Bracketology: Selection Sunday Morning Edition

The NCAA lacrosse committee will unveil its 17-team bracket Sunday night, after another four early afternoon games produce three more automatic qualifiers and the final touches on the possible No. 1 seed’s profile.

Not many questions are left. But there are a few worth touching on before getting to the last full-field rundown.

What is the most incredible scenario in play?

It has to be that Princeton would probably end Bill Tierney’s career if it wins the Ivy League tournament, right? Tierney built the Tigers into a juggernaut, winning six national titles in a 10-year span. He headed west to Denver for a second chapter as a Division I head coach and led the Pioneers to the 2015 national title.

He’s retiring at the end of the season, whenever that is. It’s hard to see room for Denver — which did not impress in a 14-5 loss to Georgetown in the Big East title game Saturday — if Princeton wins the Ivy. If Yale knocks off the Tigers, there is an at-large spot for someone to claim. Denver and Penn easily have the best arguments to be that someone.

What else is at stake on Sunday?

The automatic bids in the Patriot League and the Atlantic Sun. Army (11-3) meets Loyola (9-7) in Boston to determine the Patriot champion, while Utah (11-4) faces Air Force (11-5) in Moon Township, Pa., in the Atlantic Sun final. Both are one-bid leagues, but any of those teams could cause problems as a first-round opponent.

What will be the final tally on bid snatchers?

One or two. Princeton would fall in this category, but there was already some bracket disruption thanks to Michigan’s 14-5 blowout of Maryland in the Big Ten final. The Wolverines needed victories over Ohio State, Penn State and Maryland in an eight-day span, and their mix of a veteran attack and a stellar faceoff game will make them a most unpleasant first-round matchup for somebody.

Who is the No. 1 seed?

It will be an ACC team.

Count on that being a question committee chair Brandon Macneill (Denver’s deputy athletic director) faces whether Duke, Notre Dame or Virginia winds up in the top slot. The guess here remains Duke, assuming it defeats Merrimack on Sunday.

Will there be a curveball during the selection show?

Not to the extent of last year, when long tournament appearance streaks owned by Duke and Notre Dame ended abruptly and the Ivy League sent a six-pack of teams into the postseason.

There could be some bickering over the top seed, but it’s clear who the top three are. The last of the seeded teams (especially if Yale loses Sunday) could provoke some scrutiny. But here’s guessing the biggest conversation revolves around the last spot in the field, especially if Yale wins the Ivy League and bumps Princeton from the field.

On to the full rundown through Saturday’s games. All data courtesy of Lacrosse Reference.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (9)

Georgetown (12-3) Big East

Michigan (9-6) Big Ten

Utah (11-4) ASUN

Princeton (7-6) Ivy League

Bryant (12-4) America East

Army (11-3) Patriot League

Richmond (11-4) Atlantic 10

Delaware (12-4) CAA

Marist (10-7) MAAC

It’s going to be difficult to deny Georgetown a home game after it tore through the weekend for its fifth consecutive Big East tournament title. The Hoyas have won 12 in a row and have clinched their 16th all-time NCAA tournament berth. Plausible first-round opponents on the Hilltop: Cornell, Penn, Yale (if it loses in the Ivy final) and Michigan. …

Speaking of Michigan, the Wolverines are off to the NCAA tournament for the first time after drubbing Maryland 14-5 in the Big Ten final. Michigan was under .500 a little more than two weeks ago and now looks like it will be headed to Georgetown or an Ivy League site for the first round. … Utah goes for its first NCAA berth Sunday against Air Force. The winner has to fly somewhere, and somebody has to fly to Notre Dame. The Irish welcoming the ASUN champ for a first-round game makes all the sense in the world. …

Princeton needs to beat Yale on Sunday to get into the tournament; a loss will end the Tigers’ season. Princeton’s destination with a victory would probably be a Big Ten site (Johns Hopkins, Maryland or Penn State), with Georgetown a possibility. … Bryant is back in the tournament after a one-year hiatus. The Bulldogs, making their sixth NCAA trip, are within a 400-mile drive of Johns Hopkins but not Maryland (at least according to Google Maps). That might be a convenient matchup for the committee. …

Army meets Loyola in Boston on Sunday afternoon to determine the Patriot League title. The winner is a possible fit to visit Virginia, Maryland, Hopkins or Penn State (and yes, Army is just inside the 400-mile window to get to Charlottesville). … Richmond is back in the tournament for the second year in a row and fifth time ever. If the committee really cares about avoiding regular-season rematches, it could send the Spiders to Penn State. But for the sake of convenience and bracket integrity, a trip west on Interstate 64 to Virginia would be an easy pairing. …

Looks like Delaware will host a play-in game for the second year in a row. The Blue Hens will make their eighth all-time NCAA tournament appearance after dispatching Stony Brook in the CAA final. … Marist earned the MAAC’s automatic berth and will be part of Wednesday’s play-in game. The Red Foxes are making their fourth NCAA trip and first since 2019.

