Selection Sunday is less than five weeks away. The format for the NCAA men’s lacrosse tournament in the middle of a pandemic — from the number of teams to where it will be contested to what exactly what data will be leaned upon for selection and seeding — is still a bit of a mystery.
Which makes trying to guess what the field will look like a more challenging task than usual. But that isn’t going to prevent the attempt over the next month or so, even if information like the RPI is essentially meaningless with little-to-no cross pollination between leagues this season.
It also is going to require some good-faith assumptions, all of which can be tweaked in the next month as information changes. Some are basic: That there will be a 16-team tournament to provide television inventory on three consecutive weekends in May. There will be eight automatic bids. There will be eight at-large bids.
Some are a bit more nebulous. Quality victories are going to mean something, as usual, but how will they be defined? Hard to say. Same with glaring losses. Head-to-head results presumably will carry a little more weight than a typical year.
Then there are things that probably won’t come up. How can strength of schedule be applied when the Big Ten and Metro Atlantic are playing just league opponents and other conferences have extremely limited non-league games? Realistically, it can’t be. (For that matter, the RPI isn’t going to work, either.)
Usually, this is educated guesswork, with more emphasis on the educated part. Like it or not, the emphasis this time around will probably be on the guesswork, since it’s possible even the committee isn’t entirely sure exactly how the evaluation process will unfold.
Automatic Qualifiers (8)
|
|
W-L |
League |
Road |
Notable Wins |
Notable Losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland | 7-0 | 7-0 | 3-0 | Rutgers, at Rutgers | --- |
| Lehigh | 5-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 | Army, Loyola | --- |
| Delaware | 7-1 | 4-0 | 3-1 | at Drexel, Saint Joseph's | at Mount St. Mary's |
| UMBC | 5-1 | 4-1 | 1-1 | Stony Brook, Vermont | at Binghamton |
| Denver | 8-2 | 6-0 | 4-2 | Georgetown | --- |
| Monmouth | 4-1 | 3-1 | 1-1 | --- | at Mahattan |
| Saint Joseph's | 4-3 | 4-0 | 2-3 | --- | at Towson |
| Richmond | 4-4 | 3-0 | 2-1 | --- | --- |
The question for Maryland: Just what does it mean that the Terrapins have spent the last month-and-a-half clubbing Big Ten teams in a closed circuit? At the very least, the consistency is impressive. … Lehigh is both good and fortunate; its victories over Army and Loyola give it well-earned control of the Patriot League face, and it also beat both of those teams at home. In fact, the Mountain Hawks get five of their conference games at home. …
Delaware carries a seven-game winning streak into its rematch with Drexel this weekend. The Blue Hens have yet to see either Hofstra or UMass in league play. … UMBC claims the America East automatic berth for the purposes of this exercise thanks to its head-to-head defeats of Stony Brook and Vermont. …
Denver is 1-2 against teams with a winning record. The Pioneers lost at Duke and North Carolina in February and beat Georgetown at home last month. Its first meeting with Villanova was postponed. … The Metro Atlantic-only schedule will invariably create skepticism about how good the league’s eventual champion is, whether it’s Monmouth or someone else. …
It’s a big two-week stretch for Saint Joseph’s, which visits Hobart and Bryant in key Northeast Conference games. … Richmond outscored its first three Southern Conference foes 57-21, and it hosts the league tournament next month. Even with three losses to ACC teams, the Spiders remain the conference favorite.
