Bracketology: First-Seed Failures Hardly Impact Men's Bubble Picture

It’s going to be business as usual when the NCAA lacrosse committee convenes late Saturday afternoon in Indianapolis to select and seed the 17-team Division I tournament field.

Or so it hopes, anyway.

Brandon Macneill, Denver’s deputy athletic director and the committee’s chairman, remembers all too well the backlash from last year’s Selection Sunday and the calls for a revamped process.

That hasn’t happened yet, and the RPI — the metric everyone loves to hate — remains the NCAA’s primary sorting tool. Still, the committee is determined to use it with as much nuance as possible.

The RPI takes a team’s winning percentage and multiplies it by .25, its opponents’ winning percentage and multiplies it by .5 and its opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage and multiplies it by .25. Each team’s ranking is based on a sum of those three numbers.

Entering Friday’s games, Duke sits at No. 1 at .7079, according to Lacrosse Reference, followed by Virginia (.6793), Notre Dame (.6781), Maryland (.6453) and Johns Hopkins (.6423). The gap between No. 6 Cornell (.6290) and No. 11 Denver (.6065) is smaller than the space between Denver and No. 12 Boston U (.5763).

Hence Macneill’s scrutiny of what he calls “banding” during the selection process.

“Last year, the difference between Maryland and Georgetown was the same as [No. 3] Princeton to 9,” Macneill said. “People see the No. 1 and No. 2, and 8 and 12, but 8 and 12 could be a lot closer than 3 and 4. That’s something I know we’re trying to focus more on is, ‘Let’s look at the banding of the numbers as opposed to simple No. 1, No. 2, No. 3.’”

Another long-time variable facing the committee is an NCAA guideline to limit air travel in the first round, though Macneill is optimistic there could be some more flexibility.

He also is hopeful the committee can largely avoid any regular-season rematches in the first round. Last year’s opening weekend featured two rematches (Princeton-Boston U and Cornell-Ohio State).

“Sometimes that’s out of our hands, but I want if at all humanly possible to not have a repeat of regular season matchups between different conferences, especially in that first round,” Macneill said. “Just from the student-athlete experience, you want to play someone else. That’s sort of on the back end of it, but that’s something we’ll take into account if we can.”

This year’s committee is composed of Macneill, Delaware deputy athletic director Jordan Skolnick, Rutgers senior associate athletic director Matthew Colagiovanni, North Carolina coach Joe Breschi and St. Bonaventure coach Randy Mearns.

A look at the state of play through Thursday’s games, with all data courtesy of Lacrosse Reference.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (9)

Maryland (10-4) Big Ten

Cornell (11-2) Ivy

Georgetown (11-3) Big East

Boston U (10-3) Patriot

Bryant (11-4) America East

Utah (10-4) ASUN

Richmond (10-4) A-10

Delaware (11-4) CAA

Marist (9-7) MAAC

Maryland’s victory over Johns Hopkins means the Terrapins are well-positioned to land the No. 4 or No. 5 seed. The top of the Terrapins’ profile includes victories at Virginia and Johns Hopkins, as well as a home defeat of Penn State. … Cornell’s seeding situation is something to watch over the next few days. The Big Red open Ivy League tournament play Friday against Yale. …

Georgetown had little trouble dispatching Providence in the Big East semifinals, and the Hoyas head into Selection Sunday with the benefit of no bad losses. That’s a nice asset in case a surprise winner emerges in the Big Ten (Michigan) or Ivy (Princeton) tournaments. … Boston U’s attempt to win consecutive Patriot League tournaments begins Friday at home against Loyola. …

With Vermont bounced on its own field by Albany, Bryant is the top remaining seed in the America East tournament. The Bulldogs can earn their sixth NCAA berth since 2013 with a victory Saturday. … Utah meets Bellarmine in the first Atlantic Sun semifinal Friday. The Utes won the regular-season meeting 15-8 on March 18; it was their fewest goals in a conference game this year. …

Richmond is the top seed left in the Atlantic 10 after High Point toppled Saint Joseph’s on Thursday. The Spiders will meet High Point at home on Saturday, with a victory securing their fifth NCAA nod in 10 seasons as a Division I program. … Delaware avenged its loss to Towson in the regular-season finale and can earn a second consecutive CAA title with a victory over Stony Brook on Saturday. …

Less than a week after shellacking Quinnipiac for 29 goals, Marist dropped 19 on Mount St. Mary’s in the MAAC final. The Red Foxes are the top remaining seed in their tournament after Siena beat regular season champ Manhattan to extend its winning streak to four.