AT-LARGE (13 TEAMS/8 SLOTS)

Duke (12-2) ACC

Notre Dame (10-2) ACC

Virginia (11-3) ACC

Johns Hopkins (11-5) Big Ten

Maryland (10-5) Big Ten

Yale (9-4) Ivy League

Cornell (11-3) Ivy League

Penn State (9-4) Big Ten

Denver (10-5) Big Ten

Penn (7-6) Ivy League

Rutgers (8-6) Big Ten

North Carolina (7-7) ACC

Villanova (10-5) Big East

The committee has a mixed recent history of funneling the No. 1 overall seed to the quarterfinal site nearest to its campus. Maryland went to Delaware (2017) and Navy (2018) rather than Hofstra, but Penn State was sent to East Hartford rather than Hofstra in 2019. Last year, Maryland was shipped to Columbus instead of Hofstra. Which is to say Duke might land a No. 1 seed and go to Albany, anyway. …

Notre Dame closed out the regular season by thumping North Carolina for the second time in three weekends. The Irish are on their way to a top-three seed. … Virginia fell a spot in the RPI to third during its open date, but the gap between it and Notre Dame is not significant. It certainly isn’t enough to disqualify the Cavaliers from being seeded ahead of a team it swept during the regular season. …

The likely seeding range for Johns Hopkins: between No. 4 and No. 6. … The same goes for Maryland despite its poor showing in the Big Ten title game. It’s tempting to think about a Blue Jays-Terrapins Round III in a quarterfinal in Annapolis, but if Maryland plays like it did against Michigan on Saturday, it won’t make it out of the first round. …

Both Denver and Penn fans will be pulling for Yale in the Ivy League final. The Bulldogs are in solid shape for an at-large if they need it thanks to victories over Cornell and Denver. … Cornell’s probably closer to the edge of the field than anyone would have expected, but it was only getting bumped if there was an absurd amount of chaos this weekend. It’s been a wild few days, but the Big Red should get in. …

The RPI number isn’t fabulous for Penn State, but it is hard to ignore those three top-10 victories (Cornell, Hopkins and Yale). The Nittany Lions have earned a home game. … Denver’s best victories are against Villanova (twice), North Carolina and Utah. If Utah loses the ASUN final to Air Force, the Pioneers will have no victories against the tournament field. That might come up as an explanation if Denver is left out. …

Penn didn’t take care of business against Princeton, but its victories over Georgetown (Big East champ) and Yale (Ivy League finalist) have gotten more valuable this week. It won’t matter, though, if Princeton wins the Ivy final. … Rutgers must rue not winning one of its combined four games against Hopkins, Maryland and Penn State. It could have been a five-team Big Ten contingent, especially with the Scarlet Knights’ defeat of Michigan growing in value. …

North Carolina lost its last four and didn’t win a game after March 25. That speaks to both the Tar Heels’ struggles and the challenges the ACC has in scheduling with an odd number of teams. … Villanova dropped four of its last seven, including a pair to Denver by a combined 13 goals. That was enough to sink the Wildcats’ at-large hopes.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering:

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.

• This year marks the first season of Atlantic 10 play, while the Northeast and Southern conferences no longer sponsor the sport. That means the number of play-in games will be reduced from two to one, and the two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will participate. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.

• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-16 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely unflexible rule.

• Quarterfinal host Albany would be funneled into its home site if it reaches the NCAA tournament.

• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Albany, N.Y.

(1) Duke vs. CAA/Delaware-MAAC/Marist

(8) Yale vs. BIG TEN/Michigan

Annapolis, Md.

(5) Maryland vs. PATRIOT/Army

(4) Johns Hopkins vs. AMERICA EAST/Bryant

Albany, N.Y.

(3) Notre Dame vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

(6) Penn State vs. IVY/Princeton

Annapolis, Md.

(7) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. Cornell

(2) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Richmond

Last three in: Penn State, Yale, Cornell

First three out: Denver, Penn, Rutgers

Moving in: Michigan

Moving out: Denver

Conference call: Big Ten (4), ACC (3), Ivy League (3)