Call it “The One With No Surprises.”
For as unpredictable as much of the Division I lacrosse season was, one of the biggest stunners might just be how clear-cut it was for the selection committee to pick and bracket the 17-team field.
“I’ve been through it four times this round and twice in the mid-2000s, and I would agree with that,” committee chairman and Brown athletic director Jack Hayes said.
The committee found separation between the two schools that landed the last two seeded slots (No. 7 Notre Dame and No. 8 Loyola) and the two that will visit those programs (Johns Hopkins heads to Notre Dame, while Syracuse will visit Loyola).
The five-person group broke down Hopkins, Syracuse, Maryland and Cornell for the last three spots, with Cornell emerging as the odd team out.
There was no travel-related angst; the bracket worked out so well, only one team (Hopkins) will have to fly for its first-round game.
It meant virtually no unexpected twists heading into a three-week sprint to Memorial Day.
“No, quite honestly,” said Loyola coach Charley Toomey, a former committee member. “I could tell you we weren’t surprised how it ended up. Looking at the numbers, who we thought would be where [played out that way].”
THE FAVORITE
Penn State
The logical counter to the longstanding cliché of “defense wins championships” is “you have to score to win.”
And, good heavens, can Penn State score.
The Nittany Lions (14-1), the top seed for the first time, has won 11 games in a row. It has scored at least 13 goals in every game this season. And when Johns Hopkins relentlessly chased after Penn State in Saturday’s Big Ten title game, the Nittany Lions still found a way to come out on top 18-17 in overtime.
Now, it’s perfectly fair to question how the they will handle a most unfamiliar situation. Penn State has never won an NCAA tournament game, let alone played on the final weekend of the season. But an offense keyed by Grant Ament and Mac O’Keefe has already demonstrated it can do a lot to keep the Nits on the right pat
LAST TEAM IN
Maryland
The Terrapins will hit the road for a first-round game for the first time since 2012, so they’re not exactly accustomed to getting roiled by a wait on Selection Sunday.
But the Terrapins stretched their streak of consecutive NCAA tournament appearances to 17 — tied for the third longest ever with North Carolina’s from 1980 to 1996 — by snapping up the last spot in the field.
“We kind of left it to somebody else and didn’t keep it in our hands, and there’s nobody else to blame but myself for putting us in that situation,” Maryland coach John Tillman said. “To know we have another day together is exciting. I’m fired up. This weekend, we had to sit back and wait and hope things broke out way. There were some things that didn’t early, but things definitely broke our way the last couple days.
FIRST TEAM OUT
Cornell
The Big Red had a pair of noteworthy victories over Notre Dame and Towson. But that was basically it.
In the end, the lack of depth to Cornell’s profile — especially in comparison to Hopkins, Maryland and Syracuse — meant its season ended with an Ivy League semifinal loss to Yale.
“Cornell had the least amount of top-20 wins [in that group], and they had two,” Hayes said. “Maryland had five, Hopkins had three and had the No. 1 strength of schedule. Syracuse had four and had a head-to-head win over Cornell. We felt when we took the four of them, we couldn’t find a way that Cornell would stay in and one of the others would come out.”
TOUGHEST DRAW
Notre Dame
The seventh-seeded Irish catch Johns Hopkins right when the Blue Jays are hitting their stride. Hopkins won back-to-back games against Maryland and then pushed top-seeded Penn State to overtime. The Blue Jays could be an exceptionally tough out.
If Notre Dame advances, it could very well get a Duke team it split two games with this season. The Blue Devils are a tested postseason bunch, having reached the national title game in 2018.
UPSET ALERT
Georgetown over Yale?
Truth be told, the list of first-round gimmes continues to shrink. But with Hopkins-Notre Dame and Syracuse-Loyola looking like coin flips and Maryland sputtering as it heads into its first-round date with Towson, maybe the defending champs will have some trouble with the Big East winner Hoyas.
Yale is capable of slowing down nearly anyone, so it will be a challenge for a Georgetown offense led by Daniel Bucaro and Jake Carraway to get going. Yet the Hoyas have saved their best for May two years running, and the agony of last year’s loss to Johns Hopkins in the first round hasn’t been forgotten. Yale could very well win, but Georgetown won’t just be happy to be there.
PAYBACK TIME?
Richmond visits Duke
The committee gifted the lacrosse world not just with a bracket that required minimal tinkering, there are also a bunch of fairly fresh matchups on the first weekend.
It will be the first Georgetown-Yale matchup since 2011. In-state foes Towson and Maryland haven’t played since 2011. Loyola and Syracuse haven’t met since 2009. Same with Army and Penn. Johns Hopkins hasn’t encountered Notre Dame since 2007.
There’s only one rematch of a regular season game from this season: Duke’s 11-7 victory at Richmond on March 1.
There are a couple notable rematch possibilities in the quarterfinals. Penn and Yale could meet for the third time, while there could be a third round between Duke and Notre Dame as well.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Grant Ament, Penn State: The redshirt junior owns the NCAA record for assists in a season with 78. He’s managed to accomplish this before the postseason even though he missed one game and served as a decoy for much of another. He’s the engine for the Nittany Lions’ high-powered offense, and no one’s held him to less than five points when he’s been fully healthy.
