A week after the book was closed on the 2019 season, it’s time to look ahead at what’s to come next spring. Rationally, it’s too early to do so effectively — there are transfers (hello, Chris Gray) still seeking new homes and (unfortunately) injuries still to surface. Nonetheless, it’s an exercise to ponder what’s next in the college game, a good thing since we're eight months out from the first game of 2020.
Up next: Nos. 16-20, a group of teams with some questions but also likely to be heard from next spring.
Way-Early 2020 Rankings
Division I Men
No. 25-No. 21
No. 20-No. 16
No. 15-No. 11
No. 10-No. 6
No. 5-No. 1
Division I Women
No. 25-No. 21
No. 20-No. 16
No. 15-No. 11
No. 10-No. 6
No. 5-No. 1
Division III Men
No. 10-No. 6
No. 5-No. 1
Division III Women
No. 10-No. 6
No. 5-No. 1
20. ARMY
2019 record: 13-5 (5-3 Patriot)
Last seen: Unable to get its defensive brilliance in the Patriot League tournament to completely translate during an NCAA first round loss to Penn.
Senior starts lost: 73 of 180 (40.56 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 67 of 325 points (20.62 percent)
Initial forecast: The path to success for the Black Knights never veers far in one direction or another. In both frustrating seasons (2018) and exhilarating ones (2019), Army is going to find itself in plenty of close games. Most of the time, it’s a matter of how well the Black Knights handle the details. That could be an issue early next year, if only because it will take time to replace some significant holes on defense. Johnny Surdick was a deserving winner of the Schmeisser Award as the nation’s top defenseman, and Army also graduates a four-year starter in the cage (AJ Barretto) and a two-year starting close defenseman (Griffin Schultz). There will be more continuity on offense, where Brendan Nichtern (30 goals, 50 assists) will be the top player on every scouting report. Who emerges as a four-year mainstay Nate Jones’ replacement on attack? Six of the top goal-scorers are back, a group that includes finisher Miles Silva, Army-Navy game hero Matt Manown and Sean O’Brien, who had 16 of his 33 points in the season’s last five games. If the defense sorts itself out, Army could repeat as Patriot League champs.
19. VILLANOVA
2019 record: 8-7 (3-2 Big East)
Last seen: Getting shuffled out of the Big East tournament with a 17-11 semifinal loss at Denver, a defeat that left the Wildcats with three losses in their last four games.
Senior starts lost: 10 of 150 (6.67 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 27 of 272 points (9.93 percent)
Initial forecast: The streaky Wildcats — who after an opening loss to Penn State won three in a row, lost three in a row and won four in a row before their late fade — will hope a little more maturity will lead to a bit more consistency next season. Only three other Division I teams — Cleveland State, Dartmouth and St. Bonaventure — lose a lower percentage of their games started to graduation, and all six of Villanova’s 20-point scorers are back. It’s a group that includes Big East Midfielder of the Year Connor Kirst (31 goals, 19 assists) and Keegan Khan (21 goals, 29 assists), finisher Corey McManus (35 goals) and Matt Campbell, who scored 28 goals as a freshman. The biggest loss is probably short stick TJ Comizio, an exit that doesn’t adequately register in the two senior stats listed above. Still, Villanova has the least questions about experience in the Big East; everyone else in the league except Georgetown loses at least 40 percent of their starts, and every other Big East team besides Denver graduates 37 percent or more of their points. The Wildcats have a window opening next spring.
18. RUTGERS
2019 record: 7-8 (2-3 Big Ten)
Last seen: On the wrong end of an exquisite Penn State performance in the Big Ten semifinals — an 18-6 Scarlet Knight loss that came five days after they fell to the Nittany Lions by only a goal.
Senior starts lost: 43 of 150 (28.67 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 21 of 276 points (7.61 percent)
Initial forecast: Let’s start with a given — Rutgers will be fun to watch on offense. The Scarlet Knights hit double figures in eight consecutive games prior to their conference tournament exit, and their top six in points (and top five in goals) will return. That means another year of Adam Charalambides (47 goals, 14 assists) and Kieran Mullins (23 goals, 37 assists) spearheading an attack capable of applying pressure on anyone when healthy. But Rutgers also needs every bit of offense it can muster, especially against high-end opponents. The Scarlet Knights were 0-7 against eventual NCAA tournament teams, giving up 14.9 goals per game in those contests, and they’ll need to replace both a first team All-Big Ten goalie (Max Edelmann) and their top defenseman (Kyle Pless). For Rutgers’ 15-year postseason drought to end next year, it requires significant gains at the defensive end far more than marginal advances on offense. The early guess? Much like this past season, Rutgers will be dangerous enough to make anyone uncomfortable, yet also a team that remains tethered close to .500 as it sorts out its defense.
17. HIGH POINT
2019 record: 13-3 (6-1 Southern)
Last seen: Turning in its only thoroughly noncompetitive game of the season at precisely the wrong time with a 15-7 drubbing at the hands of Richmond in the Southern Conference title game.
Senior starts lost: 44 of 160 (27.5 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 82 of 354 points (23.16 percent)
Initial forecast: So what’s next for the program responsible for one of the weirdest postseason resumes ever? The Panthers scored early victories at Duke and Virginia, but also lost to Jacksonville and St. John’s and were not even a close call for an at-large berth to the NCAA tournament. The good news? Attackman Asher Nolting (44 goals, 48 assists) is only halfway through his career and will again anchor an offense set to return six of its top seven scorers. The bad news? The one departure in that group is finisher Chris Young (44 goals), who along with goalie Tim Troutner Jr. leave a couple notable vacancies in coach Jon Torpey’s lineup. And now the dicey: High Point went 6-1 in one-goal games, and that sort of success in tight contests isn’t easy to replicate year over year. The Panthers may very well solve that problem by being better and avoiding as many close calls, but this past season made clear their best — and maybe only — path to the NCAA tournament is via the Southern Conference’s automatic bid.
16. NORTH CAROLINA
2019 record: 8-7 (1-3 Atlantic Coast)
Last seen: Nearly tripping up eventual ACC tournament champion Virginia in the event’s semifinals, a victory the Tar Heels needed to have any realistic hope of landing an at-large bid.
Senior starts lost: 76 of 150 (50.67 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 76 of 279 points (27.24 percent)
Initial forecast: It feels like an inflection point for North Carolina, which has missed back-to-back NCAA tournaments for the first time since 2005-06 and just graduated the last major pieces from its 2016 national championship team (namely midfielder Timmy Kelly and defenseman Jack Rowlett). The Tar Heels were never really that far off for much of this past spring, and a 2-5 record in games decided by two goals or less perfectly illustrates the close-but-not-quite nature of Carolina’s latest season. Joe Breschi’s bunch will be helped by a healthy Will Bowen (who would have contributed on close defense this year), but it needs an offensive centerpiece; Will Perry (26 goals) was the only Tar Heel to score more than 20 times this spring. With Virginia’s resurgence, the ACC is as daunting a neighborhood as ever for Carolina, which is just 23-22 since it hoisted the title trophy three years ago.