Automatic Qualifiers (9)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T5W |
T10 |
T20 |
26+ L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland | 3 | 3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 5-3 | — |
| Albany | 7 | 19 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | — |
| Denver | 8 | 12 | 1-1 | 2-1 | 4-2 | — |
| Hofstra | 10 | 36 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | Drexel (26) |
| Yale | 17 | 22 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 2-2 | UMass (27), Bryant (35) |
| Loyola | 20 | 28 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-4 | Bucknell (52) |
| Hobart | 36 | 54 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-2 | Georgetown (41), Sacred Heart (44), Colgate (50) |
| Monmouth | 39 | 66 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1-1 | Delaware (37), St. Joseph's (53) |
| Furman | 43 | 49 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0-3 | Sacred Heart (44), Vermont (48) |
Based on the RPI, Maryland gets the nod as the Big Ten’s automatic qualifier. But if Ohio State beats Rutgers on Saturday, it will get the top seed and move into this chart next week. … Albany has a top-20 victory thanks to its one-goal defeat of Yale. It might not be enough, though, for the Great Danes to land a home game in the first round of the NCAA tournament. …
Denver’s remaining schedule: At Marquette, another matchup with Marquette in the Big East tournament and then a potential Big East final against Villanova or Providence. … Hofstra is part of a three-way tie atop the Colonial, but it needs help to host the league tournament. The Pride lands the top seed with a victory plus a Drexel loss. …
Yale’s chances of landing an at-large bid probably vanished with its loss at Albany. Its task is to win two at home on the final weekend of the season. … Loyola leaps into the top 20 after winning at Army, but it needs two more victories this week in the Patriot League tournament to prolong its season. …
Monmouth will host the Metro Atlantic tournament after turning back Canisius on Friday. … The winner of Hobart’s date with Robert Morris on Saturday will land the top seed in the Northeast tournament. … The longest winning streaks in Division I belong to Syracuse (nine), Monmouth (eight) and Furman (six). The Paladins will try to clinch a perfect regular season in the Southern Conference when they visit Richmond on Saturday.
At-Large Bids (13 teams/8 slots)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T5W |
T10 |
T20 |
26+ L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Syracuse | 1 | 5 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 6-1 | — |
| Notre Dame | 2 | 4 | 2-1 | 2-3 | 4-3 | — |
| Johns Hopkins | 4 | 2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 5-4 | — |
| Ohio State | 5 | 10 | 2-1 | 3-2 | 4-2 | — |
| Penn State | 6 | 13 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3-2 | — |
| Duke | 9 | 11 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 4-2 | Air Force (31) |
| Rutgers | 12 | 14 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 2-3 | Delaware (37) |
| Towson | 13 | 26 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1-3 | Fairfield (45) |
| Villanova | 14 | 21 | 1-0 | 1-2 | 1-3 | Delaware (37), Monmouth (39) |
| Boston U. | 15 | 57 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-1 | Lehigh (46), Bucknell (52) |
| Princeton | 16 | 25 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 1-3 | Lehigh (46) |
| Virginia | 18 | 8 | 0-3 | 0-4 | 1-5 | Penn (30) |
| Army | 19 | 41 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 2-2 | Navy (40) |
Syracuse effectively locks up the No. 1 seed with an ACC tournament title this week. Even with a loss, the Orange’s floor is probably no lower than a No. 3 seed so long as it beats Colgate in its regular-season finale. … As much as Syracuse’s penchant for one-goal games gets pointed out, it’s also Notre Dame’s trend. The Fighting Irish is 4-2 in one-goal games, with six of its last eight decided by a goal. …
Johns Hopkins handled matters against Michigan, and now it heads to Maryland. The winner is assured at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title and the top seed if Ohio State loses Saturday to Rutgers. … Speaking of the Buckeyes, they probably need one more victory (either against Rutgers or in the Big Ten semifinals) to lock in a first-round home game in the NCAA tournament. …
Penn State should feel good about its NCAA hopes after thrashing Rutgers on Sunday. The Nittany Lions would need to lose out and have chaos erupt elsewhere to find themselves out of the field at this point. … It’s a big weekend for Duke, which will face Notre Dame and potentially Syracuse on its home field as it chases an ACC title. One win probably seals an NCAA home game for the Blue Devils.
Right now, it’s four teams — Princeton, Rutgers, Towson and Villanova — for two spots. None of them have overwhelming profiles and each has a regrettable loss. Rutgers’ head-to-head victory over Princeton could be a valuable data point during the committee’s deliberations next month. … Within that group, flip a coin on Towson and Princeton. Their profiles are effectively indistinguishable.
Boston University and Army both have dates with ACC schools in two weekends (the Terriers with Duke, the Black Knights with Notre Dame). Nonetheless, the only sure postseason path for either team is a Patriot League tournament title. … Virginia won’t make the tournament even if it avenges its earlier loss to Penn this weekend, but it would have a viable case had even one of its one-goal losses to Syracuse, Notre Dame and Johns Hopkins swung the other way.
PROJECTED BRACKET
A few reminders on bracket construction:
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The committee seeds the top eight teams and then divvies up the unseeded teams based on geography in an attempt to limit air travel.
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Conference rematches are to be avoided in the first round.
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Quarterfinal host schools (in this year’s case, Hofstra) are funneled into their own site.
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Of the nine automatic qualifiers, the two with the weakest profiles are assigned to the preliminary round game the Wednesday before the first round. At-large teams are not selected for play-in games.
Hempstead, N.Y.
(1) Syracuse vs. NORTHEAST/Hobart-SOUTHERN/Furman
(8) Penn State vs. CAA/Hofstra
Hempstead, N.Y.
(5) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. PATRIOT/Loyola
(4) BIG EAST/Denver vs. Rutgers
Newark, Del.
(3) BIG EAST/Denver vs. IVY/Yale
(6) Johns Hopkins vs. America East/Albany
Newark, Del.
(7) Duke vs. Towson
(2) Notre Dame vs. MAAC/Monmouth
Last three in: Penn State, Rutgers, Towson
First three out: Princeton, Villanova, Army
Multi-bid conferences: Big Ten (5), ACC (3), CAA (2)