NCAA Bracketology: The Very Chalky Seed Line

In a season full of parity, one objective criteria has stood out: the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI).

During last week’s Penn State-Johns Hopkins game, the NCAA selection committee released its top 10, which nearly mirrored the RPI at the time. With that in mind, and by judging past committee cycles, the RPI will have a strong determining factor on who gets slotted where.

Expect chalk at the top.

Our projections this week look similar to that of the current RPI: All top eight teams in the RPI occupy our eight seeds. The lone change is swapping Boston College for the No. 7 seed over Yale, which the Eagles beat. Yale also dropped a neutral-site game to Denver on Monday.

Elsewhere, Northwestern and Maryland hold the top two spots, followed by Penn, Syracuse, Michigan and Virginia. Obviously, this week’s ACC tournament can see much of this shuffle before all the remaining conference tournaments kick off.

As of now, there are nine deserving teams that could entertain a hosting bid. Notre Dame, which we’ve previously projected as high as fourth and is a top eight team in the human polls, falls just short in the objective measures. The Irish are 10th in RPI and tied for 16th in SOS with Yale. That SOS is the lowest among the top 10 RPI teams.

Nevertheless, the Irish could play themselves back into this conversation with an ACC semifinal win over Boston College, thus sweeping the season series. A loss would create an interesting dilemma for the committee.

If there’s chalk up top, will chalk prevail on the bubble?

A more confusing situation exists for the final three at-large spaces.

It’s a continual conversation every week, but what will the committee do with a team like Duke (10-8), which has a poor RPI (30th), one very notable win (Virginia) and a string of really lopsided losses (last six losses have been by an average of 10.3 goals)? With no more games to play, Duke looks like it will be among the first teams left out.

Then there are teams like USC, Harvard, Brown and Navy, which have had solid seasons with few notable wins and fewer notable defeats. USC solidified its spot as the second-best team in the Pac-12, while Harvard punched its ticket to the Ivy League tournament, something Brown could not do. Then there’s Navy, which has beaten Duke and is the second-best team in the Patriot League, but it also lost to a mid-table team in Saint Joseph’s.

Expect RPI to factor in heavily, much like it has in past years when the committee is presented with conflicting results. Moreover, secondary criteria like late-season form could factor in as well. USC (20th, 4-2 in last 6) and Harvard (25th, 5-1 in last 6) get our nods this week, while Brown (21st, 3-3 in last 6), Navy (24th, 5-1 in last 6) and Duke (30th, 3-3 in last 6) are left out. 

Notes: Records against the RPI top 10, top 11-20, significant wins and significant losses (over 40th) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of games played through Wednesday, April 24), not human polls. First-place, NCAA tournament-eligible teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest rated team in the RPI. For the 2024 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS  (15)

Northwestern earned its bye as the top team in the Big Ten after a one-goal win over Michigan … Syracuse stumbled against BC but won Wednesday night’s quarterfinal against Louisville. Up next is a fired up Virginia side … Yale was beaten by Denver at a neutral site in Philadelphia on Monday. Regardless of Saturday’s result, the Bulldogs host the Ivy League tournament.

Loyola affirmed its dominance of the Patriot League by beating Holy Cross by 15 on Saturday … Stanford is making a rare April cross-country road trip to face Stony Brook today before returning home to face rival Cal on Saturday … Fairfield kept things rolling against Siena. The Stags are off this week, as they await their semifinal opponent on May 3.

Denver swept Villanova and Yale this past week to maintain that outside chance of hosting … Stony Brook sees Stanford today in its regular-season finale … Florida looks to cap a 15-game winning streak against Tempe on Saturday.

UMass heads to Richmond in what appeared to be a battle of the top two A-10 teams before Richmond’s surprising loss to rival VCU … Albany is back as the projected America East auto bid, holding the tiebreaker over Binghamton … Mercer will clinch another Big South regular-season crown by beating Radford.

Jacksonville regained its top perch in the ASUN by defeating Coastal Carolina … Sacred Heart has the No. 1 seed in the NEC tournament at 9-1 … Central Michigan can close out a perfect MAC regular season with a win at Kent State. 

AT LARGE  (22 TEAMS/14 SPOTS)

Maryland welcomes Rutgers on Saturday for a Big Ten quarterfinal … Penn has a tricky matchup against a desperate Dartmouth team that needs an upset to stay relevant in the at-large discussion … Déjà vu. Michigan lost by a goal to Northwestern. The Wolverines host Johns Hopkins in the Big Ten quarterfinals on Saturday.

Virginia will try to knock off the top-seeded Orange in the ACC semifinals on Friday … Boston College can almost lock up its bid to host by beating Notre Dame on Friday night in Charlotte. Conversely, the Irish’s case to host improves with a victory.

Princeton can lock up the No. 2 seed in the Ivy League tournament with a win over Harvard on Saturday … North Carolina couldn’t knock off Virginia in the ACC quarterfinals and will now wait to hear its name called on Selection Sunday … James Madison travels to rival Old Dominion on Saturday to close the regular season.

USC is the clear No. 2 in the Pac-12 after handling Colorado fairly easily last week … Brown doesn’t have a path to the Ivy League tournament, and its path to the NCAA tournament seems more limited by the day. First, it needs to beat Cornell on Saturday and hope for favorable results … Drexel can’t afford a slip up against Hofstra this weekend.

After a slow start, Penn State was dominant in its win over Johns Hopkins to clinch the Big Ten’s No. 2 seed. The Nittany Lions need to avenge their notable loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten quarterfinals … Navy’s RPI is within striking distance of an at-large, but Navy missing a signature victory … Harvard sneaks into this week’s bracket by virtue of qualifying for the Ivy League tournament. It’s a precarious spot on the bubble.

Clemson’s season effectively ended on Wednesday night in a loss to Notre Dame … Colorado and Holy Cross must win their respective conference tournaments to get in … At 10-8 and with an RPI of 30, is Duke’s win over Virginia enough to get the Devils in? This will be the toughest decision the committee has to make two Sundays from now.

Dartmouth and Temple have major clashes this weekend. Upsets by either could throw the bubble into chaos.

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top 8 teams to host first- and second-round games. The top 3 seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
• Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.
• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
• Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Evanston, Ill.

Florida (AMERICAN) vs. USC
Winner plays at (1) Northwestern (BIG TEN)

New Haven, Conn.

UMass (ATLANTIC 10) at (8) Yale (IVY)
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Harvard

Syracuse, N.Y.

Sacred Heart (NEC) at (4) Syracuse (ACC)
Stony Brook (CAA) vs. Fairfield (MAAC)

Ann Arbor, Mich.

Central Michigan (MAC) at (5) Michigan
Notre Dame vs. Jacksonville (ASUN)

College Park, Md.

Stanford (PAC-12) vs. North Carolina
Winner plays at (2) Maryland

Newton, Mass.

Albany (AMERICA EAST) at (7) Boston College
Denver (BIG EAST) vs. Drexel

Philadelphia, Pa.

Princeton vs. Penn State
Winner plays at (3) Penn

Charlottesville, Va.

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (6) Virginia
Johns Hopkins vs. James Madison

Last Four In: James Madison, Drexel, USC, Harvard
First Four Out: Brown, Navy, Duke, Colorado
Moving In: Jacksonville, Albany, Harvard
Moving Out: Coastal Carolina, UMBC, Brown
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (5), Ivy League (4), AAC (2), CAA (2), Pac-12 (2)