A week after the book was closed on the 2019 season, it’s time to look ahead at what’s to come next spring. Rationally, it’s too early to do so effectively — there are transfers (hello, Chris Gray) still seeking new homes and (unfortunately) injuries still to surface. Nonetheless, it’s an exercise to ponder what’s next in the college game, a good thing since we're eight months out from the first game of 2020.
Up first: Six teams with a chance to make a run at top-20 status next season.
Way-Early 2020 Rankings
Division I Men
No. 25-No. 21
No. 20-No. 16
No. 15-No. 11
No. 10-No. 6
No. 5-No. 1
Division I Women
No. 25-No. 21
No. 20-No. 16
No. 15-No. 11
No. 10-No. 6
No. 5-No. 1
Division III Men
No. 10-No. 6
No. 5-No. 1
Division III Women
No. 10-No. 6
No. 5-No. 1
T-25. HOFSTRA
2019 record: 5-9 (2-3 Colonial)
Last seen: Defeating Fairfield 11-9 in a regular-season finale between teams already eliminated from CAA tournament contention.
Senior starts lost: 26 of 140 (18.57 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 22 of 182 points (12.09 percent)
Initial forecast: Let’s address the elephant in the room first. If the Pride can’t find the net more, it’s going to be another forgettable year in Hempstead. After all, this was a team that was a respectable 20th in the country in scoring defense, 24th in faceoff percentage (despite losing Kyle Gallagher to Penn) and fifth in clearing percentage. But Hofstra scored just nine goals a contest, getting little consistency beyond Ryan Tierney (42 goals, 13 assists) en route to a 2-5 record in one-goal contests. The Pride was right there with Lehigh in a race for the lousiest injury luck in the country (including losing a player who was stretching just before an opening faceoff and another in a weight room mishap). There’s enough back all over the field to reasonably believe Hofstra will be solid everywhere but offense. If just two or three reliable complements to Tierney can emerge (and Dylan McIntosh, who missed about half the season with a broken jaw, is a decent option to bounce back), even that caveat will be removed and Hofstra could be a factor in the Colonial.
T-25. DREXEL
2019 record: 7-8 (2-3 Colonial)
Last seen: Falling to Towson in the conference title game, two days after bringing an end to CAA regular season champ Massachusetts’ season with a complete showing in the league semifinals
Senior starts lost: 30 of 150 (20 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 69 of 303 points (22.77 percent)
Initial forecast: What you think of the Dragons’ prospects for 2020 ties directly into a pair of themes often explored in the annual way-too-early-lookahead series. One, what is the value of continuity? Two, what is the likelihood a team replicates its performance in close games year over year? In the latter case, the value of experience and consistency depends on the team, but Drexel has to feel good about bringing back seven of its top eight in points, including second team all-CAA options in attackman Reid Bowering (47 goals) and midfielder Collin Mailman (22 goals). Another second team all-league pick (Sean Quinn, who had a team-high 24 caused turnovers) will be back to anchor the defense. As for the tight games, luck should probably even out to some extent over time and the Dragons were 2-6 in contests decided by two goals or less. Drexel graduates only six seniors, and a jump in the win column wouldn’t come as a surprise.
24. RICHMOND
2019 record: 10-7 (5-2 Southern)
Last seen: Aggravating Duke into the final minute of as 12-11 first round loss in the NCAA tournament.
Senior starts lost: 53 of 170 (31.18 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 133 of 327 points (40.67 percent)
Initial forecast: Here’s the full list of schools with at least five consecutive 10-win seasons: Maryland (17), Duke (13), Denver (7), Yale (5) and Richmond (5). That’s it. The Spiders got there in 2018 thanks to a Southern Conference title run, and while the program isn’t quite a threat for an at-large berth just yet, it is an annual contender for an automatic bid and plenty capable of making life miserable for brand-name programs (just ask Notre Dame, which it beat, and Maryland and Duke, which escaped with one-goal victories). Like any team, Richmond has some notable departures, particular top feeder Teddy Hatfield. But the Spiders’ two honorable mention All-America selections (Canadian attackman Ryan Lanchbury, as well as midfielder Mitch Savoca) head into their junior years, and stingy goalie Jack Rusbuldt (.558 save percentage) will be a redshirt junior. It’s plenty obvious what could use some work — a faceoff unit that ranked 67th out of 73 teams in Division I at just 36.2 percent. Richmond will probably be picked second in the SoCon behind High Point next year, but the Spiders are 29-5 in league play since 2015 and will surely be heard from.