Daniel Bucaro, Georgetown: Both he and Jake Carraway have scored 53 goals this season, and Bucaro did it in one less game. Both are explosive, but there is an added level of poignance to Bucaro’s story. He missed the postseason last year because of injury, and he needed Georgetown’s latest Big East tournament run to get a chance to play in the NCAA tournament. He’ll be ready, even against Yale’s exceptional defense
Ryan Conrad, Virginia: Another feel-good story, Conrad is coming off an ACC tournament MVP honor after leading the Cavaliers to victories over North Carolina and Notre Dame that helped them land the No. 3 seed. Conrad isn’t the most statistically prolific player, but he has a hand in nearly everything — the first midfield, faceoff wings, some defense. A throwback, do-it-all player, he missed Virginia’s NCAA tournament cameo last year, and he’ll play a big role if the Cavaliers make a deep push.
Adam Goldner, Penn: The junior pieced together a 50-goal season for the upstart Quakers, who rolled through the Ivy League undefeated and then toppled Brown and Yale to claim the league tournament as well. Of course, it’s hard to pick out one star on the Penn offense. Sam Handley (34 goals) and Simon Mathias (30) are among seven Quakers with at least 13 goals, and among nine with at least 10 points.
Zach Goodrich, Towson: Yup, Goodrich is still around and still one of the best short stick defensive midfielders the college game has seen in a long while. He was a pivotal piece in Towson’s push to Memorial Day weekend in 2017, and he’ll be crucial if the Tigers are to dispatch Maryland and (perhaps) Virginia over the next two weekends.
TD Ierlan, Yale: The junior has done for Yale exactly what he did in two seasons at Albany — provide a near-monopoly on possession at times for his team. Ierlan has won 77.2 percent of his faceoffs this season, and claimed 79.4 percent of his attempts in Ivy League play. Beating the Bulldogs means negating Ierlan’s skillset or overcoming a severe possession deficit. Neither is an easy task
Pat Spencer, Loyola: It’s the last go-round for the Loyola senior, who has 360 career points — four behind former Albany star Connor Fields for No. 2 on the all-time Division I list. He’s become an even more potent scorer out of necessity as a senior, but he’s still capable of functioning as the best point guard in the sport. The mere possibility of him sharing a field with Penn State’s Grant Ament in the quarterfinals is something to look forward to.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF …
Nearly every first-round game is competitive
In addition to the opening game of the weekend (Syracuse-Loyola) and the Sunday night anchor (Hopkins-Notre Dame), it’s striking just how many teams head into the postseason playing well as they angle to pull off a surprise.
Army just won three games in six days, yielding only 17 goals in that span to claim the Patriot League title. Could the Black Knights slow down Penn?
Georgetown has won five in a row and has scored a dozen times in each of its last six games. The Hoyas won’t be an easy task for Yale.
Even a Robert Morris (winners of eight in a row) or a Richmond (avenged two previous losses in the Southern Conference tournament) could present some problems.
YOU’LL HEAR A LOT ABOUT …
High Point’s fate
The Panthers landed stellar early victories over Duke and Virginia, then were done in by a combination of a couple dubious losses (Jacksonville and St. John’s), a strength of schedule brought down by the bottom half of the Southern Conference and a league tournament loss to Richmond.
“That’s the thing: You feel for them and you want to congratulate them on a great year and those two wins, but there are other teams under consideration that have top-10 wins or multiple top-20 wins but don’t have losses like that and don’t have a strength of schedule in the mid-50s,” Hayes said. “It’s not to take anything away from them. But when you look at a resume that looks very different like that, it’s hard to move them forward.”
Based on the committee’s established criteria, it was clear weeks ago High Point would need to win the SoCon tournament to get into the field. That didn’t happen, which is unfortunate for both the Panthers and fans of the sport. High Point could have made life very miserable for a high-end team.
PREDICTIONS
1. Penn State won’t just cruise into Philadelphia.
It’s worth reiterating: The Nittany Lions have never won an NCAA tournament game. And while what happened 10 or 25 or 45 years ago isn’t relevant this month, the fact Penn State’s current roster hasn’t dealt with the crucible of a quarterfinal is significant. Assuming Jeff Tambroni’s bunch handles the play-in winner, bank on Loyola or Syracuse causing some problems.
2. Maryland’s stay is short.
It’s generally a bad bet to think the Terrapins will fizzle in May. After all, they are 21-7 in the NCAA tournament under Tillman, and they’ve reached the final weekend in each of the last five years. Yet Maryland isn’t playing great, having sputtered after building early leads on Johns Hopkins in its last two outings. That’s not a good recipe against Towson, a team as good as anyone at holding onto a lead once it has it.
3. Offense will define the postseason.
Of the top 18 offenses in the country, 10 of them will be part of the tournament. That includes the top three (Penn State, Yale and Penn), along with three others (Georgetown, Loyola and Virginia) tied for sixth at exactly 14 goals a game. It’s no secret the shot clock has helped increase scoring this season, and the capable offenses in the field suggest there won’t be many 8-7 games the rest of the month.
GRADING THE COMMITTEE
A
With no disrespect intended toward Hayes and his fellow committee members, this one just wasn’t that hard to sort out. There were nine credible teams for eight at-large spots (with Denver and Ohio State as fringier options), and a geographically compact field (besides Notre Dame) permitted the committee to bracket the field equitably rather than bow to the NCAA’s cost-containment demands.
Notre Dame’s strength of schedule helped land it a home game. Loyola’s opening week defeat of Virginia coupled with a head-to-head defeat of Johns Hopkins were assets in earning the No. 8 seed. Maryland was just a bit better than Cornell.
Basically, the five people in Indianapolis got it right. Whether it was a greater challenge this time around than some other years is beside the point. They achieved their task.