Death, taxes and squabbling over the final few teams — the certainty of life.

It’s Selection Sunday, and this year’s 29-team field will elicit many feelings. There are major discussions about the bottom three seeds and for the final at-large berths in the field. What will the committee do?

As we’ve mentioned before, the quality of winning is very important. Most people, even this bracketologist, were surprised to see Florida garner a No. 6 seed in a committee projection just two weeks ago ahead of two teams that it lost to, Stony Brook and Loyola.

Since then, all three teams have been undefeated and Florida’s RPI has jumped to No. 5, while Stony Brook’s has slipped to No. 8 and Loyola crept to No. 10. Head-to-head is just one of five primary criteria to rank teams. In this case, Florida’s superior RPI, strength of schedule and record against common opponents are already data points to keep the Gators ahead. Despite the head-to-head results, its win over Syracuse has carried weight with the committee before, and it’s safe to assume it will continue to do so.

Enter Rutgers, which just dismantled Northwestern in the Big Ten semifinals on Friday night. The Scarlet Knights have the No. 7 RPI and now have a marquee win that’s even better than Florida’s. It’s right to place them as the national No. 6 seed, thus Stony Brook or Loyola will be left out.

SBU has been getting the nod thanks to a superior RPI (No. 8 vs. No. 10), strength of schedule (No. 22 vs. No. 27) and additional wins over teams likely to be in the NCAA field (Arizona State, and now newly minted America East champion, Vermont).  

Down the ladder, our final four teams in the field include Arizona State, Michigan, UConn and Johns Hopkins. Each have their pros and cons.

The first six we have left out (in order) are UMass, Vanderbilt, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Navy and Temple. The main reasons for this order are similar themes to how we seeded the top eight teams: better RPI, SOS and better wins, as well as record against common opponents and head-to-head results.

In this range, managing significant losses becomes a factor, which is why Vanderbilt, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Temple and even Colorado, which has a massive win over Denver, will suffer — all carry losses to teams out of the field and with RPIs above 40.

Arizona State (RPI No. 27) will be the team with the lowest RPI in our final projection. ASU beat tourney teams Rutgers, USC and Stanford. Michigan’s early season win over Notre Dame is valuable, as are victories over ASU and Johns Hopkins.

No one will argue that UConn’s blowout losses are something to be concerned about. The results are bad, but the bubble is weak without many bid thieves. Ultimately, it’s a season of work, not just recent results.

UConn and UMass have just one opponent in common, both victories over UMass Lowell. UConn has a better RPI (No. 14 vs. No. 20) and won the head-to-head matchup, while UMass has a slightly better SOS (No. 44 vs. No. 47). Fairfield’s win today also put a tournament team on UConn’s ledger.

Johns Hopkins is an even trickier case. JHU and UMass didn’t play a single common opponent and didn’t play each other, but Hopkins has a better RPI (No. 15 vs. No. 19) and SOS (No. 9 vs. No. 45). The Blue Jays’ best wins are over Ohio State and Penn State, both top 30 teams, and Drexel’s win today put a tourney team on their resume as well.

UMass has Saint Joseph’s and Vermont as tourney winners on its schedule, but neither of those teams are close to being in the field as at-large teams. With that said, it shouldn’t surprise if UMass gets in over Hopkins. None of its three losses were to non-tournament teams.

Vanderbilt’s early season win over Notre Dame will get the Commodores close, but losses to Colorado and Louisville dragged down their RPI and will count as significant losses. Ohio State misses out despite a win over Michigan, but a loss to Colorado wipes out that positivity, as does a head-to-head loss to Hopkins.

And the final puzzle — bracketing and travel. Some of the non-seeding teams didn’t stray too far from what would be expected, except for the case of the midwestern pod of Northwestern, Central Michigan, Notre Dame and Michigan.

Nevertheless, there will be a decent number of flights. Three Pac-12 teams are in our projected field along with Denver, so at least four teams will need to fly.

A major issue of bracket integrity popped up because Duke had limited options to travel. We have the Blue Devils ranked No. 10. The committee usually goes out of its way to protect the top two or three seeds, thus shipping them to North Carolina or Maryland seems unlikely, even if it saves money. Duke can’t drive to the other pods, so we kept their line intact and have them flying to No. 7 seed Florida to face Jacksonville.

NOTES

• Records against the top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (41st or higher) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of Monday, April 25), not human polls.

