The pandemic has changed everything, and with less than five weeks to go, the NCAA Selection Committee faces a unique experience. The committee will still use its objective measures, but some guesswork has to take place.
So what should we expect? Lots has changed since the 2019 tournament, including conference formations and eligibility requirements. Let’s go over what will be different about selecting this field. (Much of which can be found in the NCAA Pre-Championship Manual).
Automatic qualifiers: 15 (not including the Ivy League)
The number of teams: 29, up from 26 (after the play-in games). The top three teams will receive a bye into the second round with the other 26 teams facing off.
Eligibility: Teams do not have to be .500 or better.
Some things will remain the same, such as the site format (top eight seeds hosting 3- or 4-team pods, leading into quarterfinal weekend and eventually a championship weekend at Towson’s Johnny Unitas Stadium). Now, this could be subject to change.
Another thing that will remain the same (kind of) in guiding the committee’s work are the objective criteria the committee will use to place teams in the field, including RPI evaluation, head-to-head competition, results versus common opponents, significant wins and losses and evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on a schedule. With the lack of non-conference play, some of these will be moot. For example, evaluating the RPI of a Big Ten team against anyone else is pointless, as the Big Ten isn’t playing anyone out of conference.
This is where the guesswork will come in. Head-to-head and records against same opponents will be primary ranking systems within conferences, with RPI being used if two teams have played comparable schedules. Brackets in other sports can be a guiding force on how this may play out (see: See men’s and women’s hockey, and women’s volleyball. Both soccer tournaments will be fielded later this month and could shed some more light on how they use data in similar circumstances).
Unlike the NCAA men’s lacrosse tournament, which is expected to be held in one geographic region like basketball, soccer and volleyball, the women’s lacrosse tournament is expected to be hosted at campus sites until the semifinals.
This will certainly be a year of apples and oranges.
Notes: First-place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest rated team in the RPI (for this week, head-to-head or other factors were used. Official RPI is released next week). There are a total of 15 automatic qualifiers and 14 at-large teams to comprise a 29-team field. All records are through April 6.
Automatic Qualifiers (15)
|
|
W-L |
League |
Road |
Notable Wins |
Notable Losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 11-0 | 5-0 | 2-0 | Syracuse, Boston College, Stony Brook, Duke, Florida, Louisville | --- |
| Northwestern | 9-0 | 9-0 | 4-0 | Maryland, Maryland, Penn State, Penn State | --- |
| Stony Brook | 9-2 | 5-0 | 4-2 | Towson | --- |
| Jacksonville | 6-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | Florida | --- |
| Florida | 9-2 | 6-0 | 5-2 | Louisville | --- |
| Loyola | 7-2 | 4-0 | 3-1 | Drexel, Navy | --- |
| Richmond | 6-1 | 2-0 | 3-0 | --- | --- |
| Drexel | 8-1 | 1-0 | 4-1 | Temple | --- |
| Stanford | 6-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | Colorado | --- |
| Denver | 6-1 | 4-0 | 0-1 | --- | --- |
| Fairfield | 6-0 | 6-0 | 2-0 | --- | --- |
| Robert Morris | 8-2 | 4-0 | 3-2 | --- | --- |
| Mount St. Mary's | 7-2 | 6-0 | 4-1 | --- | --- |
| Furman | 6-3 | 2-0 | 2-3 | --- | East Carolina, Davidson |
| Campbell | 4-5 | 2-0 | 2-2 | --- | East Carolina, Davidson |
North Carolina’s walloping of Syracuse cemented the Tar Heels’ top spot … Northwestern is the best team in the Big Ten, where seemingly every other team has beaten each other … Stony Brook had two chances at big wins against UNC and Syracuse, but came up empty handed …
Jacksonville surprised Florida a few weeks back. The Dolphins are a perfect 6-0 with three one-goal victories … Florida gets the nod over Vanderbilt for now. The two tangle twice in Gainesville next weekend … Loyola already clinched the Patriot League’s South Division title with three games to play …
Richmond has just one loss on its resume, a six-goal setback to Virginia in February, and leads its division in the Atlantic 10 … Drexel has been a pleasant surprise out of the CAA and has taken out four fellow Philadelphia foes in non-conference play … Stanford and Colorado were set to duke it out again in Palo Alto, but that game has been canceled. The Cardinal took an OT thriller on March 20 …
Denver and UConn are set to square off in Storrs this weekend to determine who might grab the top spot in the Big East … Fairfield is the decisive leader in the MAAC. The game to circle is April 24 against Marist … Mount St. Mary’s is perfect in NEC play with an 11.3 goals per game scoring margin …
Furman has played just one SoCon game but has the best overall record (6-3) … If the postseason started today, Campbell would be the only one in it with a losing record. Wednesday’s contest against High Point could ultimately decide who is the Big South’s top seed in the conference tournament.
