Burning questions remain as the selection committee pours over the final numbers and notes to name the 27-team field for this year’s championship field.

Who are the Top 4 seeds? Who is the No. 8 seed? Who is in and who is out?

Let’s start at the top.

Last week, we did a small dive into why Maryland remains No. 1 and why North Carolina leapfrogged several teams, including the human polls’ unanimous No. 1 Stony Brook, to grab the No. 2 seed.

The Tar Heels, who hold No. 1 in both RPI and strength of schedule, remain one of just two teams to earn three wins against the RPI Top 10 (the other is Maryland). It’s going to be hard to punish UNC for its three losses because they all came against RPI Top 10 teams. When you see a quality profile that includes wins over RPI Nos. 2, 3 and 10, and Stony Brook’s wins are over Nos. 7 and 10, there’s proof that the Tar Heels are worthy. They have proven that they can beat anyone in the field (including our projected No. 1 seed, Maryland).

Stony Brook has not done that (yet) because of its weaker schedule. Nevertheless, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Seawolves grab No. 2 and push Carolina to the third seed line because of its unblemished record.

So why did Boston College drop from a projected two seed to No. 4? The loss to Carolina isn’t bad, but the Eagles are lacking high wins. Their win over Carolina earlier in the year was the only win against the RPI Top 10 until Navy’s surge added another (The Mids are No. 8). There are six other squads that have more wins in that category.

One of them is James Madison. With its second victory over Towson combined with an early season win over North Carolina, JMU carries three Top 10 wins against just one loss (to Maryland). Because of this, the Dukes have a case to be seeded ahead of BC. This will be an important decision for the committee, which we project to side with the Eagles.

The ramifications of Towson’s loss combined with Navy’s victory is that the Tigers keep the No. 8 seed. Loyola would have gained that seed line had it defeated Navy.

Finally, the ins and outs of the bubble.

Two teams significantly improved their position relative to the bubble in the semifinal of their tournaments: Denver and Penn State. Denver was in the greatest danger of being dropped had it lost to Georgetown because of an earlier lost to Temple. The Pioneers are in easily, as are the Nittany Lions who captured an RPI Top 10 win over Northwestern. Penn State had to overcome its own poor loss to Michigan.

That left six teams battling for three spots: Georgetown, Johns Hopkins, USC, Navy, Dartmouth and Notre Dame.

The Fighting Irish have a pair of Top 20 wins (Syracuse and Virginia), but losses to Albany and High Point will keep them out. Dartmouth is closer than Notre Dame because of its win over Princeton, but the Big Green won’t be able to overcome a loss to Brown.

Georgetown should hear its name tonight because of wins over Denver and Johns Hopkins, while avoiding a significant loss. The Blue Jays will sweat out another Selection Sunday, but unlike last year where the Blue Jays lacked a quality win, the victory over Loyola will loom impressive enough for the committee. 

So that leaves two teams: Johns Hopkins and USC.

It will come down to how the committee interprets their profiles and enacts the selection criteria. Hopkins beats USC with a superior RPI (18 vs. 26) and edges the Trojans in SOS (8 vs. 10). USC boasts more significant wins (two in the Top 20), but quality wins out here because Hopkins’ significant win is over No. 9 Loyola. Additionally, the Blue Jays avoided the pratfall of a bad loss, which USC has (Oregon).

Notes: Records against the top 10, top 11-20, top 21-30 and losses to teams outside the top 30 are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (from LaxPower.com), not human polls. 

Automatic Qualifiers (14)

	RPI	SOS	T10	T11-20	T21-30	31+ L
North Carolina	1	1	3-3	6-0	2-0	—
Maryland	2	9	3-1	5-0	4-0	—
James Madison	4	6	3-1	2-0	3-0	—
Florida	5	4	2-2	5-1	0-0	—
Stony Brook	6	42	2-0	3-0	2-0	—
Navy	8	21	1-3	1-0	3-0	—
Princeton	13	24	0-2	2-2	2-1	—
Stanford	14	28	0-1	1-2	4-0	—
High Point	18	40	0-2	0-0	2-0	—
Richmond	23	50	0-1	0-1	3-2	—
Jacksonville	44	83	0-1	0-0	0-2	—
Fairfield	50	97	0-0	0-0	0-1	Boston U. (38), UConn (41), Marist (56), Columbia (57), Monmouth (74)
Wagner	58	84	0-0	0-0	1-1	Hofstra (52), Bryant (63), Iona (81), UMass Lowell (95)
Mercer	85	102	0-0	0-0	0-0	Liberty (38), Jacksonville (43), Winthrop (48), Louisville (53), California (72), Coastal Carolina (73), Fresno State (87), Furman (88), Central Michigan (90), Old Dominion (91)

North Carolina was idle after its ACC Championship. The Tar Heels remain in line for a top four seed. … Maryland remains the top-seeded team. A third straight Big Ten Tournament title will clinch that on Selection Sunday. … James Madison’s win over Towson was a boost to the Dukes’ hopes of a top four seed. …

Florida again won the Big East with ease by downing Marquette and Denver. … Stony Brook dispatched Albany for another America East regular season title. … Navy again prevailed in the Patriot League. ...