23. PRINCETON
2019 record: 7-7 (2-4 Ivy)
Last seen: Squandering a two-goal lead in the fourth quarter of a 14-13 loss at Cornell to close out the regular season.
Senior starts lost: 34 of 140 (24.29 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 82 of 314 points (26.11 percent)
Initial forecast: The Tigers have a Tewaaraton finalist back in attackman Michael Sowers, who takes quite the CV into his senior year. He owns Princeton’s top three single-season point totals, including a program-record 90 in 2019. He is the Tigers’ career scoring leader with 255 points and still has another season to go. His 6.07 points per game is the best career total in the last 38 years. But then there’s the elephant in the room: Princeton not only has yet to play in the NCAA tournament with Sowers on the roster, but it has missed the Ivy League tournament the last two seasons as well. The Tigers have taken the necessary steps to improve at the defensive end; opponents shot 29.7 percent in 2017, 28.8 percent in 2018 and 26.2 percent in 2019 (granted, with the shot clock helping to push shooting percentages down this spring). But Princeton still hasn’t solved a long-running problem: subpar faceoff play. The Tigers haven’t cracked 50 percent on draws since 2012, which not-so-coincidentally was also the last time they made the NCAA tournament. If Princeton can improve at the X, this placement will wildly undersell the Tigers.
22. DELAWARE
2019 record: 10-5 (3-2 Colonial)
Last seen: Dropping three in a row, including an 18-11 stumble in the CAA semifinals against Towson, to leave a sour taste after an otherwise impressive turnaround season.
Senior starts lost: 43 of 150 (28.67 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 93 of 270 points (34.44 percent)
Initial forecast: From the outside, the Blue Hens look like a team that consistently reached its level this spring. Delaware was 0-5 against top-25 RPI teams, and 10-0 against everyone else. And its place in the CAA during coach Ben DeLuca’s first two seasons was equally clear — 0-6 against Towson and Massachusetts, 6-0 against the other three schools. Yet it is a bunch unquestionably on the rise after recording its first winning season since 2011. Charlie Kitchen (37 goals, 27 assists) was the CAA’s co-offensive player of the year, Tye Kurtz (31 goals, 21 assists) picked up the league’s rookie of the year honor and Matt DeLuca (.581 save percentage) provided high-end play in the goal for most of the season. All three have eligibility remaining and help provide a sound foundation, even as the Blue Hens move forward without some key graduations (attackman Joe Eisele, midfielder Dean DiSimone, defenseman Austin Haynes and short stick defensive midfielder Alex Brunner, among them). The Blue Hens were steadier in DeLuca’s second season than his first, and they should make some more progress in 2020.
21. GEORGETOWN
2019 record: 13-5 (3-2 Big East)
Last seen: Unleashing Daniel Bucaro’s eight-goal onslaught on defending champion Yale but coming up short 19-16 in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
Senior starts lost: 54 of 180 (30 percent)
Senior scoring departing: 215 of 409 points (52.57 percent)
Initial forecast: What we learned about the Hoyas this spring was how well they could switch from the defense-first approach that keyed their Big East title run in 2018 to a willingness to let loose on offense and light up the scoreboard. It helped to have Bucaro (61 goals, 26 assists), the second Hoyas ever to roll up 200 career points, as well as Lucas Wittenberg (23 goals, 37 assists) and Robert Clark (33 goals, 13 assists). All three were seniors, and they account for the bulk of the starts and scoring exiting the program. Georgetown still has honorable mention All-America pick Jake Carraway (57 goals, 31 assists) on attack, and Gibson Smith will be back to anchor a defense that will be asked to tighten up in 2020. It should help the Hoyas that pretty much everyone else in the Big East besides Villanova has some significant retooling to go through. Much like this past season, it could take some time for Georgetown to settle on an identity, but Kevin Warne’s program should not be overlooked as it chases its third NCAA tournament appearance in a row.