At-Large (22 teams/14 spots)
|
|
W-L |
League |
Road |
Notable Wins |
Notable Losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Syracuse | 7-1 | 4-1 | 3-1 | Notre Dame, Notre dame, Stony Brook, Duke, Loyola | --- |
| Notre Dame | 6-2 | 3-2 | 3-2 | Virginia, Duke, Louisville, Vanderbilt, Robert Morris | --- |
| Boston College | 8-1 | 4-1 | 1-1 | Virginia, Duke, Louisville, UMass | --- |
| Virginia | 8-3 | 3-3 | 2-1 | Duke, Louisville, Richmond, James Madison | --- |
| Duke | 6-5 | 2-5 | 3-3 | Virginia | --- |
| Maryland | 5-3 | 5-3 | 1-3 | Michigan, Michigan, Ohio State, Ohio State | --- |
| Michigan | 3-4 | 3-4 | 1-4 | Penn State, Rutgers, Rutgers | --- |
| Towson | 7-2 | 0-0 | 3-1 | Loyola, Mount St. Mary's | --- |
| Louisville | 5-6 | 1-5 | 3-3 | Colorado | --- |
| Penn State | 3-5 | 3-5 | 0-4 | Maryland, Michigan, Rutgers | --- |
| Navy | 4-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | --- | --- |
| Colorado | 5-5 | 3-3 | 0-4 | Denver | --- |
| Elon | 7-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 | James Madison, Campbell, Furman | --- |
| James Madison | 5-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | --- | --- |
| Ohio State | 3-7 | 3-7 | 0-4 | Michigan, Penn State, Penn State | --- |
| Rutgers | 3-5 | 3-5 | 1-3 | Ohio State, Ohio State, Johns Hopkins | --- |
| Temple | 6-3 | 2-2 | 3-0 | Towson | --- |
| Vanderbilt | 11-2 | 6-0 | 4-2 | Colorado | --- |
| UConn | 8-2 | 4-0 | 5-2 | Albany, UMass | --- |
| Albany | 7-4 | 4-1 | 1-4 | --- | --- |
| USC | 7-4 | 4-2 | 3-3 | Colorado | --- |
| UMass | 8-2 | 3-0 | 4-2 | --- | --- |
| Johns Hopkins | 2-4 | 2-4 | 2-0 | Ohio State, Ohio State | --- |
| Arizona State | 7-3 | 4-2 | 2-3 | Colorado | --- |
Syracuse has the best at-large profile despite its loss to UNC … Riding a four-game winning streak, Notre Dame looks to turn an upset of top-ranked UNC this weekend … Boston College’s only blemish is a March 8 loss to Carolina, currently sitting tied for second in the ACC ...
Virginia has an interesting resume with a pair of blowout losses (BC, Duke) with some tight victories (by one over Louisville, by one over Virginia Tech and by three over Duke) … Duke’s lone quality victory is over Virginia, who it split with, as the Blue Devils sport a 2-5 conference record … Maryland is the first of six Big Ten teams featured in the at-large pool and the only one of those six to have a winning record ...
The committee is going to have a heck of a time parsing out the bottom five Big Ten teams (Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, Rutgers and Johns Hopkins), as they’re all below .500. Only one of them (PSU) has beaten Maryland, but the Nittany Lions got swept by Ohio State. Wednesday’s Penn State-Hopkins game will clear the picture a little bit, but it’s possible the Big Ten parity could be a boon and get four or five teams in the tournament …
Towson’s victory over Loyola will pay dividends if the Tigers can’t capture the CAA crown … Louisville is here on the strength of a win over Colorado, which is the case for several other teams … Navy had one shot at Loyola missed, but the Mids get another later this month …
Temple has a sneaky good resume with a win over Towson earlier this year … Vanderbilt is firmly on the bubble with 11 wins, but none of them were over a projected NCAA team … UConn is in a similar position but has Denver coming up, which could bump them into the field …
Colorado’s entire resume rests on its win over Denver. Unfortunately, a rematch with Stanford was canceled, so another date with Denver looms as a big opportunity to get back into the field … Elon passed its first test early in the season with a win over JMU ... Speaking of which, James Madison has faced some good teams but has no major wins to show for it …
Albany is the second-best team in the America East and likely needs a win over Stony Brook to even think about making the field … UMass has missed its opportunities thus far and won’t see a potential game against Richmond until the A-10 final due to the conference divisional setup … USC and Arizona State round out the Pac-12 possibilities.
PROJECTED BRACKET
Bracketing procedures:
-
The committee seeds the top eight teams to host first- and second-round games with the expectation that they’ll host those games. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed geographically while keeping bracket integrity when possible.
-
It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability or public health measures. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.
-
The top three seeded teams will receive a bye into the second round and host one first-round game between two other teams. The remaining five seeded teams will be bracketed with three unseeded teams.
-
Conference matchups are to be avoided in the first round.
-
This year, there are 29 slots with 15 automatic qualifiers, unless the Ivy League declares a champion before Selection Sunday, which would make it 16. As it stands now, 14 at-large teams will be selected. There are no play-in games this season.
Chapel Hill, N.C.
Richmond (A-10) vs. Furman (SOCON)
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina (ACC)
Stony Brook, N.Y.
Rutgers at (8) Stony Brook (A-EAST)
Florida (AMERICAN) vs. Drexel (CAA)
Newton, Mass.
Fairfield (MAAC) at (5) Boston College
Jacksonville (ASUN) vs. Temple
Notre Dame, Ind.
Robert Morris (MAC) at (4) Notre Dame
Michigan vs. Denver (BIG EAST)
Evanston, Ill.
Stanford (PAC-12) vs. Louisville
Winner plays at (2) Northwestern
Charlottesville, Va.
Campbell (BIG SOUTH) at (7) Virginia
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Elon
College Park, Md.
Mount St. Mary’s (NEC) at (6) Maryland
Ohio State vs. Duke
Syracuse, N.Y.
Penn State vs. Towson
Winner plays at (3) Syracuse
Last Four In: Elon, Ohio State, Rutgers, Temple
First Six Out: Johns Hopkins, Navy, James Madison, Vanderbilt, Colorado, UConn
Moving In: N/A
Moving Out: N/A
Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (7), Big Ten (5), CAA (3), American (2), Patriot (2)