AT-LARGE (15 TEAMS/8 SLOTS)

Duke (12-2) ACC

Virginia (11-3) ACC

Notre Dame (9-2) ACC

Johns Hopkins (11-5) Big Ten

Penn State (9-4) Big Ten

Yale (8-4) Ivy

Penn (7-5) Ivy

Denver (10-4) Big East

North Carolina (7-6) ACC

Rutgers (8-6) Big Ten

Michigan (8-6) Big Ten

Villanova (10-5) Big East

Princeton (6-6) Ivy

Syracuse (8-7) ACC

Army (10-3) Patriot

Duke, Virginia and Notre Dame are going to be the top three in some order, assuming Notre Dame beats North Carolina on Saturday and Duke handles Merrimack on Sunday. … There is still a significant (but not insurmountable) RPI gap between Johns Hopkins and Cornell. The Blue Jays have a top-five RPI, a top-five strength of schedule and a top-five victory on the road (Maryland). It’s a rock-solid profile. …

Whatever shot Penn State had at sneaking into the top three is over after a 17-15 loss to Michigan in the Big Ten semifinals. But the Nittany Lions’ Ivy League dominance — with victories over Cornell, Penn and Yale — plus a defeat of Johns Hopkins should ensure Jeff Tambroni’s bunch opens the postseason at home. … With Michigan still lurking in the Big Ten tournament, both Penn (against Princeton) and Yale (against Cornell) should have some added urgency in the Ivy tournament. Neither is completely safe just yet. …

Denver was in control throughout its 16-9 rout of Villanova in the Big East semifinals. With a better RPI and strength of schedule and a sweep of the Wildcats, the Pioneers have some separation over their Big East brethren. … North Carolina remains in the mix for an at-large, but that’s contingent on beating Notre Dame on Saturday. …

Rutgers moved up a spot in the RPI since Sunday without playing, and it is likely to end up one of the first three teams on the outside of the field. The Scarlet Knights’ early exit from the Big Ten tournament means they have no chance to help themselves the last week of the season. … Michigan can at least make an at-large case for itself after adding its Big Ten semifinal victory over Penn State to its 16-11 triumph at Maryland last month. Realistically, though, the Wolverines need to beat the Terrapins again to get into the field. …

The numbers don’t look good for Villanova after its loss to Denver. If you squint hard enough, maybe — maybe — Michigan, North Carolina and Penn all losing their next game and Princeton falling in the Ivy title game could get them to right around the cut line. But that’s probably a stretch. … Both Princeton and Army need to win their respective conference tournaments to make the field. …

Syracuse isn’t making it, but it is remarkable the Orange are now 0-6 against the top five in the RPI and 8-1 against everyone else. April victories over North Carolina and Princeton bode well for the future.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

* First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.

* This year marks the first season of Atlantic 10 play, while the Northeast and Southern conferences no longer sponsor the sport. That means the number of play-in games will be reduced from two to one, and the two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will participate. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.

* Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-16 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.

* Quarterfinal host Albany would be funneled into its home site if it reaches the NCAA tournament.

* This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Annapolis, Md.

(1) Duke vs. COLONIAL/Delaware-METRO ATLANTIC/Marist
(8) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. Yale

Albany, N.Y.

(5) Penn State vs. Denver
(4) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. AMERICA EAST/Bryant

Albany, N.Y.

(3) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah
(6) Johns Hopkins vs. Penn

Annapolis, Md.

(7) IVY/Cornell vs. PATRIOT/Boston U
(2) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Richmond

Last three included: Yale, Denver, Penn
First three on the outside: Michigan, North Carolina, Rutgers
Moving in: Bryant, Marist, Richmond
Moving out: Manhattan, Saint Joseph’s, Vermont
Conference call: Atlantic Coast (3), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3), Big East (2)