Men's Tewaaraton Stock Watch: The Finalists Prediction

Let’s not overcomplicate things when it comes to the Tewaaraton Award as the NCAA tournament gets underway.

If Cornell wins the national title, CJ Kirst will win the Tewaaraton. If Duke wins the national title, Brennan O’Neill will win the Tewaaraton. If Notre Dame wins the national title, Pat Kavanagh will win the Tewaaraton.

Those are three first-team all-Americans, they’ve enjoyed monster seasons and they will be a massive part of any success their teams enjoy the rest of this month. And in case anyone needs a reminder, 11 of the Tewaaraton’s 22 all-time men’s winners played on a national title team and 16 appeared on Memorial Day Weekend.

Only eight of the 105 Tewaaraton finalists didn’t play for an NCAA tournament team.

Those trends inform the last Tewaaraton Watch prior to this week’s release of the five finalists. And the top three, all mentioned above, are obvious choices to be in the mix for the sport’s top individual honor.

1. CJ Kirst, A, Cornell (63 G, 18 A)

Kirst tacked on another five goals Friday in the Big Red’s 22-15 loss to Yale, and he heads into the NCAA tournament as the national leader in goals and points. He’s three goals away from matching the Cornell record for goals in a season set last year by former teammate John Piatelli.

Kirst’s chances ultimately hinge on two things. One, can Cornell make another deep run like last year? And two, is there a Tewaaraton finalist on the eventual national champion? Still, there’s no doubt Kirst will be one of the five names revealed later this week.

2. Brennan O’Neill, A, Duke (44 G, 36 A)

The junior had two goals and four assists in the first quarter (and finished with two goals and seven assists) as Duke closed out the regular season with a 14-2 rout of Merrimack. It was his seventh game of at least six points this season.

A random stat: Duke has produced a pair of Tewaaraton winners (Matt Danowski in 2007 and Ned Crotty in 2010) but none of its last six finalists claimed the trophy. That group includes CJ Costabile (2012), Jordan Wolf (2014), Myles Jones (2015-16), Justin Guterding (2018) and Michael Sowers (2021).

3. Pat Kavanagh, A, Notre Dame (20 G, 45 A)

The nation’s leader in assists closed out the regular season with a half-dozen of them (along with a goal), as the Irish pummeled North Carolina 18-9. On a per-game basis, Kavanagh’s numbers are imposing. With only 12 regular-season games, there weren’t as many opportunities to roll up raw numbers.

Kavanagh’s impact, from his table-setting abilities to his ferocious riding, is clear enough. If Notre Dame wins its first national title, he’ll be in the middle of a lot of impactful plays over the next three weekends.

4. Connor Shellenberger, A, Virginia (19 G, 43 A)

Status quo for Shellenberger, whose team wrapped up its season a week prior to Selection Sunday and should be rested for the first round of the NCAA tournament.

That bodes well for a redshirt junior who has both a track record of postseason brilliance (he was the most outstanding player of the 2021 tournament) and some nagging injuries this year. A healthy Shellenberger is a better Shellenberger, and if he is a finalist, he’s the likely winner if Virginia takes a victory lap on Memorial Day.

5. Tucker Dordevic, A, Georgetown (57 G, 13 A)

The Big East’s attackman of the year and the most outstanding player of the Big East tournament, the graduate transfer from Syracuse has provided stellar play over the last month.

In the Hoyas’ first eight games, Dordevic had 24 goals and five assists while shooting 26.4 percent. In the seven games (all victories) since, he has 33 goals and eight assists and is shooting 45.8 percent. With Georgetown heading into the NCAA tournament with the longest winning streak in the country (12), it would come as no surprise if Dordevic earns a finalist nod from the Tewaaraton committee.

Next five: Matt Brandau, A, Yale; Matt Campbell, M, Villanova; Tye Kurtz, A, Delaware; Coulter Mackesy, A, Princeton; Josh Zawada, A, Michigan