NCAA Bracketology: Bid Thief Alert Levels

The season of chaos continued as conference tournament season kicked off. 

Upsets galore have led to an odd scenario in which many teams are home awaiting their fates, while others try to control their destinies.

Boston College the biggest riser

The Eagles (16-3) won their second straight ACC title and moved to No. 2 in the RPI. It seems almost inconceivable that Boston College would drop below No. 2, and there’s a small chance to rise to No. 1 should Northwestern falter to Johns Hopkins in the Big Ten semifinals.

The idle teams

The ACC is used to being off this week while the rest of the country plays for their respective automatic qualifiers. An unusual situation has presented itself in which not only are ACC teams idle, but Maryland and Michigan aren’t participating either. That means five of the top 10 RPI teams are not in action.

The Terps lost to Rutgers at home in the Big Ten quarterfinals and fell to No. 5 in the RPI, while Michigan fell to a Johns Hopkins team in search of a big victory. Maryland is slotted in as the No. 5 seed in this week’s projection, while the Wolverines drop to No. 6.

The fight for the final two seeds

These teams — listed by their RPI rank 7-12 — Johns Hopkins, Yale, Virginia, Notre Dame, Loyola and Stony Brook all have legitimate claims for hosting rights, but only two of those will get the call on Sunday.

We don’t expect the committee to go exactly in that order, but we don’t expect them to stray too far away either. In fact, when taking in all the relevant selection criteria, we never get more than four spots higher or lower from a team’s RPI when ranking them.

Virginia and Notre Dame might have the greatest claim to the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds. UVA is 6-3 against RPI top 20 teams, while Notre Dame is 3-3, including two wins over the top two RPI squads. Yale is No. 8 in the RPI and is 3-2 against the RPI top 20, but only one of those wins is against a team ranked higher than 15. UVA and Notre Dame both have two such victories.

As for the other teams under consideration, all have one win against teams who are likely to be considered for seeding. The detraction comes into play when records against common opponents and head-to-head results are questioned.

Persistent bubble questions remain

We continue to touch on the bubble, and not much has changed. Approximately two, possibly three, at-large spots remain. Many teams haven’t made a compelling case to be in, such as Navy, Duke or Colorado, due to either low RPI (Duke, 30), lack of significant wins (Navy) or a small combination of both (Colorado).

Drexel is in a solid, but not locked-in position as RPI No. 20 and wins over both Penn State and Navy.

Then there are Ivy League teams like Harvard and Brown that have seen their RPIs fluctuate from week to week. Harvard’s loss to Princeton dropped the Crimson to No. 28. That likely sunk Harvard’s chances, unless it can pull off an upset of Penn. Brown’s RPI rose to 21 after beating Cornell, but the Bears didn’t qualify for the Ivy League tournament. What Brown has is two wins over projected NCAA teams — UMass and Albany.

Then there’s USC. The Trojans are No. 24 in the RPI, clearly the second-best team in the Pac-12, but have few significant wins — but no bad losses either. A poor showing in the Pac-12 tournament would spell trouble. Even then, USC might have to win the Pac-12 tournament.

BID THIEF ALERT LEVELS

There are some bid thieves lurking out there that could bump our bubble dwellers.

American Athletic (Nashville, Tenn.)

Potential thieves: Temple, Vanderbilt
Threat level: Low

It would be a massive surprise if Temple or Vanderbilt win two games this weekend to prevent James Madison or Florida from winning The American’s AQ. Nevertheless, a bid would surely be stolen.

Big East (Cincinnati, Ohio)

Potential thieves: Georgetown, UConn
Threat level: Medium

Denver waltzed to a perfect record in league play but has struggled away from home at times, as evidenced by a one-goal win over Georgetown and a comeback win at Villanova. The tournament is at neutral site Xavier.

Big Ten (Evanston, Ill.)

Potential thief: Rutgers
Threat level: Low-to-medium

Rutgers gets Penn State, which only won by a goal in the regular-season meeting. Winning the semifinal is not the hard part, but the final would be. Either No. 1 Northwestern or a Johns Hopkins team on the verge of its first Big Ten title would be waiting in the championship game.

Ivy League (New Haven, Conn.)

Potential thief: Harvard
Threat level: Medium

The fact that five of seven teams in a single league are in consideration for spots in the NCAA tournament shows its strength. No. 4 seed Harvard has everything to play for. It needs to beat rival Yale and then Penn or Princeton to grab that automatic qualifier.

MAAC (Fairfield, Conn.)

Potential thieves: Niagara, Siena, Mount St. Mary’s
Threat level: Low

The threat level is low for two reasons: One: Fairfield is so clearly the best team in the league and hosting the tournament, and two: if Fairfield falls, will the selection committee award them an at-large bid? It’s possible; the Stags have a victory over Drexel, but not much else.

Pac-12 (Los Angeles, Calif.)

Potential thieves: USC, Colorado
Threat level: High

One team — Stanford — has risen above the rest, then USC and Colorado have RPIs in the 20s, but few significant victories to back things up. There is clearly a scenario in which Stanford wins and the Pac-12 is a one-bid league. There’s also a scenario in which any of the other five teams win, and Stanford gets in, too, making the Pac-12 a two-bid league in its final year. And then there’s the unlikely, but possible, scenario in which Stanford loses and doesn’t get in at all.

Patriot League (Baltimore, Md.)

