NCAA Bracketology: No Shockers

The reveal of the NCAA lacrosse committee’s top 10 teams entering play Saturday wasn’t exactly stunning.

Consider what last week’s USA Lacrosse Magazine’s eight seeds (which did not account for Friday’s games) looked like against the committee’s top eight (which did).

Of course, neither of these could have accounted for what happened on Saturday, when Syracuse landed the most impactful victory of the weekend by edging Virginia 18-17. The Orange now rank in the top five of the RPI and strength of schedule and own three top-10 victories, more than anyone other than Notre Dame (four) and Johns Hopkins (three).

Its seeding in this week’s projection reflects its improved profile. But nothing else warranted a shuffling in the order of the other seven programs in both lists above, and they remain in position to land home games in the NCAA tournament with less than two weeks to go before Selection Sunday.

The following is based on RPI data available on the morning of Wednesday, April 24.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (9)

With its 7-5 victory over Maryland, Johns Hopkins is set up well to not have to travel beyond the Baltimore Beltway before Memorial Day Weekend. The Blue Jays’ metrics all but guarantee a first-round home game, and there’s a decent chance they’ll be in one of the quadrants of the bracket funneled to Towson for the quarterfinals. … Denver is also just about out of games to lose that could cost it a first-round home game. A victory over Marquette at home on Friday should all but lock in the Pioneers for a game at Peter Barton Stadium the second weekend in May.

Cornell can clinch the top seed in the Ivy League tournament — and hosting rights — with a victory at Dartmouth on Saturday. The Big Red have won 11 meetings in a row and 23 of 24 against the Big Green, and their last loss in Hanover came in 1997. … Army can clinch a share of the Patriot League title with a victory at Loyola on Friday. Colgate, Loyola and Lehigh also remain in contention for at least a piece of the conference crown. …

Saint Joseph’s visits Richmond on Saturday in the game of the year in the Atlantic 10, at least for the regular season. The winner will be the top seed in the conference tournament, which will be played at UMass. … Towson visits Delaware on Friday, with the winner earning the outright CAA regular-season title. The tournament will be played next week at Towson. …

If Utah wins the Atlantic Sun and is not in a play-in game, it seems like a sure shot to go to Denver for the first round. Utah will have to fly no matter where it goes, and anyone other than Air Force (which is in the same one-bid league as the Utes) would have to fly to Denver. It would be an easy pairing for the committee to make. … Winners of nine in a row, Sacred Heart earned an open weekend but will not host the Metro Atlantic tournament because it is not (yet) a full member. The Pioneers enter the MAAC in all sports this summer. …

Albany has not played host to the America East tournament since 2018, a drought that would end if the Great Danes beat Binghamton at home on Saturday. Scott Marr’s bunch sits a game clear of four other teams entering the final week of the regular season.

AT LARGE  (12 TEAMS/8 SPOTS)

Duke moved into the top spot in the RPI in part because Notre Dame’s metrics were actually hurt a little just by playing North Carolina. The Blue Devils’ turn to face the Tar Heels comes up this weekend. … Even at No. 2 in the RPI, Notre Dame clearly has the best profile. It also has a head-to-head win at Duke. The Irish can further bolster their resume Saturday at Virginia. …

Go ahead and prepare the Dome for its traditional Sunday night first-round game. Syracuse isn’t going to slip out of the top eight even if it loses its ACC tournament semifinal, and it will open the NCAA tournament at home for the first time since 2018. … Virginia has lost back-to-back regular season games for the first time since 2017, and it has Notre Dame coming to town. The Cavaliers are low-key in danger of getting shipped on the road for a first-round game if they lose out thanks to a profile that’s skimpy beyond a victory at Maryland. …

The math isn’t complicated for Maryland: If it makes the Big Ten final (which means Penn State wouldn’t), it’s hard to imagine the Terrapins getting shipped on the road in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Two teams would need to slip past Maryland for the Terps to leave College Park for the opening weekend, and it’s hard to envision that happening if Penn State isn’t one of them. …

Penn State handled business against Rutgers on Friday, and now they get the Scarlet Knights again. The Nittany Lions’ victories over Ivy League leaders Cornell and Yale continue to make a difference in Penn State’s seeding. … The numbers suggest Yale has a cushion as the seventh at-large team out of eight (assuming it doesn’t win the Ivy tournament). The Bulldogs clearly have a better profile than Georgetown thanks to superior metrics. Yale trumps Penn because of a head-to-head defeat and no significant losses. …

The best way for Georgetown to reach the postseason is to win the Big East tournament. The second-best is to demolish anyone it faces not named Denver and hope for any other contenders to sputter. That made Saturday an excellent day for the Hoyas, who routed St. John’s 20-5 and saw Penn lose at Princeton. Another helpful development for Georgetown: Loyola moved into the RPI’s top 20, erasing (for now) a significant loss. …

Penn’s loss to Princeton means it has work to do in the Ivy tournament. It also ensured the Quakers would not play host to the May 3-5 event. … It still doesn’t seem like Michigan has much of a path to an at-large. But maybe if it beats Ohio State and Johns Hopkins before a Big Ten final loss and both Georgetown and Penn collapse down the stretch, it could happen. The Wolverines probably need to win the Big Ten tournament again. …

Princeton kept its at-large conversation going by beating Penn. Now it needs to knock off Yale on the road. … Colgate’s set of top-20 victories (Penn State, Loyola and Army) mean it is worth mentioning, but its three losses outside the top 20 will invariably trip up its at-large chances. The Raiders’ NCAA hopes rest solely with earning the Patriot League’s automatic berth.

BRACKET

A few notes worth remembering …

• First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
• The two lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams will meet in a play-in game on the Wednesday leading into the first round. The rankings will be determined by the committee and not specifically by the RPI.
• Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-17 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
• Quarterfinal hosts Hofstra and Towson would be funneled into their home sites if either reaches the NCAA tournament.
• This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.

Hempstead, N.Y.

(1) Notre Dame vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Sacred Heart-AMERICA EAST/Albany
(8) Penn State vs. IVY/Cornell

Hempstead, N.Y.

(5) Syracuse vs. PATRIOT/Army
(4) BIG EAST/Denver vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah

Towson, Md.

(3) BIG TEN/Johns Hopkins vs. ATLANTIC 10/Saint Joseph’s
(6) Virginia vs. Georgetown

Towson, Md.

(7) Maryland vs. Yale
(2) Duke vs. CAA/Towson

Last three included: Penn State, Yale, Georgetown
First three on the outside: Penn, Michigan, Princeton
Moving in: Utah
Moving out: Air Force
Conference call: Atlantic Coast (4), Big Ten (3), Big East (2), Ivy (2)