With 30 games to go before Selection Sunday — all in 10 conference tournaments — there’s still plenty to sort out before the NCAA tournament begins next week.
One thing, though, seems like it is pretty much settled: Penn State is going to be the No. 1 seed.
They are the only team in the country with one loss. They own three top-10 victories, more than any team but Duke. Even if they trip up in the Big Ten tournament (against Rutgers in the semifinals, then either Johns Hopkins or Maryland in a potential title game), they won’t have a big loss.
They’re also No. 1 in the RPI, and by a healthy margin. The gap between Penn State’s RPI figure (.69074) and No. 2 Duke’s (.63886) is larger than the gap between the Blue Devils and No. 14 Denver (.59204). And, it should be noted, Duke doesn’t have a chance to directly impact its resume this week.
In short, Penn State is playing for its first Big Ten tournament title, and it is playing to maintain its own competitive excellence. It would be a surprise, though, if the Nittany Lions have to do any more to lock up the top seed in the NCAA tournament.
A look at how things stand entering the conference tournaments, with data courtesy of the NCAA. One note: Projected conference winners previously set by RPI are now determined by league tournament seeding.
Automatic Qualifiers (9)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T5W |
T10 |
T20 |
26+ L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | 1 | 9 | 3-1 | 6-1 | 7-1 | — |
| Penn | 5 | 15 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 5-3 | — |
| Loyola | 6 | 13 | 1-2 | 4-2 | 6-3 | — |
| Denver | 14 | 17 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 4-4 | — |
| UMass | 18 | 32 | 1-1 | 1-3 | 4-3 | Hofstra (43) |
| High Point | 20 | 48 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 5-0 | Jacksonville (45), St. John's (55) |
| Marist | 32 | 50 | 0-1 | 0-3 | 0-4 | Bucknell (34), Detroit (48) |
| Mount St. Mary's | 36 | 41 | 0-1 | 0-3 | 1-5 | Hobart (27), Delaware (29), UMBC (58) |
| Stony Brook | 38 | 54 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | Marist (32), Sacred Heart (40), Hartford (65) |
Penn State is poised to become the 11th school to be a No. 1 seed in NCAA tournament history. The last first-time No. 1 seed was Notre Dame in 2015. … Penn will probably land a home game regardless of this weekend’s Ivy tournament, but it wouldn’t hurt to beat Brown just to be on the safe side. …
Loyola is in a similar situation, though unlike Penn, the Greyhounds could possibly absorb a damaging loss in either round of the Patriot tournament. It would be best for Loyola — and the edge of the field — if it just handles its business at home this weekend. … Denver could make an at-large case for itself right now. But if it is in the at-large pool come Sunday, that means it takes another loss, which means its profile would take a hit. Better to hold serve at home in the Big East tournament than take any chances. …
A regular season victory at Towson coupled with a CAA tournament loss won’t get the job done for UMass. Fortunately for the Minutemen, they have home field in the league tourney. … If High Point wins the SoCon tournament, there’s a pretty good chance it gets paired with one of the ACC schools it already defeated: Duke or Virginia. …
Marist won the Metro Atlantic’s outright regular season title. The league tournament is on its home field. The Red Foxes are seeking their third NCAA appearance (2005 and 2015 were the others) … Mount St. Mary’s might escape play-in territory with a conference title coupled with a surprise winner in the Metro Atlantic or Southern. The prize for doing so is probably a trip to Durham or Charlottesville. … Stony Brook earned the top seed and home field in the America East by outlasting a weather delay and Albany on Friday.
