Grading the Committee: Significant Wins Trump All

Significant wins made all the difference Sunday night in the unveiling of the 29-team NCAA Division I women’s lacrosse championship field.

“Significant wins were important in our evaluation process,” said committee chair Samantha Eustace, head coach of Mercer. “Because there were so many upsets, it was not as clear as in years past and was lots of extra work for the committee.”

Northwestern and Boston College were obvious choices as the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds, but after that, how the committee would apply the selection criteria to seed the remaining 27 teams would prove vital.

The 2024 national committee is comprised of Eustace as chair, Suzette McQueen (executive senior associate director/SWA at Kent State), Bonnie Rosen (Temple coach), Jessica Grasso (deputy commissioner at the MAAC), Cathy Reese (Maryland coach), and Lindsey Thomas (director of women's athletics/associate AD of operations at Florida).

Ultimately, piling up big wins mattered most up and down the line. For example, No. 3 seed Syracuse boasted five wins over top 20 competition, while Maryland’s seven top 20 wins overcame lackluster home losses and a 2-3 record in April to earn a somewhat surprising No. 4 seed.

Virginia also racked up the top 20 wins (six) to gain the No. 5 seed, which was five spots higher than their RPI of 10.

From there, No. 6 seed Yale (four), No. 7 seed Notre Dame (three) and No. 8 seed Penn (five) got the right mix of top wins and a solid RPI.

“When we are looking at the teams, Maryland had a lot of significant wins,” Eustace said. “Those were something that were important to the committee — having those wins.”

Later, Eustace added that Virginia also got a boost by beating Boston College and Notre Dame to solidify their holding of the fifth seed.

“We spend a lot of time going through the criteria as they’re written,” Eustace said. “We take care that we’re paying attention and putting together the best bracket we can.”

Eight-loss Duke gets in

In the theme of significant wins, one team received a major benefit — Duke.

The Blue Devils beat Virginia 15-10 on March 30 but went 2-3 the rest of the way, including a 12-goal loss to Notre Dame, a five-goal loss to North Carolina and a 14-goal drubbing by Boston College.

“For Duke, their win over UVA was what put them in,” Eustace said. “It’s always really tough when you get to the last couple of teams, and they don’t play each other or have common opponents.”

Duke, the 31st team in the RPI, jumped several teams ahead of it including two that it lost to — Navy and Clemson, both of which were omitted from the field.

Colorado left out

The team that missed out was Colorado. The decision came down to significant wins.

“They didn’t have any wins over a top 20 program,” Eustace said.

Mind you, Colorado had as many wins over NCAA tournament teams as Duke. The Buffs beat Penn State on the road. Moreover, Colorado’s RPI was seven spots higher than the Blue Devils.

Other teams passed over by the committee according to the RPI were No. 22 Navy, No. 23 Brown, No. 25 UMass, No. 27 Clemson, No. 28 USC and No. 29 Harvard.

The MAAC is a two-bid league

One of the most surprising results on Sunday was that Niagara knocked off No. 1 seed Fairfield in the MAAC championship game. The Purple Eagles earned the automatic qualifier, while the Stags had to hope their resume was good enough to get in.

This will be the first time in league history that the MAAC has multiple teams playing in the NCAA tournament.

History makers

The 2024 bracket is full of first timers.

The Purple Eagles will be making their debut, joined by America East champion Binghamton, ASUN champion Coastal Carolina and NEC champion LIU.

In a conference championship weekend when the surprises came late, each of the teams listed above had to beat the No. 1 seeds on their home fields to make the NCAA tournament. 

THE FAVORITE

Boston College

It would be too obvious to pick Northwestern. The Wildcats are defending champions and the No. 1 seed.

So, we will go with Boston College. The Eagles have been on a tear of late, whereas Northwestern has shown some cracks in a loss to Penn State and near misses against Johns Hopkins and Penn State in the Big Ten tournament. Plus, that second-round matchup against Denver or Stanford could prove tricky.

