The ACC has repeatedly staked its claim as the top conference, but this year might be its most dominant showing yet. Currently, US Lacrosse Magazine projects six ACC squads among the top eight seeds for this year’s NCAA tournament.
That’s because of several factors, the first being that these teams have won nearly every non-conference game available to them. And it’s not even close. The ACC is an astounding 33-3 against non-conference foes. Of the three losses, two are to likely NCAA teams.
So while the ACC teams will beat up on each other, and no other conference is close to challenging them, those teams will be hosting plenty of games in the upcoming tournament (unless the format changes).
The other topic continues to be the roller coaster that is the Big Ten. Northwestern clinched its regular-season title with weeks to play before the conference tournament, but the other six teams are trading wins back and forth. How the committee handles this conference will be the Rubik’s Cube of all decisions because the Big Ten is playing no one else. How good are they? We don’t know, and RPI is useless because the record among all seven teams comes out to .500.
The two main criteria the committee will use to parse these final six teams out will be common opponents (which is obvious) and head-to-head (also obvious). They could take out the Northwestern results and do a six-team matrix.
In that scenario, Maryland is the top team (6-2), followed by Johns Hopkins (4-2) and Penn State (4-4). It gets murky with the final three teams — Michigan (3-4), Rutgers (3-5) and Ohio State (3-6). Separating these teams will be difficult, and comparing them to other squads is impossible. It’s very well possible we see something similar to men’s hockey, in which four of seven conference squads were taken. This week we have six because all seven teams have victories over anticipated NCAA teams.
Just missing out this week are Vanderbilt (11-2), Ohio State (3-8), Colorado (5-5), Hofstra (4-4), UConn (8-4) and Richmond (6-0). Vanderbilt is on the outside right now because its only win over a projected NCAA team is High Point, an automatic qualifier. OSU has two wins over Penn State and a victory over Michigan, but a 3-8 record is too far of a stretch.
Colorado has wins over Denver and Arizona State, but if those teams don’t win automatic bids, they’re probably not in the tournament. Same goes for Hofstra (wins over UConn and JMU), UConn (a win over UMass) and Richmond (which has been on pause for a couple weeks). We also project UMass in this week as the A-10 automatic bid on the strength of a superior RPI (14 vs. 41).
Note: First-place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest rated team in the RPI. There are a total of 15 automatic qualifiers and 14 at-large teams to comprise a 29-team field. All records are through April 11.
Automatic Qualifiers (15)
|
|
W-L |
League |
Road |
Notable Wins |
Notable Losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 12-0 | 6-0 | 3-0 | Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame, Duke, Stony Brook, Louisville | --- |
| Northwestern | 10-0 | 10-0 | 5-0 | Maryland, Maryland, Penn State, Penn State, Johns Hopkins, Johns Hopkins, Rutgers, Rutgers | --- |
| Stony Brook | 9-2 | 5-0 | 4-2 | Towson | --- |
| Jacksonville | 6-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | Florida | --- |
| Florida | 9-2 | 6-0 | 5-2 | Louisville | --- |
| Loyola | 7-2 | 4-0 | 3-1 | Drexel | --- |
| Drexel | 10-1 | 3-0 | 7-1 | Towson, Temple | --- |
| Stanford | 6-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | Colorado | --- |
| Denver | 8-1 | 6-0 | 2-1 | --- | --- |
| UMass | 9-2 | 4-0 | 4-2 | --- | --- |
| Fairfield | 6-1 | 6-1 | 2-0 | --- | Siena |
| Robert Morris | 9-2 | 5-0 | 3-2 | --- | --- |
| Mount St. Mary's | 9-2 | 8-0 | 3-2 | --- | --- |
| High Point | 4-6 | 2-0 | 1-4 | --- | Davidson |
| Furman | 8-3 | 2-0 | 4-3 | --- | East Carolina, Davidson |
North Carolina escaped Notre Dame to hold on to No. 1 … Northwestern cruised again in Big Ten play. Just one game remains in league play, and that’s against a Michigan team desperate for a resume-building win on April 18 … Stony Brook has won its America East games by an average of 11.8 goals …
