Bracketology: Villanova In, Richmond Out in Latest Women's Bracket Projection

Every year the question pops up: “Is the RPI good enough to be used as an objective metric?” Last year, one team certainly disagreed (hello, Arizona State). And this year, we may very well be discussing the case of Richmond.

The Spiders have a signature win over Virginia, as well as a notable victory over a possible NCAA tournament team in Liberty. Richmond’s biggest blemish isn’t a bevy of blowout losses (it has three), but its RPI.

Despite winning six of seven, which started with a 16-15 double-overtime shocker over Virginia, Richmond continues to slip in the RPI, this week falling to No. 30. That number doesn’t take anything away from the team’s accomplishments, but in terms of an objective criteria, it is foreboding. One only must ask the Sun Devils how slighted they felt despite numerous wins over NCAA-caliber squads but to be left out due to a No. 27 RPI.

Yale, Army on bubble precipice

It was not a kind weekend to bubble dwellers. Richmond’s RPI fell, Yale suffered a significant loss against Harvard and Army was blown out by Loyola.  

Late April begins must-win season for many teams vying for the final spots in the field. For Yale, beating Cornell and Columbia to cap the regular season is mandatory to be included in the field of 29.

For Army, Saturday’s game against rival Navy carries the same type of weight. The two teams are on the bubble, and Navy has a nicer resume. The Black Knights do not carry a win over a top 30 team yet this season, and at some point, a high RPI can carry only so much.

Big Ten shakeup sets up exciting final regular season week

A slate of interesting results in the Big Ten have created an important week of games before the conference tournament.

Penn State soundly defeated Maryland to all but sew up its at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, which also dropped the Terrapins a spot in our seedings this week. Johns Hopkins (6-7) took care of Michigan to announce its presence on the bubble. Tuesday’s game against Towson, as well as Saturday’s home contest against Penn State, serve as must-wins to gain tournament eligibility.

Speaking of tournament eligibility, Rutgers (6-7) appears interested in joining the conversation. A midweek upset of Stony Brook coupled with a road win at Vermont has breathed life into Rutgers’ postseason hopes. Thursday’s conference finale against Ohio State and Sunday’s tilt against James Madison provide a lifeline.

Notes: Records against the top 10, top 11-20, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (according to LaxReference.com, as of Monday, April 10), not human polls. First-place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI. For 2023, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (15)

Syracuse ACC

Northwestern Big Ten

James Madison AAC

Denver Big East

Loyola Patriot

Stony Brook CAA

UMass A-10

Penn Ivy

Liberty ASUN

USC Pac-12

Albany America East

Fairfield MAAC

Mercer Big South

Central Michigan MAC

Sacred Heart NEC

Syracuse was up to the task in taking down North Carolina on its home field. At this point, even a loss in the ACC tournament won’t prevent the Orange from getting the top seed … Northwestern has a 14-game winning streak heading into the final week of the regular season … James Madison faces a hungry Rutgers squad this weekend on the road.

Denver handled the Stanford-Xavier double with ease. A Senior Day game against Georgetown awaits … Loyola took care of its business in the Patriot League to bolster its hosting hopes … Speaking of hosting hopes, Stony Brook’s might have vanished with its loss to Rutgers.

UMass has been plodding along in the Atlantic 10 and faces a resurgent Saint Joseph’s side on the road … Penn remained undefeated in conference play by beating Cornell by four. A midweek win over Princeton clinches at least a share of the Ivy League regular season title … Liberty was unable to take down the Gators and now sets its sights on the rest of the ASUN with Kennesaw State and Lindenwood visiting Lynchburg.

USC can clinch the Pac-12’s top seed with a win at Arizona State on Friday … Albany is undefeated in America East play and holds the tiebreaker over second-place Binghamton after a five-goal triumph … Fairfield dropped its first MAAC game of the season to Niagara. The Stags hold a slightly superior RPI over Siena, the league’s other 1-loss team.

Mercer has a seven-game winning streak entering Saturday’s clash with Radford … Central Michigan is the MAC’s lone undefeated squad … Sacred Heart is a new entrant to this week’s field after beating Wagner, which was unbeaten in NEC play.

AT-LARGE (20 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

North Carolina ACC

Maryland Big Ten

Boston College ACC

Florida AAC

Notre Dame ACC

Virginia ACC

UConn Big East

Marquette Big East

Army Patriot

Michigan Big Ten

Drexel CAA

Penn State Big Ten

Villanova Big East

Yale Ivy

Navy Patriot

Towson CAA

Clemson ACC

Richmond A-10

Stanford Pac-12

East Carolina AAC

North Carolina holds steady at No. 4 after its narrow loss to Syracuse … Maryland fumbled its chance at Penn State and has now jeopardized the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament … Boston College jumped another spot due to Maryland’s loss and a dominant 12-goal win over Virginia. ...

Florida keeps ticking and remains No. 8 in this week’s field … Notre Dame won both its games in the Steel City against overmatched Pitt and Robert Morris … Virginia gave up 25 goals (!) to Boston College. ...

UConn was bested by Marquette on Saturday, in a game the Golden Eagles needed to solidify its profile … Army was covered above and needs a win over Navy. ... Michigan fell to Johns Hopkins and is idle until next weekend for the Big Ten quarterfinals … Drexel posted tight victories over Temple and Delaware to keep its at-large bid … Penn State held Maryland to its fewest goal total in 26 years in a 12-7 win, the program’s third in four meetings over the Terrapins. ...

Villanova enters this week’s field after defeating Georgetown for the first time in program history and checking in at No. 21 in the RPI … Yale slipped into 23rrd in the RPI in what may ultimately prove to be a bubble-bursting loss to Harvard … Navy gets its chief rival in a bubble-buster … Towson’s RPI continues to rise, now at No. 26. Tuesday’s game against Hopkins and Saturday’s against Stony Brook provide great opportunities for quality wins … Clemson is doing all it can do — beat the teams it’s supposed to, which is what the Tigers did against Virginia Tech … Richmond falling to 30th in the RPI was covered extensively above.

Princeton is hanging around. Wednesday night’s rivalry game at Penn could give the Tigers a chance to creep back into the at-large discussion … Stanford needs to win the Pac-12 title … At No. 34 in the RPI, East Carolina is too low to be considered for the at-large field without a quality win.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.

• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.

• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.

• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Syracuse, N.Y.

Penn State vs. UConn
Winner plays at (1) Syracuse (ACC)

Gainesville, Fla.

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (8) Florida
Notre Dame vs. Albany (AMERICA EAST)

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Central Michigan (MAC) at (4) North Carolina
UMass (A-10) vs. Villanova

Harrisonburg, Va.

Liberty (ASUN) at (5) James Madison (AMERICAN)
Virginia vs. Army

Evanston, Ill.

Marquette vs. Michigan
Winner plays at (2) Northwestern (BIG TEN)

College Park, Md.

Fairfield (MAAC) at (7) Maryland
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Penn (IVY)

Denver, Colo.

Drexel vs. USC (PAC-12)
Winner plays at (3) Denver (BIG EAST)

Newton, Mass.

Sacred Heart (NEC) at (7) Boston College
Stony Brook (CAA) vs. Yale

Last Four In: Drexel, Villanova, Yale, Army
Last Four Out: Richmond, Towson, Clemson, Navy, Princeton, Stanford
Moving In: Sacred Heart, Villanova
Moving Out: Richmond, Wagner
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (4), Big East (4), American Athletic (2), CAA (2), Ivy (2), Patriot League (2)