Boston College has an easier route, as it’ll face Princeton or Drexel in round two, while hosting a quarterfinal game against the winner of the Notre Dame pod. And if history is indication, we can pencil the Eagles into the championship game for the seventh straight tournament.

THE DARK HORSE

Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish have a very difficult road, but having been the only team to beat both Northwestern and Boston College this season is as good a reason to think the No. 7 seed could win the whole thing.

LAST TEAMS IN

According to Eustace: Duke, Fairfield, Drexel and James Madison

Duke just got in and Fairfield almost fell out after losing to Niagara. Drexel and JMU seemed firmly in, but still listed as the final four in.

FIRST TEAMS OUT

According to Eustace: Colorado, Navy, Harvard and Clemson

Colorado was clearly team No. 30 and Navy wasn’t far behind. After that, there was a large gulf to get to Harvard or Clemson.

Brown wasn’t included as a first four out because it didn’t reach the Ivy League tournament. The Bears had a solid profile, too. A gentle reminder to conferences — let your teams play! The ACC and Big Ten let everyone in, and their membership benefits because of it.

BIGGEST SNUB

Colorado

We covered it above. The Buffaloes should feel slighted. Their overall resume was better than Duke’s, but one criterion won out. It’s a shame, as the Pac-12 will end its time as a one-bid league.

It must be noted that far too many western teams are in the biggest snub discussion. Last year, it was undefeated Denver as a No. 5 seed, and in 2022, it was Arizona State being left out despite more significant wins than the teams that were let in. 

TOUGHEST DRAW, PART I

Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish garnered the No. 7 seed but will get no favors in reaching championship weekend. Almost certainly awaiting them in the second round is Michigan, which was the first team not to be seeded. Even if Notre Dame can get past Michigan, a potential trip to Boston College would be required.

TOUGHEST DRAW, PART II

Virginia

The Cavaliers should get past LIU in round one, but playing a hot Florida team or North Carolina in the second round seems perilous. Nevertheless, if they get to the quarterfinals, they will match up well with whomever comes out of the Maryland pod.

UPSET ALERT, PART I

Stony Brook over Syracuse in the second round. This will be a fantastic matchup.

UPSET ALERT, PART II

Johns Hopkins over Yale in the second round. The Blue Jays righted the ship in a win over Michigan and a near upset of Northwestern.

UPSET ALERT, PART III

Penn State over Maryland in round two. If the Nittany Lions can beat JMU, they seem to have the mojo to take out Maryland. The Terrapins have struggled at home, and Penn State plays its best against the best competition.

REVENGE FUEL, PART I

Syracuse must embrace this task to reach the quarterfinals: Beat Stony Brook.

REVENGE FUEL, PART II

Florida couldn’t beat North Carolina earlier this season. The Gators will be excited for this one.

REVENGE FUEL, PART III

If Loyola gets past Duke, a second-round matchup with Penn will be juicy. The Greyhounds didn’t play well in a regular-season matchup with the Quakers and will be excited for a second shot.

DON’T BE SURPRISED IF …

Chaos continues and an unseeded team reaches the semifinals. We haven’t had an unseeded semifinalist since 2017 when Navy and BC met in Foxborough. And the year before that, Penn State pulled the same trick. 

NAMES TO KNOW

Chase Boyle, M, Loyola: Boyle has been incredible this season with 80 goals and almost 200 draw controls. She’s also chipped in defensively with 16 caused turnovers.

Katie Goodale, D, Syracuse: A lockdown defender who grabbed 38 ground balls, 43 draws and caused 43 turnovers.

Ellie Masera, M, Stony Brook: Another high-scoring middie who excels at the draw, Masera has totaled 104 points and 136 draw controls.

Erin O’Grady, G, Michigan: One of the best netminders in the country, O’Grady has the best save percentage in the nation (58%) and best goals-against average (6.68). If Michigan is to advance in the tournament, O’Grady’s top play will be required.

