Both Denver and Jacksonville popped into this week’s USA Lacrosse Magazine bracket projection after collecting vital victories over the weekend.
Now for the bad news: This is as good as it will get for either team this month.
Go ahead and credit the impact of schedule strength on how the RPI works. Both the Pioneers (who earned a victory at Villanova on Saturday) and the Dolphins (winners over Richmond to take over sole possession of first place in the Southern Conference) will get little mathematical help from their remaining regular-season opponents.
Jacksonville (10-2) still has VMI, Hampton and Mercer to come. Those three teams are a combined 7-23, and since opponents’ record accounts for half of the RPI formula, the Dolphins’ profile is about to get weaker even if they obliterate all three teams.
Denver’s situation might be dicier, since it finds itself in the hunt for an at-large berth but could lose ground even without losing over the next three weeks. The Pioneers close the regular season against St. John’s, Providence and Marquette. Those three are a combined 11-21, and none sit in the top half of the RPI rankings.
The bottom line for both teams: As good as they are, their postseason hopes are likely to come down to how they fare in their conference tournaments early next month.
AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (10)
|
|
W-L |
RPI |
T5 |
T10 |
T20 |
Notable Losses (25+) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Maryland |
10-0 |
1 |
2-0 |
3-0 |
4-0 |
--- |
|
Princeton |
8-2 |
2 |
1-2 |
3-2 |
5-2 |
--- |
|
Georgetown |
9-1 |
3 |
0-1 |
1-1 |
5-1 |
--- |
|
Boston U |
8-3 |
14 |
0-2 |
0-3 |
1-3 |
--- |
|
Saint Joseph's |
9-2 |
18 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
Delaware (35), at Drexel (37) |
|
Jacksonville |
10-2 |
19 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
3-1 |
--- |
|
Utah |
6-3 |
21 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
1-2 |
at UMBC (51) |
|
Towson |
5-6 |
28 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-6 |
--- |
|
St. Bonaventure |
8-2 |
32 |
0-0 |
0-0 |
0-2 |
--- |
|
Binghamton |
4-5 |
41 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
at Bucknell (30), Marist (45), Fairfield (47) |
Maryland now has as many top-10 victories as anyone after smashing Rutgers on Sunday night to take the outright lead in the Big Ten. There’s plenty that can be argued at this point, but it’s clear the Terrapins would be the No. 1 seed right now. … Princeton gets the nod as the Ivy League’s AQ by virtue of having the best RPI of the four teams tied atop the conference in the loss column. …
Georgetown’s average margin of victory in five games since losing to Princeton: 7.2. That includes an eight-goal rout of Denver and a 10-goal pounding of Providence — both on the road — to start Big East play. … Boston University lost twice last week, but both were to Ivy League powers (Princeton and Yale). The Terriers are tied for the Patriot League lead with Lehigh; they’ll meet April 23 at Lehigh. …
Saint Joseph’s took the outright lead in the Northeast Conference with an 11-10 defeat of Bryant on Saturday. The Hawks get another NEC contender next week when they visit LIU. … Jacksonville will clinch the top seed in the Southern Conference tournament with a sweep of VMI and Hampton this weekend and a Mercer loss at Richmond. …
Utah welcomes Robert Morris to Salt Lake City on Saturday, with the winner assured the outright lead in the Atlantic Sun (and a place in this exercise next week) with two games to go. … With victories over Drexel and UMass, Towson is the only CAA team unbeaten in league play. The Tigers visit Delaware on Saturday. …
Metro Atlantic leader St. Bonaventure has won six in a row, the second-longest winning streak in Division I behind Maryland (10). … Binghamton and Vermont, both undefeated in the America East, are now two games clear in the loss column of everyone else eligible to participate in the league tournament.
