NCAA Bracketology: The Final Division I Men's Bracket Projection

Alas, it is now time for the final bracket projection before Selection Sunday.

The four Sunday games didn’t change the composition of the NCAA Division I tournament field, though Princeton’s defeat of Penn did push the Tigers closer to landing a top-eight seed. But Penn State has a top-10 victory and Princeton doesn’t, and the Tigers’ defeat at Brown last month is the worst loss of any team in the field besides the two likely play-in participants.

The last at-large bid likely comes down to Penn State and Penn. The Quakers have a top-five win (at Duke) and Penn State owns a top-10 victory (Maryland on a neutral field). Both have four wins in the 11-20 range (Penn State beat Cornell, Yale, Michigan and Villanova, while Penn upended Cornell twice and also knocked off Villanova and Harvard). Both have a loss outside the top 20. Penn State owns the RPI edge.

The guess here is Penn State collects that spot, though it’s a closer-than-anticipated call.

One tweak to the bracket from the morning was flipping Princeton to play at Penn State for the second year in a row while sending Georgetown to play at Maryland. Would the committee prefer to avoid a first-round rematch, or a regular-season rematch (Maryland beat Princeton in February)? Or does it even matter?

If the eight seeded teams in the final projection are correct — in whatever order — it means all of the at-large selections will play at home and every automatic qualifier will be unseeded. Just an unusual quirk.

The following is based on RPI data available on the afternoon of Sunday, May 5.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (9)

Georgetown matched 1989-94 North Carolina as the only Division I men’s lacrosse teams to win six consecutive conference tournament titles. The Hoyas have won every Big East tournament since 2018 (with no tournament in 2020) and will make their 17th NCAA tournament appearance after winning two overtime games in three days. … Princeton looks like a team that’s navigated playoff lacrosse for the last three weekends. The Tigers walloped Penn 18-11 to clinch their third NCAA trip in a row and 23rd overall.

Michigan pulverized Penn State 16-4 in the Big Ten final to earn its second consecutive automatic bid. The Wolverines have to fly somewhere, and somebody has to fly to Denver. It’s hard to envision the committee passing on that pairing. … Saint Joseph’s pulled away from Richmond to win the Atlantic 10 final. The Hawks will make their second NCAA trip; their first was in 2022 when they lost to Yale. …

Towson is back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2019 after throttling Delaware 15-6 in the CAA. The Tigers will make their 16th all-time NCAA appearance and sixth under coach Shawn Nadelen. … Looks like Lehigh would be a good fit (both geographically and for competitive balance) to visit the No. 3 seed, which could be either Johns Hopkins or Syracuse, if it wins the Patriot League final. The Mountain Hawks earned their fourth NCAA berth and first since 2021 by defeating Boston University in the Patriot League final.

Utah handled Jacksonville in the Atlantic Sun final, and bracket integrity suggests Duke is the likely first-round destination for the Utes. With the play-in winner from the East Coast going to Notre Dame and Michigan requiring a flight as well, the committee is going to need three flights to put together a bracket with competitive equity. … Sacred Heart will make its NCAA tournament debut after rolling past Manhattan in the Metro Atlantic final. The Pioneers are looking at a Wednesday date in the play-in game. …

Albany fended off Vermont in the America East final to earn its 11th NCAA berth and first since 2018. The Great Danes are likely headed to the play-in game.

AT LARGE  (12 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

Notre Dame will be the No. 1 seed and Duke will be the No. 2 seed, and it was going to be that way regardless of Sunday’s ACC title game. But the Irish left no doubt, anyway, with a 16-6 victory. … Whatever the order, Johns Hopkins and Syracuse will be the Nos. 3 and 4 seeds despite conference semifinal losses. Bank on Hopkins getting funneled into a quarterfinal at Towson, while the Orange is ticketed to a quarterfinal at Hofstra if it wins its NCAA opener. …

Virginia did not end up with the No. 1 strength of schedule, but the gap in that category between the Cavaliers and Denver should be an asset in the conversation for the No. 5 seed. Virginia went 0-5 against the top four teams in the RPI and 10-0 against everyone else. … Denver has missed back-to-back NCAA tournaments and three of the last four, but the Pioneers are certain to hear their name called Sunday night. …

Can the committee seed Maryland ahead of a Penn State team it just lost to by 10 on a neutral field? Remember, the Terrapins’ victory on the road against the Nittany Lions still counts, too. … For those wondering how things would have worked out if Michigan hadn’t won the Big Ten, Penn probably would have edged out Cornell for the last at-large berth even with its Ivy title game loss. A lot of good that does the Quakers now. …

Looks like Yale will be shut out of the postseason in a year the Bulldogs took the field for the first time since 2014. … Army remains included for comparative purposes, but the Black Knights aren’t going to land an at-large bid.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will meet in a play-in game on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-17 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal host and CAA champion Towson will be funneled into its home site.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Princeton

Towson, Md.

(5) Virginia vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(4) Johns Hopkins vs. CAA/Towson

Hempstead, N.Y.

(3) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Lehigh
(6) Denver vs. BIG TEN/Michigan

Towson, Md.

(7) Maryland vs. BIG EAST/Georgetown
(2) Duke vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Last three included: Denver, Maryland, Penn State
First three on the outside: Penn, Cornell, Yale
Moving in: Michigan
Moving out: Penn
Conference call: ACC (4), Big Ten (4), Big East (2)