Izzy Rohr, D, Penn: The two-time unanimous Ivy League Defender of the Year, Rohr led Penn’s stout defense with 29 caused turnovers.

Izzy Scane, A, Northwestern: Still producing ridiculous numbers, Scane has now put up back-to-back healthy seasons. Let’s enjoy her as she tries to lead her team to back-to-back titles.

Belle Smith, M, Boston College: The ACC Midfielder of the Year has done a bit of everything in leading the Eagles — 37 goals, 14 assists, 39 draw controls and a team-high 15 caused turnovers.

Fallon Vaughn, M, Yale: The unanimous Ivy League Midfielder of the Year, she helped lead the Bulldogs to their first Ivy title in over 20 years. The do-everything midfielder was second on the team in points (49) while tallying a team-best 23 caused turnovers, snagging 48 draw controls and 27 ground balls.

YOU’LL HEAR A LOT ABOUT ...

Duke’s inclusion, potential upsets and rematches. It’s been a remarkable year in women’s lacrosse, and this might be one of the more fun and chaotic tournaments we’ll see.

PREDICTIONS

Northwestern and Boston College hold serve to reach championship weekend, while an unseeded team will reach the semifinals, and it will likely come from the 4-5 quadrant.

Best guess at a final four is Northwestern, Florida, Syracuse and Boston College with BC getting revenge over the Wildcats to lift the trophy.

GRADING THE COMMITTEE

B+

The NCAA committee mostly got it right.

Every committee is different, and this year’s leaned hard in one area of criteria — and that was significant wins.

No one will quibble with the seedings of Northwestern, Boston College or Syracuse, but it’s fair to question why Yale and Penn were dropped to Nos. 6 and 8, while Maryland with some suspect losses remained at No 4.

Additionally, Denver being sent to Northwestern seems unfair to both teams. The Pioneers were 14th in the S-Curve and the committee is bound to keep the tournament as inexpensive as possible. Northwestern should be playing a true 16-17 opponent in round two, as opposed to a team that had a sniff of the seeding discussion.

“We spent two hours trying to get everything done right as much as possible. We try to protect our top seeds,” Eustace said about the NCAA’s budgetary support of the women’s lacrosse tournament and bracket integrity. “We’re trying to push the NCAA to get more flights, to seed [the bracket] one through 16.”

Much of the bracketing worked out in the committee’s favor as it pertained to geography. There are only five flights (although they’re also part of the reason why there aren’t six — read: Colorado).

The pods are well balanced. The one that is overloaded is Virginia’s, but bussing North Carolina was a constraint the committee had to deal with. In a true bracket, UNC is flying somewhere as opposed to being slotted where the approximate No. 21 team should go.

It should be noted, last year’s bracket could have been accomplished with five flights as well, but the committee was afforded six. So why the change? That wasn’t exactly clear on Sunday night, as a sixth flight would’ve afforded the committee a better chance to improve bracket integrity.

The biggest comments come at the bottom of the at-large discussion. Fairfield was likely not in danger of falling out, and it would’ve been criminal to keep the Stags out.

Nevertheless, adding a sixth ACC team instead of a second Pac-12 team doesn’t engender warm feelings. Eight-loss Duke got in because of one brilliant afternoon and leapfrogged a several teams (including ones it lost to) while a more consistent Colorado got left out.

BRACKETOLOGY BREAKDOWN

We went 28-for-29 this year and had all eight seeds selected, although not in the correct order (we hit on Northwestern, Boston College and Notre Dame at No. 7). We’ll continue to strive for perfection in this fun project.

As for placements, we correctly predicted Stanford in Evanston, Binghamton in Philadelphia, Niagara in Syracuse, Mercer, Michigan and Coastal Carolina in South Bend, Princeton at Boston College and Robert Morris playing the No. 4 seed.