Automatic Qualifiers (9)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T5W |
T10 |
T20 |
26+ L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albany | 1 | 4 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 6-0 | — |
| Maryland | 2 | 2 | 1-1 | 3-1 | 4-1 | — |
| Yale | 3 | 6 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 3-1 | — |
| Villanova | 5 | 10 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 3-1 | Brown (28) |
| Loyola | 14 | 16 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 1-3 | — |
| UMass | 17 | 22 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-3 | Army (32) |
| Bryant | 34 | 49 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-2 | Boston U. (37), Providence (40) |
| Furman | 48 | 52 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-4 | Sacred Heart (42), Canisius (51) |
| Canisius | 51 | 61 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Hobart (41), Dartmouth (50) |
Albany’s profile would be good simply with the wins over Maryland and Syracuse, but the fact four of the Great Danes’ other victories (Cornell, Harvard, UMass and Vermont) possess top-20 value makes Scott Marr’s team the clear-cut No. 1 seed at this stage. … Maryland will have plenty of chances to add to its profile with the best of the Big Ten schedule still to come. …
Yale has a plausible path to a No. 1 overall seed, though it will involve beating Albany (something it can control) and Maryland and (probably) Syracuse tripping up over the next month or so (something it doesn’t control). … Villanova has a big one on Saturday. With a win, the Wildcats get the inside track to the Big East’s regular season title and damage Denver’s at-large hopes. …
With every victory Johns Hopkins snags, Loyola’s at-large hopes get a bit better. Of course, the Greyhounds could easily wind up winning the Patriot League again this year. … It’s already clear the Colonial is one-bid territory, whether UMass or Hofstra or anyone else wins it. …
Between Bryant and Robert Morris, the Northeast Conference is in solid shape to avoid the play-in game if either of those two programs ultimately claims the league title. … Furman sits alone atop the Southern Conference standings, though Richmond (39) owns the league’s best RPI. … All seven teams in the Metro Atlantic — including co-leader Canisius — is outside the top 50 of the RPI.
At-Large Bids (20 teams/8 spots)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T5W |
T10 |
T20 |
26+ L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Syracuse | 4 | 3 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 3-3 | — |
| Penn | 6 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-4 | 2-5 | — |
| Notre Dame | 7 | 8 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | — |
| Johns Hopkins | 8 | 12 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 3-2 | — |
| Rutgers | 9 | 7 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | Army (32), Princeton (33) |
| Cornell | 10 | 9 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | — |
| Duke | 11 | 19 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 3-2 | — |
| Harvard | 12 | 21 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-1 | Holy Cross (44) |
| Denver | 13 | 33 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-2 | — |
| Vermont | 15 | 55 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — |
| Virginia | 16 | 15 | 0-1 | 0-3 | 1-3 | — |
| North Carolina | 18 | 5 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1-3 | Richmond (39) |
| Penn State | 19 | 11 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — |
| Bucknell | 20 | 28 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 | Navy (26), Richmond (39) |
| Michigan | 21 | 13 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — |
| Colgate | 23 | 39 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 1-2 | Lehigh (27), Hobart (41) |
| Robert Morris | 24 | 47 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 | Georgetown (31), Bryant (34) |
| Hofstra | 25 | 45 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-1 | Lehigh (27), St. John's (29), Ohio State (35) |
| Navy | 26 | 24 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-3 | Jacksonville (46) |
| Lehigh | 27 | 25 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-2 | Navy (26) |
For a team that’s looked thoroughly dreadful at its worst, Syracuse is sitting in excellent shape heading into April. There’s a real chance the Orange won’t have to leave the Empire State to reach Memorial Day weekend. … Penn is 5-5 and nearly in the top five of the RPI. It’s said every year, but it’s worth repeating: No one has mastered the science of scheduling better than Quakers coach Mike Murphy.…
That said, Kevin Corrigan is near the top of the list of top schedulers, too. Notre Dame has had some good moments and some shaky ones, but it is in good shape to make another postseason trip as April dawns. … The only teams with more top-10 wins than Johns Hopkins are Albany and Maryland. The Blue Jays continue to roll after edging Rutgers on Sunday. …
Losses to Army and Princeton didn’t seem especially harmful at the time. Now, Rutgers is rooting for both of those teams to turn around their respective seasons. … The numbers make it perfectly clear that Cornell is in solid shape to make a return to the postseason. Still, the Big Red could use another impressive victory — such as, say, next week at home against Syracuse. …
Duke has some solid secondary victories (Denver, Loyola and North Carolina) that would look better in another year. The Blue Devils have work to do to avoid getting shipped on the road for the first weekend for the second year in a row. … Denver has even more work to do. The victories over North Carolina, Ohio State and Towson just aren’t going to carry as much weight as recent years. …
Virginia and Penn State are not far from the at-large conversation, even if both have had relatively quiet seasons to date. … North Carolina still has three games against ACC teams and possibly the conference tournament to improve a resume that only has one ugly spot on it. … Harvard owns a gaudy record, but it requires a solid April to improve its postseason standing.
The chart goes far deeper than the edge of the field, mainly to illustrate the challenges of some teams on the fringe of tournament consideration. Strength of schedule is a hazard for a number of those programs.
PROJECTED BRACKET
A few reminders on piecing together the bracket. …
* The committee seeds the top eight teams and then assigns the unseeded teams based on geography in an attempt to limit air travel while trying to maintain bracket integrity.
* Conference matchups are to be avoided in the first round.
* If applicable, quarterfinal host schools are funneled into their own site. Hofstra and Navy are this year’s quarterfinal hosts.
* Of the nine automatic qualifiers, the two with the weakest resumes are assigned to the preliminary round game the Wednesday before the first round. At-large teams are not selected for play-in games.
Hempstead, N.Y.
(1) AMERICA EAST/Albany vs. SOUTHERN/Furman-METRO ATLANTIC/Canisius
(8) Cornell vs. Duke
Annapolis, Md.
(5) Johns Hopkins vs. Penn
(4) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Loyola
Hempstead, N.Y.
(3) IVY/Yale vs. COLONIAL/Massachusetts
(6) BIG EAST/Villanova vs. Rutgers
Annapolis, Md.
(7) Notre Dame vs. Denver
(2) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. NORTHEAST/Bryant
Last four in: Duke, Penn, Rutgers, Denver
First four out: Virginia, Penn State, North Carolina, Harvard
Multi-bid conferences: Atlantic Coast (3), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3), Big East (2)