Jacksonville has played just one game since March 21, a 21-7 win over Stetson in its only league outing … Florida rushed by Old Dominion and set up a crucial two-game set against Vanderbilt this weekend … Loyola closes Patriot League play with Bucknell (Saturday) and Navy (April 24) …
Drexel easily handled Navy by nine, and Tuesday’s romp over Towson cements the Dragons’ place atop the CAA ... Stanford hasn’t played since March 31, a 23-8 win at Fresno State, and the Cardinal are slated for games at Arizona State and USC this weekend ... Denver earned a mighty sweep at UConn by narrow margins (in overtime and by four goals) to all-but-effectively sew up the Big East’s top seed …
UMass is the Atlantic 10’s representative with a commanding 21-12 win over Saint Joseph’s … Fairfield stumbled at home to Siena to open up the MAAC race. The Stags are still in first, but the league has inched closer …Robert Morris continued its perfect 5-0 record in MAC play and has five games to go in a league that won’t play a conference tournament …
Mount St. Mary’s is leaps ahead of its NEC competition. The closest game The Mount has played is a five-goal win at Wagner. The two meet again this weekend … High Point took out Campbell to claim the Big South’s top spot. The Panthers have one-goal losses to Jacksonville, James Madison and Davidson, while also playing North Carolina, Vanderbilt and Duke … Furman is now 2-0 in the SoCon and has a big-time matchup with Jacksonville on Friday.
At-Large (22 teams/14 spots)
|
|
W-L |
League |
Road |
Notable Wins |
Notable Losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Syracuse | 8-1 | 5-1 | 3-1 | Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Virginia, Stony Brook, Duke, Loyola | --- |
| Notre Dame | 6-3 | 3-3 | 3-2 | Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Vanderbilt, Robert Morris | --- |
| Boston College | 9-1 | 5-1 | 2-1 | Virginia, Duke, Louisville, UMass, Hofstra | --- |
| Virginia | 8-4 | 3-4 | 2-2 | Duke, Louisville, Richmond, James Madison | --- |
| Duke | 6-5 | 2-5 | 3-3 | Virginia | --- |
| Towson | 8-3 | 0-1 | 3-1 | Loyola, Mount St. Mary's | --- |
| Maryland | 6-4 | 6-4 | 1-4 | Michigan, Michiga, Rutgers, Ohio State, Ohio State | --- |
| Penn State | 4-6 | 4-6 | 0-5 | Maryland, Maryland, Michigan, Rutgers | --- |
| Temple | 8-3 | 4-2 | 5-0 | Towson | --- |
| Louisville | 5-7 | 1-6 | 3-3 | Colorado | --- |
| Elon | 8-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | James Madison, Furman | --- |
| Johns Hopkins | 2-4 | 2-4 | 2-0 | Ohio State, Ohio State | --- |
| Michigan | 3-4 | 3-4 | 1-4 | Penn State, Rutgers, Rutgers | --- |
| Ohio State | 3-8 | 3-8 | 0-5 | Penn State, Penn State, Michigan | --- |
| Colorado | 7-5 | 4-3 | 2-4 | Denver | USC |
| Hofstra | 4-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | UConn, James Madison | --- |
| UConn | 8-2 | 4-0 | 5-2 | UMass | --- |
| Richmond | 6-1 | 2-0 | 3-0 | --- | --- |
| James Madison | 5-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | High Point | --- |
| Arizona State | 7-3 | 4-2 | 2-3 | Colorado | --- |
| Lehigh | 5-3 | 4-1 | 2-1 | --- | --- |
Syracuse handled Virginia last week and gained a comfortable win over Albany Tuesday to solidify a top-2 spot on the strength of its strong schedule and six wins over NCAA-bound teams … Notre Dame came the closest to upsetting North Carolina’s perfect season. A two-game home set against Boston College could decide who gets a top-4 seed. BC has won its past six games …
Virginia has dropped two tough games in the past week to Notre Dame and Syracuse, and it gets harder this weekend with a two-game away series at North Carolina … Duke enters the projection as No. 7 seed with wins over three NCAA teams … Towson has a key win over Loyola but missed a chance to take control of the CAA with a home loss to Drexel on Tuesday night …
Maryland remains in second place in a volatile Big Ten despite a 16-9 loss at Penn State as the Terps slip out of a seeding slot … Penn State reestablished its form it had earlier this season by completing a sweep of Maryland. The Nittany Lions can cement their at-large bid by beating Rutgers and Johns Hopkins, although one win might be enough … Temple is eyeing the No. 2 seed in the American, and with the Towson win in the Owls’ pocket, an NCAA tourney berth is as tangible as it’s been in quite some time …
