillman. Maryland is 6-0 in quarterfinals under the eighth-year coach, and it should have a friendly crowd at Navy if it makes it to the second weekend.
3. One of the first two weekends of the tournament will be wild.
Either there will be chaos, a la 2014 when three of the top four seeds were bounced in the first round, or the quarterfinals will be loaded with big names. A blend of both would be a welcome development.
Ultimately, though, it feels as if this tournament could go in a number of directions, which could benefit any number of feisty teams.
“There’s 17 teams that have a vision of taking a picture with the trophy on the field in Foxborough,” said Georgetown coach Kevin Warne, who led the Hoyas to their first NCAA berth since 2007. “Only one will be happy at the end of the year. Everyone has their own way of doing things. I know the team that goes on a four-game winning streak will be the happiest during the summer recruiting season. There’s a lot of great teams and interesting matchups. Looking at the field, I don’t know if you can pick a clear favorite. Every team that has a foot on the dance floor can now jump in and start to boogie.”
GRADING THE COMMITTEE
B
By and large, the committee followed its criteria. It is how Maryland landed the No. 1 seed, how Syracuse edged out Cornell (and Denver) for the No. 8 seed and how Villanova earned the final at-large bid despite playing in fairly underwhelming fashion late in the season.
This shouldn’t be astonishing. Numbers drive the selection process. There is no “eye test” in the criteria. And conference affiliation determines nothing beyond allocating a single automatic bid for each eligible league.
Heavens knows a lot of folks don’t like the criteria, and there’s something to be said for a healthy discussion about the selection process (that exact thing happened last summer in men’s basketball). But no one who is paying attention should be surprised at Sunday night’s outcomes.
That said, the Robert Morris play-in situation is unfortunate. The blame for it shouldn’t land squarely on the committee, but it’s also an obvious flaw in this year’s bracket. Geography has played a role in past matchups, but it has never so blatantly forced a team into playing an additional game.
Those who would prefer a more subjective approach undoubtedly find this bracket somewhat disappointing. While there are some quibbles with how the data was interpreted (with Notre Dame’s seeding standing out), the committee mostly followed its guidelines. Basically, it performed its task as instructed.