Sorting Through Remaining Division I Men's Conference Tournament Scenarios

Sorting out the Patriot League’s seeding scenarios might just be about as much fun as you can have without having any fun at all.

That’s not to knock the top six teams in the league, which have all clinched berths in the conference tournament with a final round of games to come on Friday. There just isn’t much daylight between Army, Boston U, Colgate, Lehigh, Loyola and Navy, at least not yet, and sifting through the math of the 16 remaining scenarios is an effective way to occupy an hour (or more).

Three teams — Army, Colgate and Loyola — can still play host to the conference tournament. Lehigh remains in contention for a bye into the semifinals. And while Boston U and Navy are stuck playing in next Tuesday’s quarterfinals, both could earn a home game under the right circumstances.

The Black Knights (10-2, 5-2) will be the top seed with a victory over Loyola and a Colgate loss to Boston U, or a victory coupled with wins by both Lehigh (against Lafayette) and Navy (against Bucknell).

Loyola’s route is basically the same. If the Greyhounds (7-6, 5-2) beat Army in Baltimore, they’ll need either a Colgate loss or wins by Lehigh and Navy.

Colgate’s path to the top spot has a bit less wiggle room. The Raiders (8-5, 5-2) will snag the No. 1 seed with a win so long as at least one of Lehigh and Navy lose.

Elsewhere in the Patriot League, Lehigh is assured the No. 2 seed with a victory unless both Bucknell and Colgate win and can even get to that spot with a loss if Colgate also loses. Boston U clinches a home quarterfinal with a victory but will be the No. 6 seed with a loss. And Navy can only get a home quarterfinal (as the No. 3 seed) if it, Boston U and Lehigh all win.

As for where the other nine leagues in Division I stand …

ACC

Top seed: Notre Dame (9-1, 3-0) has clinched the top seed prior to its regular-season finale Saturday at Virginia.

Who’s in: Syracuse (11-4, 3-1) will be the No. 2 seed. Duke (11-3, 1-2), Virginia (10-3, 1-2) and North Carolina (6-7, 0-3) are competing for two spots, though the Tar Heels would be eliminated with a loss to Duke.

AMERICA EAST

Top seed: Albany (6-7, 5-1) has the most clear-cut path: Beat Binghamton, and it finishes alone in first. But five schools can claim at least a share of the league title, including Binghamton (6-6, 4-2), which takes the top seed with a victory and a Bryant loss to Merrimack.

Who’s in: Only Albany is in for sure. The winner of UMBC-Vermont is assured a spot, and the loser gets in with a Bryant loss. Bryant clinches a berth with a win but is eliminated with a loss. Binghamton gets in with a win or a Bryant loss. Merrimack (5-8, 3-3) also remains alive for a tournament berth, but it needs to win and for Albany to upend Binghamton to extend its season.

ATLANTIC SUN

Top seed: Jacksonville (10-4, 7-1), Utah (9-4, 7-1) and Air Force (8-5, 7-1) are all tied for the league lead entering the final regular season weekend. They will be the top three seeds in some order, with Air Force the predetermined host.

Who’s in: Bellarmine (9-6, 5-3) will play in one of next Tuesday’s quarterfinals, with Cleveland State (7-7, 4-4), Robert Morris (5-8, 4-4) and Detroit (3-9, 3-5) vying for the last two spots.  A Cleveland State victory at Detroit on Saturday would lock the Vikings as well as Robert Morris into the field.

ATLANTIC 10

Top seed: The A-10 is one of two leagues (along with the Coastal Athletic Association) that still has a pair of undefeated teams in conference play. Saint Joseph’s (9-3, 4-0) visits Richmond (9-4, 4-0) on Saturday to settle the regular season title.

Who’s in: In addition to Saint Joseph’s and Richmond, High Point (8-6, 2-2) and UMass (6-6, 2-2) have also clinched tournament berths and will meet Friday to decide the No. 3 seed. UMass is the predetermined host for the league tournament.

BIG EAST

Top seed: Denver (10-2, 4-0) has already clinched it by virtue of its victory over Georgetown, the only team within a game of the Pioneers.

Who’s in: The Hoyas (9-3, 3-1) are assured a spot in the semifinals and can seal the No. 2 seed with a victory over Villanova (8-5, 2-2). The Wildcats are in the field as well, since they can’t end up on the wrong end of a three-way tie for third. Providence (6-7, 2-2) can lock up the last spot with a victory over St. John’s (4-10, 1-3), but it could still get in on goal differential in common games if it loses by three or less and Villanova falls to Georgetown to create a three-team tie. A St. John’s victory coupled with a Villanova win vaults the Red Storm into the tournament and ends the Friars’ season.

BIG TEN

Top seed: Johns Hopkins (10-3, 5-0) clinched the outright regular season title with a 7-5 defeat of Maryland on Saturday. Both the Blue Jays and the Terrapins (8-4, 3-2) earned byes into the semifinals of the tournament, which begins Saturday. The final two rounds will be played at Ohio State.

Who’s in: Everybody, which makes the Big Ten the only league to include every program in its tournament. Fourth-seeded Michigan (7-6, 2-3) welcomes fifth-seeded Ohio State (6-8, 1-4) into Ann Arbor on Saturday, while sixth-seeded Rutgers (7-6, 1-4) visits third-seeded Penn State (9-3, 3-2) later in the afternoon.

CAA

Top seed: Towson (10-3, 6-0) and Delaware (8-3, 6-0) have clinched the top two spots, and the winner of their meeting at Delaware on Friday will claim the No. 1 seed. The Blue Hens are ineligible to host the conference tournament since they’ve announced they’re leaving the league in all sports in the summer of 2025, so Towson will be the site of next week’s semifinals and title game regardless of Friday’s outcome.

Who’s in: Fairfield (7-6, 4-2) has locked up the No. 3 seed. There’s a four-team logjam at 2-4, with all of them requiring a victory plus help to snag the No. 4 seed. Drexel needs a Stony Brook loss to Hofstra; Monmouth requires a Hofstra loss; Stony Brook’s chances hinge on Monmouth losing to Drexel; and Hofstra’s season can’t continue without a Drexel loss.

IVY LEAGUE

Top seed: Cornell (8-4, 4-1) is well-positioned to bring the Ivy tournament to Ithaca. The Big Red needs either a victory over Dartmouth (3-9, 0-5) or for Yale (11-2, 4-1) to lose to Princeton (8-4, 3-2) to lock up the top seed. A Cornell loss coupled with a Yale victory means the Bulldogs will be the No. 1 seed.

Who’s in: Cornell, Yale and Penn (8-5, 4-2) have clinched tournament berths. Princeton will take the fourth spot with a win or a Brown (3-9, 2-3) loss to Harvard (7-5, 1-4). But a Princeton loss opens the door for Brown to get in with a victory over the Crimson.

MAAC

Top seed: Sacred Heart (11-4, 9-0) won the regular season by two games over LIU (10-3, 7-2) and both get quarterfinal byes. But neither will play at home in the league tournament, because the MAAC permits only full members to have hosting duties.

Who’s in: Third-seeded Manhattan (6-8, 6-3) welcomes sixth-seeded Quinnipiac (9-4, 5-4) to Gaelic Park, while fourth-seeded Marist (8-6, 5-4) takes on fifth-seeded Siena (7-7, 5-4) in Poughkeepsie, N.Y. All those schools are full MAAC members, so the best remaining seed of the bunch will be the site of the final two rounds.