Bracketology: Four Games That Will Make or Break the Bubble

A mere 11 games remain before the NCAA men’s lacrosse tournament. Nine will determine conference champions, and the other two feature teams (Duke and Notre Dame) that will be among the favorites in the 17-team, 20-day sprint to Memorial Day.

Only four, though, can impact the eight at-large postseason berths. And any attempt at a bracket breakdown needs to spotlight those contests.

Notre Dame at North Carolina (Saturday, noon, ACC Network)

This game has a significant impact if the host Tar Heels can snag a victory to pair with their Feb. 14 defeat of Johns Hopkins. But if they drop their fourth in a row, they’re effectively eliminated as an at-large possibility.

Big East final: Georgetown vs. Denver in Milwaukee (Saturday, 4:30, CBS Sports Network)

Top-seeded Georgetown is in better at-large shape as it chases its fifth consecutive Big East tournament title than the second-seeded Pioneers, but there’s a scenario with enough chaos that the Hoyas could be sweating things out on Sunday if they lose.

Conversely, a weekend without turbulence elsewhere could allow Denver to get in even if it loses to the Hoyas. One of them won’t have to worry about the details come dinner time tonight.

Big Ten final: Maryland vs. Michigan in Baltimore (Saturday, 5:30, Big Ten Network)

Fourth-seeded Michigan’s resume has a fair bit going for it — a victory at Maryland last month, a rollicking 17-15 defeat of Penn State on Thursday in the Big Ten semifinals — but it also included a Feb. 25 loss to Marquette that no one would have guessed would loom so large now.

If Michigan wins, it bumps someone from the field. If it loses, it’s a bullet dodged for someone, probably a Big East or Ivy League program.

Ivy League final: Princeton vs. Yale in New York (Sunday, noon, ESPN2)

Third-seeded Princeton wouldn’t have a great case for an at-large berth at 7-7, so it needs to win a second game in three days to earn its second consecutive NCAA berth. Yale did itself a great deal of good with its rout of Cornell on Friday and is vulnerable to getting squeezed out of the field only with maximum chaos over the next couple days.

The Bulldogs are going to have some fans well beyond New Haven as they seek their seventh victory in a row and play in their seventh consecutive Ivy League final.

On to the full rundown through Friday’s games. All data courtesy of Lacrosse Reference.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (9)

Maryland (10-4) Big Ten

Georgetown (11-3) Big East

Utah (11-4) ASUN

Princeton (7-6) Ivy

Army (11-3) Patriot League

Bryant (11-4) America East

Richmond (10-4) Atlantic 10

Delaware (11-4) CAA

Marist (9-7) MAAC

“No one roots for Maryland other than Maryland folks,” ESPN’s Quint Kessenich observed during Friday’s Cornell-Yale broadcast when it was pointed out every borderline team will be pulling for the Terrapins in the Big Ten final against Michigan. More evidence of the weirdness that is early May. … Had Michigan and Princeton been bounced in their respective league semifinals, Georgetown would have had much more of a safety net heading into the Big East final than it enjoys. The Hoyas might get in even with a loss, but they’d be much better off just handling business. …

Utah outlasted Bellarmine 17-14 in the ASUN semifinals. The Utes will look to secure their first NCAA berth when they meet Air Force on Sunday. … Princeton is the top remaining seed in the Ivy tournament, so it’s slotted as an automatic qualifier. The Tigers face a win-or-else scenario Sunday against Yale; an at-large is not in their future on Sunday. …

Army handled Lehigh in the Patriot semifinals. The Black Knights face Loyola, which will be playing its third game in six days, on Sunday. … Bryant gets a rematch of its 20-16 defeat of Albany in the regular season as it plays in its first America East final. The Bulldogs led 15-4 at halftime of the first meeting. …

Richmond makes its ninth consecutive conference title game appearance Saturday, and five of those games have come against High Point. The teams split their four previous games with an NCAA tournament berth at stake. … Delaware beat Stony Brook 12-9 on Long Island three weeks ago. The Blue Hens will probably end up hosting a play-in game unless either Albany (America East) or High Point (Atlantic 10) wins its conference final. …

What seemed extremely likely is now certain: The MAAC champion will be part of the play-in game. Marist (RPI: 45) and Siena (51) are the two lowest-ranked teams of the 18 playing in conference title games this weekend.