Potential thieves: Navy, Holy Cross
Threat level: Medium

Loyola is in and has plenty to play for as resounding wins and the right mix of results could get a hosting bid. Navy and Holy Cross would love another crack at the Greyhounds. Can the Mids summon similar good vibes to 2017 and upset Loyola on its home field once again? If so, another at-large bid is off the board.

Notes: Records against the RPI top 10, top 11-20, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Tuesday, April 30), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest rated team in the RPI. For the 2024 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

* = automatic qualifier already secured

Northwestern is well rested and 7-1 against the RPI top 20 as it hosts the Big Ten tournament this week … Boston College is the ACC champion once again. The Eagles own four wins against RPI top 10 competition … Yale would get a good crack at hosting should it win the Ivy League tournament.

Loyola’s RPI dipped to 11th ahead of the Patriot League tournament … Stony Brook is the heavy favorite to take the CAA but likely didn’t do enough to earn the right to host … Fairfield hosts the MAAC tournament starting with Mount St. Mary’s.

Denver had fun in the snow this weekend and now travels to Cincinnati for the Big East tournament … Stanford is the No. 1 seed in the final Pac-12 tournament, which is being hosted in the LA Coliseum … Florida is the No. 1 seed in The American tournament and will face host No. 4 seed Vanderbilt on Thursday.

UMass completed the regular-season sweep of the Atlantic 10 with a narrow escape against Richmond. The Minutewomen await the winner of Saint Joseph’s and VCU … Albany is the host of the America East tournament beginning with UMass Lowell on Friday … Mercer hosts Big South play after a perfect conference regular season.

Jacksonville got past Liberty to secure the No. 1 seed in the ASUN … Sacred Heart hosts the NEC tournament as the No. 1 seed … The bad news for Central Michigan is that it lost to Kent State in its regular-season finale. The good news is that Kent State did not qualify for the MAC tournament. 

AT LARGE  (20 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Syracuse was unable to solve the Boston College puzzle this season, but the Orange are positioned for a top four seed thanks to its five wins over RPI top 20 teams and No. 1 strength of schedule … Penn can climb into the top three should it win the Ivy League tournament … Maryland and Michigan are home this weekend and likely can only move up if Penn loses to Harvard in the Ivy semifinals.

Johns Hopkins finally got its signature win this season. It’s likely not enough to gain a seed yet, but a win over Northwestern would do it … Virginia’s wins over Boston College and Notre Dame, along with four other top 20 wins, will likely garner a seed line. The Fighting Irish have wins over the top two RPI teams in the country, but a weaker than expected RPI (10) could deter the committee from granting a seed.

Princeton is solidly in the field with a No. 15 RPI and a win over Penn, but another win over the Quakers would be nice … North Carolina finds itself in an odd spot — it’s going to be traveling for the first weekend of the NCAA tournament … James Madison will also be traveling, but first the Dukes will want to avenge their loss to Florida.

Drexel has hung around the No. 20 RPI line for most of the season. Winning the CAA would take away what doubt remains about its at-large candidacy … Brown can’t improve its standing but will be cheering for chalk to win out this weekend … Penn State did the committee a favor by beating Ohio State and avoiding the conversation about whether a team that has wins over three RPI top 10 teams should get in despite two losses against the No. 56 RPI team.

Navy must beat Holy Cross again and likely must beat Loyola to get in the tournament … USC is in this week’s projection solely on its RPI (24) and lack of significant losses. A trip to the Pac-12 final is the bare minimum for the Trojans … If Colorado gets two wins in the Pac-12 tournament, the Buffs might be a party crasher depending on how the numbers shake out. Three wins and they steal a bid.

Clemson’s numbers are solid (No. 27 RPI, No. 22 SOS), but no significant victories and a significant loss to Louisville keep the Tigers out … Harvard — see above … Holy Cross is another bid thief, but early season momentum has faltered in league play. The Crusaders need to get to the Patriot final to have a sniff at an at-large … Duke will test the committee’s criteria. The Blue Devils have a poor RPI (30), a great SOS (8) and one significant win (Virginia) but a bevy of ugly losses (five losses by seven-plus goals, seven losses by four-plus goals) to good teams and a 1-3 record down the stretch. Is one moment of brilliance enough?

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Evanston, Ill.

James Madison vs. Stanford (PAC-12)
Winner plays at (1) Northwestern (BIG TEN)

Notre Dame, Ind.

Jacksonville (ASUN) at (8) Notre Dame
Denver (BIG EAST) vs. Mercer (BIG SOUTH)

Philadelphia, Pa.

Sacred Heart (NEC) at (4) Penn
Johns Hopkins vs. Brown

College Park, Md.

Albany (AMERICA EAST) at (5) Maryland
Yale (IVY) vs. UMass (ATLANTIC 10)

Newton, Mass.

Princeton vs. Fairfield (MAAC)
Winner plays at (2) Boston College (ACC)

Charlottesville, Va.

Drexel at (7) Virginia
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. North Carolina

Syracuse, N.Y.

Stony Brook (CAA) vs. Penn State
Winner plays at (3) Syracuse

Ann Arbor, Mich.

Central Michigan (MAC) at (6) Michigan
Florida (AMERICAN) vs. USC

Last Four In: Penn State, Drexel, Brown, USC
First Four Out: Navy, Colorado, Duke, Harvard
Moving In: Brown
Moving Out: Harvard
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (5), Ivy (4), AAC (2), CAA (2), Pac-12 (2)