At-Large (19 teams/8 slots)
|
|
W-L |
League |
Road |
Notable Wins |
Notable Losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 10-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | North Carolina, Syracuse, Denver, at Richmond | --- |
| North Carolina | 8-1 | 1-1 | 2-1 | at Virginia, Denver, Richmond | --- |
| Georgetown | 7-1 | 6-1 | 4-1 | at Villanova, Villanova | --- |
| Notre Dame | 5-1 | 1-1 | 1-0 | at Syracuse | --- |
| Virginia | 8-2 | 1-2 | 2-1 | at Notre Dame, Army, at Loyola, Richmond | --- |
| Navy | 3-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | --- | --- |
| Albany | 5-2 | 3-2 | 2-1 | UMass | --- |
| Boston U. | 5-2 | 3-1 | 3-0 | --- | Utah |
| Bryant | 5-2 | 3-1 | 2-1 | Vermont | Hobart |
| Hofstra | 5-2 | 2-1 | 2-0 | Stony Brook | St. John's |
| Rutgers | 5-2 | 5-2 | 2-1 | --- | --- |
| Stony Brook | 6-3 | 4-1 | 2-3 | Bryant, Albany | --- |
| Army | 4-2 | 2-1 | 2-2 | at Syracuse, at Boston U., Saint Joseph's | --- |
| Drexel | 4-2 | 2-2 | 0-1 | UMass | --- |
| Villanova | 4-2 | 4-2 | 2-1 | --- | --- |
| Loyola | 5-3 | 3-1 | 2-2 | at Navy, at Richmond | at Towson |
| UMass | 3-2 | 3-1 | 1-2 | at Hofstra, Drexel | --- |
| Syracuse | 4-3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | Virginia, Vermont, Stony Brook | --- |
| Vermont | 4-3 | 4-1 | 2-3 | at Albany | --- |
THE SOLIDLY IN ACCs
Duke has what is probably the best win on the board (North Carolina) and has yet to lose. The Blue Devils have the strongest profile to this point. … As for the best road victory so far this season? The nod probably goes to North Carolina for its triumph at Virginia last month. …
Notre Dame didn’t leave South Bend until early April, then picked off Syracuse at the Carrier Dome. The Irish return home to play Duke on Saturday. … For the moment, Virginia would probably be the No. 4 seed — behind unbeaten Duke and Maryland, as well as a North Carolina team it lost to at home.
TWO WITH PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY VICTORIES
Syracuse is listed near the bottom of the chart thanks to its winning percentage, but the victory over Virginia is a differentiator. … If the Orange’s boat rises, so does Army’s thanks to its February victory at the Carrier Dome. The Black Knights’ losses (on the road against Lehigh and Virginia) won’t cause it any harm, either.
MIGHT LIVE ON QUANTITY
Georgetown isn’t playing a league-only schedule — it drubbed Mount St. Mary’s and has a trip to Loyola scheduled for May 1 — but its opportunities for high-end victories have been limited. A sweep of Villanova will help only so much, and the Hoyas would be well-served to pick off Denver when the Pioneers come to D.C. on April 17. That, or just win the Big East tournament like in 2018 and 2019. …
Rutgers has already lost its two games against Maryland, and it boasts a sweep of Ohio State. So what’s left for the Scarlet Knights? Games against three 2-5 teams (Johns Hopkins, Michigan and Penn State) and the Big Ten tournament. All Brian Brecht’s bunch can do is keep winning games, though it is possible Rutgers could wind up 9-3 and not own a victory over a team with a .500 or better record.
SORTING OUT THE REST
How good are the contenders who don’t lead the America East (Albany, Stony Brook and Vermont) and the Colonial (Drexel, Hofstra and UMass)? It might be too early to tell with any of those. …
Loyola’s been up and down all season, though its loss at Towson late last month damaged its at-large hopes. The Greyhounds still have home games against Army and Georgetown still to come, but a loss to either might (and losses to both would) leave them with one route to an NCAA berth: The Patriot League tournament.
PROJECTED BRACKET
Two built-in assumptions: There will be no play-in game since the Ivy League is not sponsoring the sport this spring, and the tournament will take place in one geographic area.
The latter point allows something closer to a 1-through-16 bracket, though avoiding conference matchups will probably remain a committee precept. That comes into play this week, as Army and Georgetown are flipped.
(1) Duke vs. METRO ATLANTIC/Monmouth
(8) PATRIOT/Lehigh vs. Rutgers
(5) Notre Dame vs. COLONIAL/Delaware
(4) Virginia vs. AMERICA EAST/UMBC
(3) North Carolina vs. SOUTHERN/Richmond
(6) BIG EAST/Denver vs. Army
(7) Syracuse vs. Georgetown
(2) BIG TEN/Maryland vs. NORTHEAST/Saint Joseph’s