AT-LARGE (17 TEAMS/8 SLOTS)
|
|
W-L |
RPI |
T5 |
T10 |
T20 |
Notable Losses (25+) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Yale |
7-2 |
4 |
1-0 |
2-1 |
4-1 |
at Penn State (29) |
|
Virginia |
8-2 |
5 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
4-2 |
--- |
|
Cornell |
9-1 |
6 |
1-0 |
3-1 |
3-1 |
--- |
|
Rutgers |
10-2 |
7 |
0-1 |
1-2 |
2-2 |
--- |
|
Penn |
4-4 |
8 |
0-3 |
1-3 |
2-4 |
--- |
|
Harvard |
7-2 |
9 |
0-0 |
0-2 |
2-2 |
--- |
|
Ohio State |
8-3 |
10 |
0-0 |
1-2 |
4-3 |
--- |
|
Denver |
6-5 |
11 |
0-2 |
1-2 |
1-5 |
--- |
|
Notre Dame |
4-4 |
12 |
0-3 |
0-4 |
1-4 |
--- |
|
North Carolina |
7-4 |
13 |
0-2 |
0-3 |
4-4 |
--- |
|
Richmond |
6-4 |
15 |
1-1 |
1-1 |
1-4 |
--- |
|
Duke |
9-5 |
16 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
3-3 |
at Syracuse (31) |
|
Brown |
6-4 |
17 |
0-1 |
1-2 |
1-3 |
--- |
|
UMass |
6-4 |
22 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
1-2 |
at Towson (28) |
|
Lehigh |
7-3 |
23 |
0-1 |
0-2 |
0-2 |
--- |
|
Army |
9-2 |
24 |
0-0 |
0-1 |
0-1 |
--- |
|
Loyola |
5-5 |
25 |
0-1 |
0-2 |
1-3 |
Towson (28) |
Yale remains in fine shape for a top-four seed with four weeks left before Selection Sunday. The Bulldogs still have Brown and Harvard left in the Ivy League’s round robin. … Virginia isn’t going to get much RPI help from its remaining opponents other than Duke, which it visits on Thursday. The Cavaliers’ last three games are against Quinnipiac, Syracuse and Lafayette, which came out of the weekend a combined 10-21. …
After smashing Harvard on Saturday, Cornell still has some valuable opportunities remaining: Army and Brown at home before closing Ivy play at Princeton. … Rutgers remains about where it was prior to losing at Maryland. Regardless of the score, dropping a game to the Terrapins isn’t going to damage a team’s profile. …
Penn still has a top-eight RPI, but it’s fair to wonder whether the committee would reward a .500 team with a home game in the first round. That’s not to say the Quakers, who still have Brown, Dartmouth, Saint Joseph’s and Albany to come, will finish at .500. … The overall strength of the Ivy League and the way the RPI compounds that means Harvard didn’t take a major hit for losing to Cornell. The same principle would hold in any of the Crimson’s final three games (at Penn, Princeton, at Yale), but it still wouldn’t be wise to lose out. …
Ohio State has a chance to earn a path to Memorial Day Weekend without leaving campus. The Buckeyes are already hosting a quarterfinal doubleheader, and a victory at Maryland on Saturday would go a long way in locking down a first-round home game. … Denver will be rooting for Ohio State to do just that. The better the Buckeyes do, the better it is for the Pioneers thanks to their victory in Columbus. …
Notre Dame gets back on the board by getting to .500. The Irish look the part right now, but they could use some extra heft for their profile. They still have a pair of top-20 games left — at home against North Carolina and Duke. … North Carolina’s top-20 victories have come against Denver (11), Richmond (15), Brown (17) and sub-.500 Johns Hopkins (20). …
Richmond faces a problem similar to Jacksonville’s. The Spiders won’t get any RPI help from facing Mercer or VMI, two of their final three regular-season opponents. … There is no understating the significance of Duke’s meeting with Virginia on Thursday. The Cavaliers have already swept North Carolina and won their lone meeting with Notre Dame. If they win in Durham, they won’t drag another ACC team into the tournament on their coattails. …
There’s hope for Brown, which landed the high-profile victory it was missing thanks to a victory at Penn. Yale and Cornell await the next two weekends. … The Bears’ victory also helped UMass, but not enough to offset the Minutemen’s loss at Towson. It’s hard to see how the CAA produces an at-large team at this point. …
Lehigh moves into the top 25 of the RPI after beating Bucknell on Sunday. The Mountain Hawks still have Colgate, Boston University and Loyola to come before the Patriot League tournament. … If Army is going to harbor even slim at-large hopes, it better beat Cornell on Saturday. … Loyola’s gone from 5-5 to making the NCAA tournament before — as in last year (albeit without Ivy League teams competing for at-large berths). The Greyhounds finish April with games against Boston University, Georgetown, Colgate and Lehigh.
BRACKET
A few notes worth remembering …
-
The NCAA will return to eight campus-site games in the first round this season. First-round conference matchups will be avoided, which can lead to some movement for the unseeded teams.
-
With the return of the Ivy League from last year’s hiatus and the addition of the Atlantic Sun, there are 10 conferences eligible for automatic berths. That means there will be two play-in games, featuring the four lowest-ranked automatic qualifying teams.
-
Limiting air travel remains a priority for the NCAA, so this won’t necessarily be a 1-through-16 bracket. Historically, the NCAA tries to bracket the field so only two teams must travel more than 400 miles for a first-round game, though it isn’t a completely inflexible rule.
-
Quarterfinal hosts are funneled into their home sites. Whichever quadrant of the bracket Ohio State lands in will play a second-weekend game in Columbus.
-
This exercise is an attempt to project what the NCAA committee would do based on its history and on this season’s results to date. It is not an attempt to predict future results or suggest what the committee should do.
Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal
(1) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. COLONIAL/Towson-METRO ATLANTIC/St. Bonaventure
(8) Ohio State vs. Denver
Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal
(5) Cornell vs. SOUTHERN/Jacksonville
(4) Yale vs. PATRIOT/Boston University
Columbus, Ohio, quarterfinal
(3) BIG EAST/Georgetown vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s
(6) Virginia vs. Penn
Hempstead, N.Y., quarterfinal
(7) Rutgers vs. Harvard
(2) IVY/Princeton vs. ATLANTIC SUN/Utah-AMERICA EAST/Binghamton
Last three in: Penn, Harvard, Denver
First three out: Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina
Moving in: Denver, Jacksonville, Towson
Moving out: Duke, UMass, Richmond
Conference call: Ivy (5), Big Ten (3), Big East (2)