• Results from Monday and Tuesday games are not included.

• First-place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers.

• In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI.

• For the 2022 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (15)

North Carolina ACC

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
1	4	4-0	1-0	5-0	—

Maryland Big Ten

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
2	7	2-0	2-0	5-1	—

Florida AAC

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
5	14	0-2	1-2	0-0	—

Denver Big East

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
9	28	0-1	0-0	3-0	Colorado (42)

Loyola Patriot League

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
10	27	1-0	0-1	2-0	—

Princeton Ivy League

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
11	20	0-1	0-2	2-0	—

Jacksonville ASUN

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
21	52	0-2	0-0	0-2	—

Stanford Pac-12

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
26	23	0-0	0-2	2-1	Colorado (42)

Saint Joseph's A-10

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
29	33	0-1	0-0	1-1	—

Fairfield MAAC

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
32	73	0-0	0-1	0-1	3 losses of 41+

Vermont America East

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
33	83	0-0	0-1	0-1	Binghamton (65)

Mercer Big South

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
34	84	0-2	0-0	0-1	High Point (47)

Drexel CAA

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
37	35	0-1	0-1	0-2	Penn (46)

Mount St. Mary's NEC

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
45	92	0-0	0-0	0-0	Bryant (64), La Salle (94)

Central Michigan MAC

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
74	101	0-0	0-0	0-2	5 losses of 41+

North Carolina will be the heavy favorite to lift the trophy at Homewood Field … Maryland is slated to move up to No. 2 in our projection after winning the Big Ten … Florida won the American once again in blowout fashion over Vanderbilt.

Denver needed a major comeback to avoid the upset to Georgetown and certainly saved one of the bubble teams’ seasons … Loyola handled its rival Navy well in the Patriot League final. The Greyhounds will probably be traveling to the No. 8 seed or be the No. 8 seed … Princeton prevented another bid thief by finishing off a perfect Ivy League season.

Jacksonville heads back to the tournament and likely to Gainesville for the first round … Stanford didn’t leave it up to the committee by completing the Pac-12 title chase. … Saint Joseph’s is projected to play James Madison at Rutgers, the current home of former Hawk attacker Stephanie Kelly.

Fairfield made sure that the MAAC champion will defend its title next year by defeating departing Monmouth … Welcome to the field, Vermont! The Catamounts came from behind to beat Albany in the America East final … Drexel took home the CAA title at home in overtime over Towson.

New conference, same result for Mercer, which won the Big South title by avenging a regular-season loss against High Point … Mount St. Mary’s squeaked past Bryant in a battle of two teams departing the NEC … Central Michigan romped past Robert Morris 20-10 to clinch the Chippewas first NCAA appearance.

AT-LARGE (23 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Boston College ACC

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
3	6	1-2	2-0	4-1	—

Northwestern Big Ten

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
4	2	0-3	3-1	3-0	—

Syracuse ACC

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
6	3	0-4	2-0	3-1	—

Rutgers Big Ten

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
7	8	1-3	0-0	3-0	—

Stony Brook America East

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
8	22	1-1	0-1	2-0	—

James Madison CAA

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
12	19	1-1	0-1	2-0	—

Duke ACC

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
13	25	1-1	0-1	2-1	—

UConn Big East

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
14	46	0-0	0-2	1-1	—

Johns Hopkins Big Ten

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
15	9	0-3	0-3	0-1	—

USC Pac-12

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
17	47	0-0	0-0	1-1	—

Notre Dame ACC

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
17	5	0-4	0-1	2-2	—

Virginia ACC

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
18	1	0-4	1-1	0-4	—

UMass A-10

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
19	45	0-1	0-0	0-1	—

Michigan Big Ten

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
20	12	0-2	0-2	2-1	—

Temple AAC

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
22	34	0-1	0-2	0-1	Delaware (68)

Ohio State Big Ten

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
23	17	0-2	0-2	1-2	Colorado (42)

Yale Ivy League

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
25	39	0-1	0-1	0-4	—

Arizona State Pac-12

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
27	12	0-2	1-1	1-3	—

Vanderbilt AAC

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
28	25	0-2	0-1	1-1	Colorado (42), Louisville (43)

Navy Patriot League

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
30	50	0-0	0-2	1-0	—

Richmond A-10

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
31	59	0-0	0-0	0-3	—

Virginia Tech ACC

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
38	11	0-3	0-1	2-2	Louisville (43), Liberty (44)

Colorado Pac-12

RPI	SOS	1-5	6-10	11-20	41+L
42	31	0-0	1-0	0-2	Oregon (86)

Boston College was no match for North Carolina’s third-quarter push. The Eagles drop to No. 3 in our projection, but that’s more a statement by Maryland than BC … Northwestern is the No. 4 seed despite losses in its past two games by six-plus goals … Syracuse is our No. 5 seed, but like Northwestern, it ended the regular season with two losses.