At-Large Bids (16 teams/8 slots)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T5W |
T10 |
T20 |
26+ L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 2 | 1 | 5-2 | 6-4 | 7-4 | — |
| Virginia | 3 | 6 | 2-2 | 5-3 | 8-3 | — |
| Yale | 4 | 19 | 1-1 | 3-2 | 6-2 | — |
| Maryland | 7 | 7 | 1-2 | 4-3 | 7-3 | — |
| Notre Dame | 8 | 3 | 3-2 | 5-4 | 5-5 | — |
| Towson | 9 | 16 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 5-4 | — |
| Syracuse | 10 | 5 | 1-2 | 5-3 | 8-3 | Colgate (49) |
| Johns Hopkins | 11 | 4 | 1-5 | 2-6 | 5-6 | — |
| Cornell | 12 | 8 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 5-4 | — |
| Ohio State | 13 | 20 | 1-2 | 3-2 | 4-3 | Michigan (33) |
| Villanova | 15 | 14 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 4-5 | Drexel (30), Providence (46) |
| North Carolina | 16 | 2 | 2-5 | 2-7 | 2-7 | — |
| Georgetown | 17 | 33 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 2-4 | Marquette (39) |
| Army | 19 | 30 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3-3 | Lehigh (37) |
| Air Force | 21 | 49 | 0-1 | 0-3 | 1-3 | Utah (54) |
| Rutgers | 22 | 16 | 0-4 | 1-6 | 2-6 | Lehigh (37) |
Even with an ACC semifinal loss, Duke shouldn’t tumble any further than a No. 3 seed. The five top-10 victories at the moment (Loyola, Notre Dame, Penn, Towson and Virginia) are the most on the board. … Virginia is pretty safely locked into a home game entering the ACC final against Notre Dame. The Cavaliers are playing for seeding at this point. …
Yale’s profile is rock-solid. The Bulldogs, the only team in the country without a loss in regulation, might just end up where they were last year going into the postseason: As a No. 3 seed. … Maryland would have felt pretty comfortable about landing a home game had it taken care of Johns Hopkins on Saturday. The Terrapins might need to win Round Two against the Blue Jays to earn a tournament seed for the seventh year in a row. …
Notre Dame’s postseason streak is going to reach 14 years after its defeat of Duke in the ACC semifinals. The only question now is placement in the field. … Towson would still be best-served to win the CAA tournament, but the current numbers would probably place the Tigers into the field for now. …
Syracuse might have cost itself its traditional 7:30 p.m. Sunday home game on the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament with its loss to North Carolina. … Johns Hopkins looks a whole lot better now than it did before last weekend. It doesn’t need a Big Ten tournament title to get in, but it might need a second victory over Maryland to do so. …
Cornell’s been here before: Needing a victory over Yale in the Ivy League tournament to feel comfortable about its Selection Sunday fate. …Ohio State would have needed a lot of things to go wrong to miss the postseason had it beat Michigan. Instead, the Buckeyes lost, and they’ll be rooting against Cornell and Johns Hopkins and for Loyola this week to maintain any hopes. …
The overtime loss to Providence is an anchor for Villanova. The Wildcats probably require an automatic bid from the Big East to return to the tournament. … North Carolina made an admirable push, but 8-7 with only two top-30 victories means the Tar Heels will miss the tournament for the second year in a row. ..
Georgetown, Army, Air Force and Rutgers all need to win their respective conference tournaments to make the field.
PROJECTED BRACKET
A few reminders on piecing together the bracket:
-
The committee seeds the top eight teams and then assigns the unseeded teams based on geography in an attempt to limit air travel while trying to maintain bracket integrity.
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Conference matchups are to be avoided in the first round.
-
If applicable, quarterfinal host schools are funneled into their own site. Hofstra and Fairfield are this year’s quarterfinal hosts.
-
Of the nine automatic qualifiers, the two with the weakest resumes are assigned to the preliminary round game the Wednesday before the first round. At-large teams are not selected for play-in games.
If the @NCAALAX tournament started today, per @D1scourse.
— US Lacrosse Magazine (@USLacrosseMag) May 1, 2019
BRACKETOLOGY: https://t.co/P3eqjm6qPS pic.twitter.com/tFS42ErCaz
Hempstead, N.Y.
(1) BIG TEN/Penn State vs. NORTHEAST/Mount St. Mary’s-AMERICA EAST/Stony Brook
(8) Maryland vs. Syracuse
East Hartford, Conn.
(5) Yale vs. Towson
(4) IVY/Penn vs. COLONIAL/Massachusetts
Hempstead, N.Y.
(3) Virginia vs. SOUTHERN/High Point
(6) PATRIOT/Loyola vs. Cornell
East Hartford, Conn.
(7) Notre Dame vs. BIG EAST/Denver
(2) Duke vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Marist
Last three in: Syracuse, Cornell, Towson
First three out: Johns Hopkins, Ohio State, North Carolina
Moving in: Denver, High Point, Massachusetts, Mount St. Mary’s, Stony Brook
Moving out: Air Force, Albany, Hobart, Ohio State, Villanova
Multi-bid conferences: Atlantic Coast (4), Ivy (3), Big Ten (2), Colonial (2)