With the NCAA selection committee releasing its top 10 last week, little speculation is needed on where the teams will fall come this Sunday. Looking ahead, it’s down on the bubble where the tough decisions will be made. Nevertheless, the picture will be made clearer by Friday night.
That’s because six teams — Duke, Johns Hopkins, Massachusetts, Penn, Penn State and Stanford — are vying for the final four at-large spots. Two of them — Penn and Penn State — play key conference semifinals Friday.
The Quakers should feel good about their chances come Sunday regardless of Friday’s result against Dartmouth, but the greatest chance for a shakeup is a Penn State win. If the Nittany Lions are able to shock top-ranked Maryland, they’re a lock for the NCAA tournament and likely knock out one of the idle teams.
With that said, a Penn State loss would make the Nittany Lions ineligible and allow Stanford, Johns Hopkins and Duke to breathe easier. They all have better profiles than Massachusetts, who would be the first projected team out of the tournament in that scenario.
As it stands, we have put the bubble teams in this order going into championship week: Penn, Stanford, Johns Hopkins and Duke. Penn State and UMass are the first teams out, followed by Hofstra, Georgetown and Villanova.
Hofstra (CAA), Georgetown and Villanova (Big East) all need to win their respective conference tournaments to enter the field. Other conferences that have bid thieves include the American Athletic (Florida will be in no matter what), Patriot League (Loyola, Navy are in) and the America East (Stony Brook is a lock).
Following Thursday and Friday’s games, we’ll have a clear picture for those teams on the bubble when we publish our next projection on Sunday morning.
Notes:
-
Records against the top 10, top 11-20, top 21-30 and losses to teams outside the top 30 are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of Monday, April 29), not human polls.
-
Results from Monday and Tuesday’s games are not included.
-
First-place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers.
-
In the events of a tie, the projected AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI.
-
With another conference added, there are now 15 automatic qualifiers, which will necessitate two play-in games for the 26-team field.
Automatic Qualifiers (15)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T10 |
T11-20 |
T21-30 |
31+ L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland | 1 | 6 | 7-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | — |
| North Carolina* | 3 | 4 | 5-2 | 2-1 | 5-0 | — |
| Princeton | 7 | 16 | 1-2 | 5-0 | 0-0 | Brown (48) |
| USC* | 9 | 26 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 6-1 | — |
| Florida | 10 | 11 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 2-0 | — |
| Denver | 12 | 37 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 3-1 | — |
| Loyola | 13 | 13 | 1-3 | 2-1 | 2-0 | — |
| James Madison | 16 | 30 | 0-3 | 1-0 | 3-0 | — |
| Stony Brook | 20 | 20 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 1-1 | — |
| Richmond* | 23 | 54 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | George Mason (46) |
| High Point* | 25 | 43 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 0-1 | — |
| Jacksonville | 32 | 79 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-0 | Oregon (84) |
| Fairfield | 35 | 89 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Boston U (38) |
| Mount St. Mary's | 36 | 97 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | California (49) |
| Furman | 72 | 96 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 5 Losses of 31+ |
* clinched AQ
Maryland’s status as the top seed was confirmed by the selection committee last week. As long as the Terps hold serve in the Big Ten tournament, they’ll be No. 1 again … North Carolina ruined BC’s perfect season in the ACC tournament final for the second straight year. The Tar Heels are peaking at the right time … Princeton is the No. 1 seed in the Ivy tournament, which is being hosted by Columbia this weekend.
USC rolled through the Pac-12 tournament to win its first title. Despite a high RPI, the Trojans are unlikely to host … Florida earned the American Athletic Conference regular season title with a dominating 19-goal win over second-place Cincinnati … Denver is the top seed for the Big East tournament as it will take on Villanova Thursday evening in Milwaukee.
Loyola once again hosts the Patriot League tournament as the top seed. For the first time in three years, the ‘Hounds will look to capture the tournament title, which could push them into a top 8 seed … James Madison hosts the CAA tournament as the favorite beginning Friday.
Richmond again shocked UMass in the Atlantic 10 final to earn the auto bid. The Spiders were down as many as six goals in the second half and faced a four-goal deficit with less than seven minutes remaining … High Point repeated as the Big South champion. The Panthers will be seeking their second NCAA tournament win … Jacksonville hosts the Atlantic Sun tournament with Liberty its biggest challenger.
Fairfield hosts the MAAC tournament as the undefeated No. 1 seed. The Stags claimed one-goal victory over semifinal opponent Marist in April, as well as one-goal wins over potential finalists Monmouth and Siena … Mount St. Mary’s is the lone unbeaten team in the NEC, completing the undefeated schedule for the first time since 2007 … Furman hosts Detroit Mercy in the SoCon semifinals on Thursday.