Rutgers improved its stock the most among the at-larges and seems to be inlined to receive a national seed after a complete win over Northwestern … Stony Brook appears to be in either the No. 7 or 8 slot. Supporters won’t like to hear this, but the Seawolves are hanging on to the final national seed despite a quality win over Florida … James Madison has been idle since April 30 having won 10 straight games entering the NCAA tournament.

Duke is steady at No. 13 in the RPI, likely not enough for a seed … UConn is probably happiest that Denver won the Big East, as a Georgetown win would have likely knocked the Huskies out … Johns Hopkins, like UConn, is on a razor’s edge. It’s possible the Blue Jays are left out, but we gave our case for their inclusion above.

USC is among the final five teams into this year’s field, but an RPI of 17 and wins over several NCAA teams should have them comfortably in … Notre Dame saved its season last weekend and didn’t have to worry about many upsets putting them on the bubble … Virginia (9-9) has a win over a seeded team in Syracuse and the toughest strength of schedule in the nation. It would be a shock if the Cavs are left out.

A mostly upset-free weekend helped Michigan as one of the final three teams into the field, but wins over Notre Dame and Arizona State help … UMass just didn’t do enough. A regular-season loss to UConn coupled with an Atlantic 10 final loss to Saint Joseph’s has the Minutewomen on the outside. If the committee views regular-season wins over St. Joe’s and Vermont positively, maybe they sneak in … Temple didn’t do enough in the opportunities it had. The best wins came against Vanderbilt and Saint Joseph’s, but it lost to Princeton, Rutgers, Syracuse, Florida, Vanderbilt and Delaware.

Ohio State has a win over Michigan, but little else. Going 2-7 against the RPI Top 40 likely isn’t enough despite ranking 23rd in the RPI … Yale was unable to pull the upset of Princeton in the Ivy final … Vanderbilt is on the wrong side of the bubble due to losses to UMass, Colorado and Louisville, which wipe out the good from a win over Notre Dame and a split with Temple.

Navy couldn’t upset its rival and will likely be left home when selections are made tonight …. Richmond keeps slipping after its A-10 semifinal loss to St. Joe’s … Virginia Tech and its Jekyll & Hyde resume — wins over James Madison and Notre Dame, but losses to Louisville and Liberty — make things difficult. But an RPI of 38 is the final nail … Colorado, like Virginia Tech, has some highlights (wins over Denver, Stanford, Ohio State, Vanderbilt) and a major lowlight (Oregon) and an RPI of 42.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed with geographical considerations (e.g., teams will drive vs. fly), while keeping bracket integrity when possible.

• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.

• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.

Chapel Hill, N.C.

USC vs. Johns Hopkins
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina (ACC)

Stony Brook, N.Y.

Fairfield (MAAC) at (8) Stony Brook
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Drexel (CAA)

Evanston, Ill.

Central Michigan (MAC) at (4) Northwestern
Notre Dame vs. Michigan

Syracuse, N.Y.

Mount St. Mary’s (NEC) at (5) Syracuse
Denver (BIG EAST) vs. Arizona State

College Park, Md.

Virginia vs. Stanford (PAC-12)
Winner plays at (2) Maryland (BIG TEN)

Gainesville, Fla.

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (7) Florida (AMERICAN)
Duke vs. Jacksonville (ASUN)

Newton, Mass.

Princeton (IVY) vs. UConn
Winner plays at (3) Boston College

Piscataway, N.J.

Vermont (AMERICA EAST) at (6) Rutgers
James Madison vs. Saint Joseph’s (ATLANTIC 10)

Last Four In: Arizona State, Michigan, UConn, Johns Hopkins
First Four Out: UMass, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Navy, Colorado, Temple, Richmond

Moving In: Vermont, Drexel
Moving Out: Albany, Towson

Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (6), Big Ten (5), Pac-12 (3), America East (2), Big East (2), CAA (2)