Louisville couldn’t quite make it two wins in a row, letting a second-half lead slip away to Duke. The Cardinals are the only ACC team without a win over a current NCAA-worthy squad, which will leave them squarely on the bubble soon … Elon’s resume is a little light, as a win over JMU has lost a little luster. The Phoenix need to hold serve against Virginia Tech, JMU and High Point in the next two weeks … Johns Hopkins is back from its nearly month-long pause and grabbed key wins over Penn State and Rutgers to get back into the at-large pool …
Michigan and Rutgers are living right on the bubble. Michigan has an edge with a win over Penn State and a pair over the Scarlet Knights, while Rutgers is relying on an early season win over Hopkins. RU needs a win over Penn State on Thursday or Maryland on Sunday or it will fall out. Michigan must avoid a loss to Ohio State heading into Sunday’s tussle at Northwestern … Vanderbilt is the first projected team out but has four major chances ahead in Florida (Friday/Sunday) and Temple (April 23 and 25) …
At 3-8, Ohio State is living off its sweep of Penn State. The Buckeyes have one more regular season game left (Friday against Michigan) … Colorado has a win over Denver and little else. The Buffs are off until April 23 at Oregon … Hofstra picked up a win over JMU in a rare non-conference game against a conference foe. Chances remain for the Pride against Drexel and Towson to bolster an at-large berth …
UConn got swept by Denver at home and will likely rely on the Big East tournament for an NCAA berth … What do we know about Richmond? The Spiders haven’t played since March 28 and hope to play VCU on Friday … James Madison can notch its first significant victory of the year against Towson on Sunday …
Arizona State could play spoiler in the Pac-12 if the Devils can pick off Stanford on Friday … Lehigh surprised Navy over the weekend and has now won five of six games.
PROJECTED BRACKET
Bracketing procedures:
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The committee seeds the top eight teams to host first- and second-round games. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically, while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
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It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability or public health measures. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
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The top three seeded teams will receive a bye into the second round and host one first-round game between two other teams. The remaining five seeded teams will be bracketed with three unseeded teams.
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Conference matchups are to be avoided in the first round.
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This year, there are 29 slots with 15 automatic qualifiers, unless the Ivy League declares a champion before Selection Sunday, which would make it 16. As it stands now, 14 at-large teams will be selected. There are no play-in games this season.
Chapel Hill, N.C.
Maryland vs. Elon
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina (ACC)
Stony Brook, N.C.
Towson vs. Rutgers
Mount St. Mary’s (NEC) at (8) Stony Brook (AMERICA EAST)
Newton, Mass.
Drexel (CAA) vs. Massachusetts (A-10)
Fairfield (MAAC) at (5) Boston College
Notre Dame, Ind.
Stanford (PAC-12) vs. Michigan
Robert Morris (MAC) at (4) Notre Dame
Syracuse, N.Y.
Penn State vs. Temple
Winner plays at (2) Syracuse
Durham, N.C.
Jacksonville (ASUN) vs. Denver (BIG EAST)
Furman (SOCON) at (7) Duke
Charlottesville, Va.
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Johns Hopkins
High Point (BIG SOUTH) at (6) Virginia
Evanston Ill.
Florida (AAC) vs. Louisville
Winner plays at (3) Northwestern (BIG TEN)
Last Four In: Elon, Johns Hopkins, Michigan, Rutgers
First Six Out: Vanderbilt, Ohio State, Colorado, Hofstra, UConn, Richmond
Moving In: High Point, UMass, Johns Hopkins
Moving Out: Campbell, Richmond, Ohio State
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (7), Big Ten (6), CAA (3), American (2)