At-Large Bids (19 teams/13 spots)
|
|
RPI |
SOS |
T10 |
T11-20 |
T21-30 |
31+L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | 2 | 2 | 6-1 | 3-0 | 4-0 | — |
| Syracuse | 4 | 1 | 4-4 | 3-0 | 2-0 | — |
| Virginia | 5 | 3 | 1-5 | 4-1 | 3-0 | — |
| Northwestern | 6 | 8 | 1-4 | 5-0 | 1-0 | — |
| Michigan | 8 | 23 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 1-0 | — |
| Navy | 11 | 29 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-0 | — |
| Dartmouth | 14 | 24 | 0-4 | 1-0 | 2-0 | — |
| Notre Dame | 15 | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-1 | — |
| Penn | 17 | 10 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 2-0 | — |
| Johns Hopkins | 18 | 13 | 0-3 | 1-3 | 2-1 | — |
| Penn State | 19 | 10 | 0-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | — |
| Colorado | 21 | 12 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 3-1 | — |
| Massachusetts | 22 | 47 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-1 | Harvard (42) |
| Stanford | 24 | 33 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | — |
| Duke | 26 | 7 | 0-6 | 1-2 | 1-0 | — |
| Hofstra | 27 | 31 | 0-2 | 0-3 | 1-0 | Towson (34) |
| Army | 28 | 66 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Villanova (33), American (81) |
| Georgetown | 29 | 18 | 0-2 | 0-5 | 0-0 | Marquette (55) |
| Liberty | 31 | 74 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-2 | Jacksonville (32) |
| Villanova | 33 | 36 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1-3 | Saint Joseph's (44) |
Boston College will look to rebound from its ACC tournament championship loss. The Eagles have now dropped four straight title games (two ACC, two national) … Syracuse has four top 10 wins and seven top 20 wins against the RPI … Virginia will rely on five top 20 wins to earn a top 8 seed.
Northwestern and Michigan face off in Friday’s Big Ten semifinal in Baltimore. The winner will be assured of hosting NCAA games, while the other will be on the borderline … Navy is on the periphery of hosting, which will only be accomplished if the Mids win their third straight Patriot League tournament title over Loyola.
Dartmouth should be back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2013. First up, the Ivy League tournament semifinals against Penn … Notre Dame’s upset in the ACC quarterfinals dashed the Irish’s hopes of hosting.
Johns Hopkins is hosting the Big Ten tournament, but not participating after falling to Penn State two weeks ago … Colorado fell in the Pac-12 tournament final to USC this past weekend. The Buffs have three wins against the RPI top 30.
UMass’s heartbreaking loss to Richmond will keep it from the NCAA tournament … Stanford is squarely on the bubble and the committee could take someone else with a stronger RPI or SOS despite the Cardinal’s wins over NCAA teams Stony Brook and Colorado … Duke is in a similar position to Stanford, relying heavily on its win over Notre Dame.
Hofstra needs to get by Towson to reach the CAA final … Army will try to pull the upset against Navy in the Patriot League semifinals … Georgetown plays host Marquette in the Big East semifinals after falling to the Golden Eagles last week … Liberty is Jacksonville’s top threat in the Atlantic Sun … Villanova could steal a bid by beating Denver in the Big East semifinals.
PROJECTED BRACKET
Bracketing procedures:
-
The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
-
Conference matchups are to be avoided in the first round.
-
This year there are 15 automatic qualifiers, which means the four weakest resumes are assigned to play-in games on Tuesday, May 7 or Wednesday, May 8, on the campus of the stronger team. No at-large teams will be selected for the play-in games. Those play-in winners will travel to the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.
-
It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
-
The seven and eight seeds host two games in the first round leading to a second-round game at its home site, while the top six seeds get byes into the second round.
Play-in Games
Furman (SOUTHERN) at Jacksonville (ATLANTIC SUN)
Fairfield (MAAC) at Mount St. Mary’s (NORTHEAST)
College Park, Md.
Penn vs. Johns Hopkins
Winner plays at (1) Maryland (BIG TEN)
Ann Arbor, Mich.
Furman (SOCON)/Jacksonville (A-SUN) at (8) Michigan
Notre Dame vs. Colorado
Syracuse, N.Y.
Stony Brook (AMERICA EAST) vs. Stanford
Winner plays at (4) Syracuse
Charlottesville, Va.
Navy vs. Duke
Winner plays at (5) Virginia
Newton, Mass.
Denver (BIG EAST) vs. Dartmouth
Winner plays at (2) Boston College
Princeton, N.J.
Fairfield (MAAC)/Mount St. Mary’s (NEC) at (7) Princeton (IVY)
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Richmond (A-10)
Chapel Hill, N.C.
James Madison (CAA) vs. High Point (BIG SOUTH)
Winner play at (3) North Carolina (ACC)
Evanston, Ill.
Florida (AMERICAN) vs. USC (PAC-12)
Winner plays at (6) Northwestern
Last Four In: Penn, Stanford, Johns Hopkins, Duke
Last Four Out: Penn State, Massachusetts, Hofstra, Georgetown
Moving In: Duke, Richmond
Moving Out: Massachusetts, Penn State
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (6), Big Ten (4), Ivy League (3), Pac-12 (3), Patriot (2)