AT-LARGE (13 TEAMS/8 SLOTS)

Duke (12-2) ACC

Virginia (11-3) ACC

Notre Dame (9-2) ACC

Johns Hopkins (11-5) Big Ten

Yale (9-4) Ivy League

Cornell (11-3) Ivy League

Penn State (9-4) Big Ten

Denver (10-4) Big East

Penn (7-6) Ivy League

Rutgers (8-6) Big Ten

North Carolina (7-6) ACC

Michigan (8-6) Big Ten

Villanova (10-5) Big East

Random tidbit: Duke is the only team in the top eight of the RPI not to lose at home this season. The Blue Devils’ losses came at Notre Dame and Jacksonville. Penn State and Denver, which sit in the top 10 heading into the weekend, also are undefeated at home. … Virginia is in the clubhouse, so its profile won’t change much in the next couple days. … Notre Dame can tack on another top-20 victory when it visits North Carolina on Saturday. …

Johns Hopkins makes a lot of sense as a No. 5 or No. 6 seed, regardless of how the weekend plays out. … Yale’s case for a home game is a lot better after its 22-15 victory over Cornell. A quick look at the profiles of the Bulldogs and the Big Red makes it hard to argue Cornell ahead of Yale, at least for now. …

Did Cornell cost itself a postseason home game with its loss to Yale? Possibly. The Big Red could find themselves on a bus to Georgetown, Johns Hopkins or Penn State next week, depending on this weekend’s results. … If it comes down to Penn State and Cornell for the last seeded spot, the Nittany Lions’ 10-6 victory in Ithaca on March 11 will be part of the conversation. So will its defeats of Hopkins, Penn and Yale. …

Count Denver among the teams pulling for the Notre Dame-Maryland-Yale parlay. Of course, the Pioneers could just take matters into their own hands and win their first Big East tournament since 2015. … A Penn victory over Princeton on Friday would have been doubly good for the Quakers, improving their own profile while sweeping aside a possible bid snatcher. Instead, it was doubly bad. Princeton plays on, and Penn needs some help. …

Rutgers is up three spots in the RPI since Sunday. The Scarlet Knights can thank victories over conference finalists in six different leagues: Loyola, Marist, Michigan, Princeton, Stony Brook and Utah. … It’s the same refrain for North Carolina: Without a victory over Notre Dame, the Tar Heels’ case for an at-large just isn’t that strong. …

Michigan is trying to become the third team to beat Maryland twice in a season in coach John Tillman’s 13-year tenure. The others: 2014 Notre Dame and 2019 Johns Hopkins. … There just isn’t quite enough on Villanova’s resume to get it into the field this season.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

* First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.

* This year marks the first season of Atlantic 10 play, while the Northeast and Southern conferences no longer sponsor the sport. That means the number of play-in games will be reduced from two to one, and the two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will participate. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.

* Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-16 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.

* Quarterfinal host Albany would be funneled into its home site if it reaches the NCAA tournament.

* This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Annapolis, Md.

(1) Duke vs. CAA/Delaware-MAAC/Marist

(8) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. Cornell

Albany, N.Y.

(5) Penn State vs. PATRIOT/Army

(4) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. AMERICA EAST/Bryant

Albany, N.Y.

(3) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

(6) Johns Hopkins vs. IVY/Princeton

Annapolis, Md.

(7) Yale vs. Denver

(2) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Richmond

Last three in: Yale, Cornell, Denver

First three out: Penn, Michigan, North Carolina

Moving in: Army, Princeton

Moving out: Boston University, Penn

Conference call: ACC (3), Big Ten (3), Ivy (3), Big East (2)