9. PENN
2022 record: 11-5 (3-3 Ivy)
Last seen: Coming within a game of its first semifinal NCAA appearance since 1988, only to drop an 11-9 decision to Rutgers in the quarterfinals.
Initial forecast: No one was more comfortable in tight games than the Quakers, whose first 11 contests were decided by a combined 21 goals and later won a first-round NCAA tournament game against Richmond in overtime. The bulk of that team returns, led by midfielder Sam Handley (36 goals, 37 assists). The veteran has many strengths, but perhaps the most impressive is his opportunism and willingness to draw attention to set up teammates. Dylan Gergar (52 goals, 17 assists) was chief among them, but Penn had eight players score at least 10 times last spring. The Quakers have knocked on the door of a semifinal appearance in their last two full seasons and should again contend to push well into May. Among the handful of key departing pieces: Goalie Patrick Burkinshaw (.566 save percentage) and Duke-bound faceoff man Jamie Zusi (.545 faceoff percentage). Don’t underestimate Penn’s ability to develop in-house answers; Zusi had played one college game prior to 2022 and was a stout presence as a senior last season.
8. DUKE
2022 record: 11-6 (3-3 Atlantic Coast)
Last seen: Surrendering the last six goals in a 16-14 loss at Notre Dame, a cap to an erratic season in which the Blue Devils never won more than three in a row and missed the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2006.
Initial forecast: There’s no questioning the Blue Devils’ high-end talent. Yet the last two years have featured some puzzling issues — a veritable all-star team that never felt like it fit right even as it piled up close victories in 2021, and last year’s habit of almost taking a quarter or two off at just the wrong time. The popular theory might be that Duke played its way out of the postseason when it wasted a five-goal second-half lead at Notre Dame in early May, but its bigger issues were losing to a 4-10 Syracuse team and spotting a .500 Loyola bunch a 10-2 halftime advantage. On its best days, Duke was about as strong as anyone in the country not named Maryland — just ask Virginia, which was on the wrong end of a 17-8 drubbing. The offensive nucleus — Brennan O’Neill (53 goals, 21 assists), Dyson Williams (43 goals, nine assists) and Andrew McAdorey (23 goals, 16 assists) — is imposing, Jake Naso (.562) is an asset at the X and a defense led by Kenny Brower and Tyler Carpenter authored some great moments. Now, can it be cohesive and consistent over a full year? And who takes over for graduated goalie Mike Adler? That isn’t quite as holistic a question, yet still an important one for the Blue Devils to sort out prior to February.