Stanford, like UNC, was idle after its impressive run to the inaugural Pac-12 title. … Princeton won its rematch against the Quakers for the Ivy League title. … High Point’s impressive season continues after winning the Big South over Winthrop. Can the Panthers turn another upset in this year’s tournament? …

Richmond won the Atlantic 10 in dramatic fashion on its home field. … Jacksonville set an A-Sun record for most goals scored in a tournament game (25) en route to victory. … Fairfield rose from the slugfest that was the MAAC, which featured four co-champions in the semifinals. …

Wagner won in triple overtime against host Bryant. The Seahawks could avoid the play-in game if the committee deems their win over No. 30 Lehigh as sufficient evidence (Fairfield did not card a win over the RPI Top 50). … Mercer won the inaugural SoCon tournament on its home field. The Bears (9-10) are the lone sub-.500 team in the tournament.

At-Large Bids (17 teams/13 spots)

	RPI	SOS	T10	T11-20	T21-30	31+L
Boston College	3	16	2-1	3-0	6-0	—
Towson	7	8	1-4	2-0	2-0	—
Loyola	9	22	2-2	3-2	2-0	—
Northwestern	10	12	1-3	3-0	3-2	—
Penn	11	25	0-2	3-3	1-1	—
Colorado	12	20	0-2	3-2	1-1	—
Virginia Tech	15	13	0-4	2-1	4-1	—
Georgetown	17	15	0-5	2-1	1-0	—
Denver	16	11	0-3	3-2	0-0	Temple (43)
Syracuse	18	3	2-5	1-1	0-3	—
Virginia	20	5	0-5	2-2	3-2	—
Penn State	21	2	1-6	1-1	2-0	—
Johns Hopkins	22	10	1-6	0-1	0-1	—
Dartmouth	24	27	0-3	1-0	0-1	Brown (36)
UMass	25	39	0-1	1-0	2-1	Yale (31), Cornell (32), VCU (77)
USC	26	7	0-3	2-4	1-0	Oregon (40)
Notre Dame	27	19	0-4	2-1	1-3	Albany (48)

Boston College has had a great season, but the numbers aren’t kind to a 19-1 team. The Eagles may not get a top four seed. … Towson was unable to solve JMU, but keeps the No. 8 seed. … Expect Loyola to be in Towson’s pod. … Northwestern’s loss to Penn State could bump the Wildcats down a seed line, but we expect NU to host. …

Penn couldn’t figure out Princeton and will be on the road. … Colorado will return to the NCAA Tournament and will be many prognosticator’s picks to be a spoiler and reach the quarterfinals. …

Virginia Tech is a lock for the tournament with five wins against the RPI Top 30. … Denver’s numbers have continued to rise in the computer due to the success of Colorado and Stanford, both of which fell to the Pioneers. … Johns Hopkins is once again on the bubble and hoping the committee values the early season win over Loyola enough to get them in. …

Syracuse has the highest rated strength of schedule among its 10 best opponents (average of 8.0). … Virginia’s loss to Notre Dame pushed it further down the line, but the Cavaliers should be OK on Sunday. … Dartmouth likely doesn’t have enough to get in this year. ...

USC will have one of the longest waits on Sunday. The Trojans might lose out to Johns Hopkins for the final at-large bid. … Penn State’s win over Northwestern pushed them over the edge. … UMass has too many poor losses to gain an at-large bid. Notre Dame will be left out despite having two wins over NCAA teams, Syracuse and Virginia, but a loss to Albany will be the dagger that leaves them out. 

PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

• The committee seeds the top eight teams to host first- and second-round games. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.

• Conference matchups are to be avoided in the first round.

• This year there are 14 automatic qualifiers, which means the two weakest résumés are assigned to a play-in game on Tuesday, May 8 or Wednesday, May 9, on the campus of the stronger team. No at-large teams will be selected for the play-in games. That play-in winner will travel to the No. 7 seed.

• It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.

• The seven and eight seeds host two games in the first round, leading to a second-round game at its home site, while the top six seeds get byes into the second round.

College Park, Md.

Virginia vs. Georgetown
Winner plays at (1) Maryland/BIG TEN

Towson, Md.

Richmond/ATLANTIC 10 at (8) Towson
Loyola vs. Penn State

Chestnut Hill, Mass.

Syracuse vs. Fairfield/MAAC
Winner plays at (4) Boston College

Harrisonburg, Va.

Navy/PATRIOT vs. Penn
Winner plays at (5) James Madison/CAA

Chapel Hill, N.C.

Virginia Tech vs. High Point/BIG SOUTH
Winner plays at (2) North Carolina/ACC

Evanston, Ill.

Mercer/SOUTHERN/Wagner/NEC at (7) Northwestern
Stanford/PAC-12 vs. Denver

Stony Brook, N.Y.

Princeton/IVY vs. Johns Hopkins
Winner plays at (3) Stony Brook/AMERICA EAST

Gainesville, Fla.

Colorado vs. Jacksonville/ATLANTIC SUN
Winner plays at (5) Florida/BIG EAST

Last Four In: Virginia, Denver, Georgetown, Johns Hopkins
First Four Out: USC, Dartmouth, Notre Dame, Massachusetts

Moving In: Navy, Richmond, Wagner, Fairfield, Mercer
Moving Out: USC, UMass, Detroit Mercy, Marist, Bryant

Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (4), Pac-12 (3), Big East (3), CAA (2), Ivy (2)